Eye on the Opponent: Packers QB Jordan Love Starting to Blossom
The New York Giants have been enjoying the inspiring story that has developed over the past few weeks with quarterback Tommy DeVito taking over the offensive huddle.
On the other side of the field, they will soon square off with another gunslinger who has blossomed into the replacement starter his franchise hoped he would become. That guy is Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who is building towards a career-record season and imminent playoff push.
Selected 26th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft out of Utah State, Love was recruited by the Packers to grow into the heir-apparent role for then-starter Aaron Rodgers and assume his spot at the end of his Green Bay tenure. The first two years were difficult for the former first-rounder, who saw just ten games under center and threw for 606 yards and three touchdowns behind a learning curve and regime changes.
With Rodgers departing for the New York Jets in the offseason, Love’s third year and first as the full-time starter began with mixed reviews as the Packers had a 2-5 slump to start the 2023 season. However, in the last three games, the tide has turned for the 25-year-old, and he and the Green Bay offense have found a noticeable groove with the calendar hitting December.
Coming off the heels of their 29-17 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday, the Packers are still posting their worst average points of Love’s tenure at 21.5, which is good for 17th in the league. Yet, the quarterback’s metrics have looked immensely different from the first half of the season and juiced the team’s production in their quest to compete for a spot in the NFC playoff picture.
Through 12 games this fall, Love holds 250 completions for 2,866 yards, 22 touchdowns, ten interceptions, and an average throw of 7.0 yards--all career-highs in the process. After passing 250 yards in only one game of his first nine, he has surpassed 267 yards in the last four contests, including 322 yards in Week 11, to go 3-1 and place the Packers within a game of the final wild-card spot.
Love started the year as one of the hottest quarterbacks inside the 20-yard line, with six touchdowns thrown in his first two contests as the lead signal caller. He has since reclaimed that strength and notched at least two touchdowns in the same four-game span, including three touchdowns in each of his last two performances.
The third-year pro has even contributed to the Packers ground attack with 39 carries for 231 yards (5.4-yard average) and two touchdowns via his feet. His rushing effort has helped the offense extend drives, force defenses to respect the run to free up space for the wide receivers to shine, and protect the football with zero turnovers in four of the last five weeks.
Adding all these elements up, Love has lifted the Packers offense to top-20 status in all major passing categories, including sixth in passing touchdowns and 14th in average yards per play. Green Bay also boasts top-10 numbers in third and fourth down conversion percentage, a 52.4% red zone scoring percentage, and an average of 1.94 points per drive, the latter being significantly higher than the 31st place standing the Giants own after their bye week.
On Monday night, Love will visit a Giants defense that has turned up the heat on opposing quarterbacks and forced erroneous decisions that have impacted the Giants' recent winning ways. In their two victories over Washington and New England before the bye, New York forced nine total turnovers and held both opponents to under 20 points, providing a big safeguard to an offensive unit that has only scored 30+ points in two games this season.
The biggest part of their defensive success has been shutting down the threat of the deep ball and making the quarterback pay for his vertical gambles with their secondary. That element will be crucial if the Giants want to leave victorious again, as Love has been emboldened to take shots with an arsenal of pass catchers who can take a route tree and turn it into chunk yardage all over the field.
Per PFF’s advanced stats, Love holds impressive markers in both big-time-throw percentage (5.1%) and average distance of target at 9.5 yards on the season. His wide receivers do a good job at attacking the football and securing it from potential harm, giving the gunslinger a 2.3% turnover-worthy play rate and a dropped ball rate of 7.4%, which has dropped as low as 3.8% in recent weeks.
Taking advantage of a weakened Chiefs secondary last week, Love posted an average throw of 7.4 yards for his fifth-largest average in 12 starts. His average distance of target touched 8.2 yards with a big-time play rate of 10.8%, a factor of letting it loose to his trusty targets in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, who reeled in big catches that put enough points on the board to defeat the defending champions.
Love’s bold passing trends have been furthered by the premier pass blocking on the Packers’ offensive line that features two starters in the 94% percentile and ranks second in team pass block win rate. With stalwarts Rasheed Walker and Josh Meyers holding 32% or higher double-team win rates, their quarterback has enjoyed a career-best 2.74-second time-to-throw average and extended plays out of the pocket to convert at will to what is now a 149 lump sum of first down conversions.
It remains to be seen how that front line reacts to the Giants pass rush that stands 11th in team win rate and features two studs of their own in Kayvon Thibodeaux and, if he plays, Dexter Lawrence II, who ranks top-5 in the aforementioned category. If that group can’t get enough pressure on Love to stifle his passes, it’ll be up to the secondary to show its tightest and cleanest coverage to prevent the deep game from doing damage quickly.
In the end, that is the defensive key to cooling off the red-hot Packers and Jordan Love and pasting a third straight victory into the win column for New York. Slow down the aerial offense, make them fight for the yardage in front of them, respect the run via Love’s dual-threat skills, and place the offense in positions to be the red zone visitors on Monday night, and the Giants could exit this intriguing matchup with another big upset.
The team has the opportunity to keep the warm and fuzzy story of Tommy DeVito alive and give him his shining moment in the primetime spotlight against a more quality opponent than before. If that moment comes to fruition, it’ll mean silencing another quarterback and his squad that is flourishing in all the right ways at just the right time.
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