Every Possible Way the Falcons’ NFC South Race Can End

The Atlanta Falcons enter Week 18 with a lot to gain and lose heading into 2026, depending on what else happens in the NFC South.

FLOWERY BRANCH – The NFC South has been a wonderfully wacky mess in 2025, and how it shapes out will have a major influence on 2026.

The Atlanta Falcons have the chance to finish with a three-way tie for first place with the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, yet they have been eliminated from the playoffs for a month. If the chips fall differently in Week 18, the Falcons could also finish second or in dead last. 

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On top of that, the pair of teams who have combined to sit at 7-1 over the last four weeks are the ones who are eliminated. The two playing for the division have combined to be 2-6. 

Make sense? No? 

It will soon. 

As confusing as this season has been for the Falcons (and everyone else down south), it will all come to an understanding this weekend. To help get an idea of all that can happen, Falcons OnSi took the time to put together the different scenarios and how it could impact the teams in the division 

Firstly, how the teams finish in the division will impact a handful of games for each of them are scheduled to play in 2026. The NFC South is paired up with the AFC West, the NFC West, and the NFC East, meaning they will play the team who ends up finishing in the same standings slot as they do. 

• If the Falcons finish in second, they would face the Chargers, Cowboys, and the second-place team between the Rams/49ers/Seahawks.

• If the Falcons finish in third, they would face the Chiefs, Commanders, and the third-place team between the Rams/49ers.

• If the Falcons finish in fourth, they would face the Raiders, Giants, and Cardinals. 

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With this in mind, it becomes a lot clearer why this weekend matters so much for 2026. So, let’s break down the clinching scenarios. 

• If the Panthers win and the Saints win = The Panthers are in first, the Saints are in second, the Buccaneers are third, and the Falcons are fourth.

• If the Panthers win and the Falcons win = The Panthers are in first, the Falcons are in second, the Buccaneers are third, and the Saints are fourth.

• If the Buccaneers win and the Saints win = The Buccaneers are in first, the Panthers are in second, the Saints are third, and the Falcons are fourth.

• If the Buccaneers win and the Falcons win = The Panthers are in first, the Buccaneers are in second, the Falcons are third, and the Saints are fourth.

The Falcons and Saints are set to kick off at 1:00 p.m. on Sunday in Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the Buccaneers and Panthers kick off at 4:30 p.m. on Saturday at Raymond-James Stadium.