New York Giants Open as 10.5-Point Underdogs Against Miami
In what was the franchise’s most abysmal display of football in some time in the Week 4 nightcap, the New York Giants faltered again in primetime, losing 24-3 on Monday night to the Seattle Seahawks to fall to 1-3 and with two tricky matchups on deck int he weeks ahead.
The first of those matchups comes Sunday in the Florida heat and humidity of Hard Rock Stadium, where the Giants will visit the Miami Dolphins for the first time since 2021. And with the Giants having been outscored 125-46 in their first four contests, the Giants have done little to convince the odds makers they're worthy of anything less than a double-digit underdog point spread.
According to FanDuel’s opening lines for Week 5, the Giants are 10.5-point underdogs. The opening line currently stands as the largest margin in the NFL’s slate of games next weekend, but there’s much more to it than meets the eye.
Miami has been on an absolute tear offensively this season, posting 28 or more points in three of their first four stints, including a whopping 70 points scored in their trouncing of Denver in Week 3.
As much as that one performance could be an outlier, there hasn’t been nearly as many positive numbers to take from the Giants offense to date. Short of their 31-point, second-half comeback against Arizona, Big Blue has notched just 15 points against higher weight-class teams, and every aspect of their operation has been dysfunctional.
Behind their woeful offensive line that allowed 11 sacks on Monday night and the lack of a passing threat, the Giants have fallen to 31st in the NFL in total yards accumulated and 28th in first downs.
With Daniel Jones having no time to throw the ball and six interceptions on the season, the team is close to bottoming out in passing yards, touchdowns, and average yards per play (4.0), forcing the offense to become dependent on the run, which hasn’t worked that much better without Saquon Barkley.
Whereas the Giants seem to crawl, the Dolphins march down the field behind the flashy arm of Tua Tagovailoa and the playmakers in their receiving corps. They lead the league in points, total yards, first downs, passing yards, and average yards per attempt (9.3) and are a frequent visitor to the endzone with ten scores on the year. In total, Miami's aerial production more than doubles that of New York entering this matchup, and that’s a cause for concern against a defense that struggles to get off the field.
The Dolphins have also dominated on the ground with their duo of running backs in Raheem Mostert, who had a four-touchdown outing two weeks ago, and De’von Achane. In Miami’s 70-20 victory, the two combined for almost 300 yards rushing and five touchdowns up the middle, and both now average over 5.0 yards per rush when they touch the football.
Those efforts have placed the Dolphins at the throne in every rushing category except attempts (14th) and helped the team extend drives and boast the second-best red zone scoring percentage in a four-week span.
While some clarity may come later in the week, the Giants’ underdog status continues to be impacted by the growing list of injuries to critical players on both sides of the ball. Barkley and left tackle Andrew Thomas’s rehab from ankle and hamstring injuries continue to plague the offense, and the offensive line took more hits on Monday when center John Michael Schmitz left early in the first quarter with a shoulder issue.
The Giants have done nothing but play musical chairs with their offensive line, and that is not something that will be sustainable if they want to compete with one of the stellar, well-coached programs unleashing itself in Miami. The hope is that some of these names return and the spread closes up a little bit, but even at full strength, there still seems to be a gap between these two franchises heading into Sunday.
The Giants hold a 7-3 advantage in ten total meetings over the Dolphins, including a 4-1 record in the last five contests. Their last visit to Miami saw a 20-9 struggle against a less talented opposition in 2021, and if the trends continue into Sunday, this appearance could be even worse than that.
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