Falcons Projected to Lose RB Tyler Allgeier to NFC South Rival

The Atlanta Falcons saw Tyler Allgeier's rushing yardage drop in each of his seasons during his rookie contract.

But that happened in large part because of the emergence of fellow Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. The last thing the Falcons probably want is Allgeier to sign with a direct competitor.

NFL insider Greg Auman, though, sees that as a strong possibility. In his recent 2026 NFL free agency primer, Auman predicted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to ink Allgeier to a deal this March.

"Allgeier, 25, has operated in the shadow of Bijan Robinson the last three years, playing second fiddle after rushing for 1,000-plus yards as a rookie in 2022," Auman wrote. "He's averaged a good-not-great 4.3 yards per carry on the way to 719 rushing yards per season, and he's averaged 155 carries since Robinson's arrival, so there's less wear on him as well.

"Could he land with former Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson in Tampa? His 18 career touchdowns show that coaches can trust him near the goal line."

In 67 career NFL games, Allgeier has rushed for 2,876 yards and 18 touchdowns. He's averaged 4.3 yards per carry and also contributed 61 receptions for 516 yards.

Why Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier Could Land With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As Auman mentioned, with the Buccaneers, Allgeier would reunite with former Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.

Robinson's play-calling is part of why Allgeier didn't get the ball as much the past two years. Over two seasons in Robinson's offense, Allgeier averaged 140 carries per season.

In his first two seasons with former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, Allgeier averaged 198 carries per campaign.

But it probably still makes sense for Allgeier to go to an offensive play-caller he is familiar with from his professional career. The Buccaneers also need to find better rushing production to support quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Tampa Bay was ranked 21st in rushing yards and 26th in rushing yards per attempt. Second-year running back Bucky Irving led the Buccaneers with only 588 rushing yards last season.

Irving saw his efficiency plummet from 5.4 yards per carry in 2024 to 3.4 in 2025.

Irving will return for the Buccaneers next season. But Tampa Bay's other top two running backs, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, might not. White and Tucker are unrestricted and restricted free agents, respectively, this offseason.

The Falcons and Buccaneers had polar opposite seasons in 2025. The Falcons started very slowly and fell out of the playoff hunt before Thanksgiving. The Buccaneers didn't suffer elimination until Week 18, but both teams finished 8-9.

In a perfect world, the Falcons don't want one of their former playmakers, even one they don't find worth re-signing, to land inside the division.

The NFC South champion Carolina Panthers also finished 8-9 last season. Clearly, things are very tight in the division.

Allgeier isn't a difference maker like Robinson, but a playmaker switching sides in the rivalries could help begin to tip the NFC South scale in a certain direction.