Ways the Giants Can Measure Improvement in 2023
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With the New York Giants schedule finally known, there has been no shortage of odds makers predicting over/under totals or writers predicting what games the Giants will win and which ones they’ll lose.
With all due respect to those folks, we’ll refrain from doing so, at least until we see what the regular-season roster looks like—and not just the Giants’, but also those of their opponents.
But what we will try to do is define what we would consider as a “successful” season in this Year 2 of the Brian Daboll-Joe Schoen regime.
Margin of Victory. Most people seem to be zeroed in on the number of wins the Giants will achieve in 2023 and whether that total will exceed the surprising nine-win total the team managed to record against the third-easiest schedule last year.
ESPN's sports betting analysts have set the over/under for 2023, a year in which the Giants are tied for the fourth hardest schedule, at 8.5, with schedule analyst Mike Clay predicting a 7.5 over/under. Erin Dolan, part of the sports betting team, opines it's best to "stay away" from that projected win total, concluding:
In Brian Daboll's first season as head coach, he led the Giants to their first playoff win in more than ten years. The Giants' surprising nine wins last season also saw the Cowboys steal two one-score games, and the Commanders account for a tie. The 2023 schedule could test this team, or the Giants could surprise bettors again. Either way, I want no part of this.
In 2022, the Eagles, Cowboys, and Commanders all had easier schedules (based on strength of schedule) than the Giants. Yet ESPN feels pretty good about the over for the Cowboys (9.5 games) and Eagles ( 10.5).
The only conclusion that can be taken is that ESPN believes the Giants did not close the talent gap with the Eagles and Cowboys enough to challenge them in the competitive column.
If true, we think that's a premature conclusion because rosters are not yet set, and all it takes is for a major injury or two to completely change the complexion of a roster. But we digress.
The average team scoring margin is the stat that needs to be most improved and will lead to the Giants having a better chance of reaching the over on their projected win total (and which will show improvement).
According to Team Rankings, the Giants had an average scoring margin of -1.6 points (22nd in the league), while Philly and Dallas had an average scoring margin of 9.3 and 7.1, respectively.
In other words, the Giants played too many close games last year. Five of their nine wins were by seven or fewer points, and only three of their losses were by one score or less. The Giants can begin showing improvement by not only winning those close games but also by doing so by more than one score.
Run Defense. At the end of last season, it was as plain as day that the Giants run defense was lacking. This issue came about as a combination of a lack of depth behind starters Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence and the unsuccessful rotation of linebackers the team went through to stop the bleeding.
When all was said and done, the Giants finished 27th against the run, allowing opponents an average of 22.6 rushing yards per game above the league average and a whopping 5.23 rushing yards per play, 31st in the league. If that's not proof enough, consider that in five of their last eight regular-season games last year, opponents easily recorded double-digit first downs by running the ball.
General manager Joe Schoen made addressing the run defense a top priority this off-season, adding defensive linemen Rakeem Nunez-Roches and A'Shawn Robinson up front and linebacker Bobby Okereke behind them. Hopefully, those additions will better equip the Giants to stop the Eagles and Cowboys rushing games, which finished fifth and ninth last season in average rushing yards per game.
Deep Pass Plays. Another top priority of Schoen was to improve the team speed on the offensive side of the ball. In doing so--the team added receivers Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt and tight end Darren Waller--the hope is that the offense will be better able to stretch the field a bit more and come up with more deep pass plays.
Why is this such a big deal considering deep pass plays are riskier than their shorter counterpart, which happens to have a higher chance of being completed? The answer is yardage.
Last season the Giants finished 31st in intended air yards (3,327). They attempted passing plays on 47.7 percent of their offensive plays. With only 16 successful deep passing plays of 25+ yards (dead last in the league), that comes to a three percent success rate-- hardly enough to move the needle.
Granted, part of the problem was the offensive line's inconsistency. Giants quarterbacks were sacked 49 times, tied for fifth in the league with the Titans, so that problem also had to be addressed.
We'll find out if enough was done to make the Giants offense more explosive, but based on what some of the league's better offenses were able to do last year, being more explosive is a staple of success if a team aspires to reach the postseason.
Turnovers. If the Giants defense aspires to move into the premier stratosphere, it will have to do a far better job forcing turnovers, specifically interceptions. Last year, the Giants managed just six interceptions, with just one of those being made by a cornerback (Rodarius Williams).
That Daniel Jones and the offense were able to keep its turnovers down is a large reason why the Giants finished with a +3 turnover differential (11th in the league). That said, if the Giants want to make things easier on themselves moving forward, it will behoove them greatly if the defense came up with a few more turnovers to gift the offense with a shorter field.
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