Giants Over/Under Total Wins Set; Will They Exceed It?

FanDuel Sportsbook has New York’s under/over at 8.5 total wins next season. Is it too high or too low?

Author:
Quinn Slaven
Publish date:
Apr 9, 2023 11:00 AM EDT

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The NFL roster-building season is about to head to its most important phase in a few short weeks: the NFL draft, where teams will add the finishing touches on their 2023 lineups.

But despite rosters being far from set ahead of Kickoff 2023 in September, that hasn't stopped the oddsmakers from setting some early over/under win totals for the various teams.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the New York Giants, who delivered a surprising 9-7-1 season and a postseason berth last year, have an over/under win total of 8.5 wins. As compared to the Cowboys (9.5 wins) and Eagles (10.5 wins), that would seem to suggest the Giants still have a ways to go before closing the gap with their two division rivals, although Fan Duel does list the Giants ahead of the Commanders (6.5 wins).

In looking at the upcoming slate of opponents, the Giants have as good a chance as anyone of topping their projected over/under total. As noted, there is still the draft--general manager Joe Schoen has ten picks to further fill out the roster. The Giants also have most of their coaching staff back from last year, with two exceptions (running backs coach DeAndre Smith and assistant offensive line coach Tony Sparano, Jr).

Here is a very early look at those teams on the Giants schedule and where each opponent currently stands ahead of the draft.

Dallas Cowboys

Last season, the Cowboys stole two one-score games from the Giants. In the second contest, a home game for Dallas in November on Thanksgiving, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott gave away two interceptions and overthrew receivers all afternoon. Fortunately for him, an exceptional ground game kept them in it.

Without running back Ezekiel Elliott, who was cut in a salary cap-related move, and with questions regarding whether Tony Pollard (leg) will be full speed, plus the departure of tight end Dalton Schultz in free agency, the Giants, who have bolstered their run defense should be better equipped to handle their division rival in what we think will be a split series.

Washington Commanders

The Giants shared their lone tie last year with the Commanders, who, based on the stat sheet, probably should have won that game after outperforming the Giants in passing yards, rushing yards, first downs, and time of possession.

The difference in 2023 that warrants two Giants victories is each team’s trajectory. Giants head coach Brian Daboll will be in his second season, giving the offense a chance to settle into a familiar system.

Commanders coach Ron Rivera is entering his fourth season and is on the hot seat for failing to deliver consistent results. Washington is also without a definitive starting quarterback as both of last year’s signal callers, Carson Wentz, and Taylor Heinicke, have moved on.

The Giants should be better on both sides of the ball to where they come away with a sweep of the season series for the first time since 2018.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles dominated the Giants in 2022, winning all three games, including the Divisional Round playoff contest. While the Eagles did lose some talent in free agency, the core of their roster is returning mostly intact.

Much like the Cowboys, the Eagles rushing attack harmed the Giants most. In the playoffs, tandem backs Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders combined for two touchdowns and more than 200 yards. Their efforts also contributed to the Eagles’ dominating time-of-possession, commanding 35 minutes compared to the Giants’ 24.

Sanders signed with the Panthers for the 2023 campaign, but with an elite offensive line, Philadelphia can plug just about any runner into the scheme and find success.

Meanwhile, the Giants, who want to close the gap with the Eagles, still have a way to go before accomplishing that. Given how things currently stand, the Eagles will likely claim another two victories this upcoming season.

New York Jets

If rumors ring true and the Jets acquire long-time Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, then good for them. But even with Rodgers, that doesn't mean the Jets will have the upper hand.

Not only will the Jets have sacrificed significant capital to acquire the 39-year-old, but he’s coming off one of his worst seasons. In 2022, Rodgers’ quarterback rating was in the dumps at 39.3. Once a league MVP, 25 starting quarterbacks had better ratings.

Playing at home, the Giants, who beat Rodgers last year, allowed only 188.8 passing yards per game last season, the fifth-best in the league. But the Jets have a stellar defense that, if healthy, will pose a good challenge for the Giants offense, making this game one that could go either way.

New England Patriots

All is not well in New England, where there have been reports of head coach Bill Belichick having grown tired of waiting for quarterback Mac Jones to blossom. There have also been reports that Belichick might consider another option at quarterback.

Still, this is a Belichick-coached team, and the one-time Giants defensive coordinator is not one to roll over and go away even though his teams have missed the postseason in two of the last three seasons.

Even if the Patriots make a change at quarterback by going for a younger prospect out of college, it will probably take time for things to jell, giving the Giants as good a chance as ever of recording what's been a rare victory over the future Hall of Fame head coach's team.

Los Angeles Rams

The bills are due for the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl. According to Over The Cap, the Rams freed up $58.2 million in cap space this year, more than any other team, after cutting ties with cornerback Jalen Ramsey, linebacker Bobby Wagner, and edge rusher Leonard Floyd.

As for remaining stars, quarterback Matthew Stafford is nearing the end of his career and suffered a debilitating elbow injury last season. The team is reportedly trying to trade wide receiver Allen Robinson after his disappointing 2022 season.

If Los Angeles is entering a full rebuild, as appears to be the case, the Giants should be favored to win this match-up.

Arizona Cardinals

Sticking with the theme of rebuilding franchises, the Arizona Cardinals have the lowest expected total wins of any NFL team for 2023.

Arizona has a new head coach (Jonathan Gannon) after firing head coach Kliff Kingsbury. They also have a new general manager and a big-time question mark at quarterback, where incumbent Kyler Murray is recovering from a late-season ACL injury.

There are also reports of Arizona looking to move star receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who, if he doesn't draw in a trade, the team may cut.

The Cardinals are back to square one, while the Giants are much further ahead in their build. On paper, this should be a Giants win, again, assuming the health factor of the Giants when the meeting comes up on the schedule.

Seattle Seahawks

Few teams make the playoffs and wind up with a top-five pick the following year. Enter the Seahawks, who, after trading quarterback Russell Wilson to the Broncos for a haul of picks and then benefitting from Geno Smith’s comeback season, are now in a uniquely strong position for 2023.

The team currently holds the fifth and 20th overall picks in the draft. They also reunited with linebacker Bobby Wagner and retained the key components of a top-10 scoring offense.

Seattle has won five of its last six games against the Giants, including a 27-13 victory last season in Seattle. The last time the Giants, who this year host Seattle, beat the Seahawks in East Rutherford was in 2008. As to who currently has the competitive edge, we'd say it's a toss-up.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are a rebuilding team in denial. After failing to make the playoffs last season, the Packers will likely turn to three-year backup Jordan Love to revitalize the franchise as the marriage with future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers appears to have reached the point of no return.

Their front office has also struck out on multiple player acquisitions, including an attempt to take star wide receiver DJ Moore from the Carolina Panthers last year. Right now, it's fair to question if the Packers have an identity or are stuck between being a contender versus a team in transition.

New Orleans Saints

In an otherwise downtrodden division, the New Orleans Saints look formidable in 2023.

Veteran quarterback Derek Carr should breathe new life into an offense with impressive firepower, including wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara. New Orleans also boasts a top-10 defense from 2022.

Collectively, the Saints will make Caesars Superdome an especially tough venue this year. The Giants split road games in 2022, going 4-4. However, New York’s victories were close calls, and the team was crushed in the point differential at -11.

Las Vegas Raiders

Carr’s former team, the Raiders, should be less formidable. After going 6-11 last year, the team brought in injury-prone quarterback Jimmy Garropolo to take the offense's reins. Garropolo has played one complete season in his nine-year NFL career, but to his credit, he made the most of his availability, throwing for 3,978 yards and 27 touchdowns.

Should Garropolo remain healthy and be effective for head coach Josh McDaniels, he’ll be without one of the Raiders’ best weapons, tight end Darren Waller, now with the Giants.

Defensively, the Raiders, under coordinator Patrick Graham (formerly with the Giants), gave up the seventh most points per game last season and fell in the middle of the road for offensive production, creating a negative point differential. The early odds probably favor the Giants if they continue on the upswing as they did last year.

Miami Dolphins

Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniels is an offensive-minded coach with an impressive wide receiver corps featuring stars Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Together, they helped the team post the sixth-best passing attack in the NFL.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Dolphins recently acquired one of the league’s top corners, Jalen Ramsey, to support one of their few weak spots.

While the Giants have added some offensive weapons, it remains to be seen if they can do a better job of stretching the field with deep throws to keep up with scoring shoot-outs.

Both franchises are on their way up, but the Dolphins seem to be the more complete team on paper before the draft.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are nearing the end of a long, heartbreaking championship window. Last year, Buffalo posted the third-highest-scoring offense and allowed the fourth fewest points on defense.

Though prone to upsets, the Bills have won at least ten games in the past four seasons. The advantage for the Giants is that head coach Brian Daboll has as good of an understanding of Buffalo's key personnel as anyone, having once been the offensive coordinator for head coach Sean McDermott.

Whether that results in any kind of advantage remains to be seen, and whether this game gets a bump to prime-time given the Giants-Bills connections could also be a factor that wouldn't necessarily be in the Giants' favor given their struggles in prime-time. For now, let's give the pre-draft edge to the Bills.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers boast another juggernaut roster, the team looking to pick up where it left off last year before being toppled by the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship game. Of the Giants' 2023 opponents, the 49ers have the highest projected win total at 11.5, according to the odds makers.

The Giants run defense has improved with acquisitions like linebacker Bobby Okereke and nose tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches. Still, San Francisco’s offense features one of the best backfields in the league. Running back Christian McCaffrey is in a class of his own, while backup Elijah Mitchell has no problem keeping the sticks moving.= if called upon.

Meanwhile, San Francisco's defense claimed the number one spot last year and will return foundational pieces, including edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and safety Talanoa Hufanga.

The team still needs to sort out its quarterback situation after trading Jimmy Garropolo to the Raiders. Brock Purdy and Trey Lance are both coming off season-ending injuries, but whoever gets the nod will benefit from a stacked supporting cast around them.