Giants Open as Slight Underdogs vs. Jets
The New York Giants' four-game losing skid finally reached its end on Sunday thanks largely to a stellar defensive effort featuring six sacks against the Washington Commanders in a 14-7 nailbiter at MetLife Stadium.
Yet this key divisional victory that saw their defense force at least one turnover for the third straight week and the offense punch through the endzone twice for the first time in four games still hasn't inspired much confidence among the oddsmakers, who have the Giants opening as a 3-point underdog against their crosstown rival New York Jets.
The unfriendly lines have largely resulted from the ongoing injuries plaguing the Giants roster as they near the midway point of the 2023 season. Numerous members of the starting offensive line are still looming on the sidelines with various ailments, including left tackle Andrew Thomas (hamstring), center John Michael Schmitz (shoulder), and right tackle Evan Neal (ankle). However, the Giants hope to get back some of those guys for this weekend's matchup.
In addition, the availability of starting quarterback Daniel Jones remains up in the air after he missed his second game against Washington with a neck injury. That said, the franchise did many things well in defeating the Commanders.
For one, the offense found a way to get the ball moving with quarterback Tyrod Taylor despite playing behind a front line flanked by recent practice squad signings in both tackle spots. In their second game, led by the 35-year-old backup, the unit compiled 356 yards of total offense for their largest output since their Week 2 victory over Arizona (439) while averaging 5.5 yards per play.
On the other side of the field, Wink Martindale’s defense came flying from the opening whistle, making life hell for second-year quarterback Sam Howell. Sending the blitzes at the inexperienced arm and his lackluster offensive line, the Giants held Washington to an astonishing 1-15 on third-down conversion attempts. They also sacked Howell six times and forced an interception, rendering the Commanders' offense lifeless for nearly the entire contest.
Yet, as the focus turns towards their co-tenants at MetLife Stadium for what has become an intriguing matchup for more than bragging rights on Sunday, it’s hard not to recognize that a much different Jets team is coming to the party. Despite losing quarterback Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 to a torn Achilles and having a gauntlet of a schedule for the first six games, the glorified visitors are returning from their bye week fresh off a 20-14 upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles, sitting smack dab in a three-team fight for the AFC East at 3-3 overall.
Turning back to embattled gunslinger Zach Wilson to command the huddle in Rodgers’s absence, the Jets offense has competed with the NFL's premier teams behind their guy's improved play in that span. The 24-year-old has 110 completions for 1,097 yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions on the season but has cleaned up his historic turnover woes to post just one miscue in the last four weeks.
With the arsenal of weapons at his disposal, Wilson and the Jets offense are averaging 18.8 points per game and 4.9 yards per play, which is good for the 22nd-best pairing in the entire league. They sit towards the bottom in passing categories but have a few hands that can move the needle at a high rate, like Garrett Wilson, who leads the team with 32 receptions for 369 yards and two touchdowns.
On the ground, they have erupted behind the efforts of stud Breece Hall, who has lit up defenses to 426 yards (6.5 average) and two scores to put the franchise in 12th and 3rd place overall for rushing yards and average rush this season.
Speaking of defenses, the Jets boast one of the most active units that gets to the opposing quarterback and force turnovers at an alarming rate. Per ESPN Analytics, the Jeff Ulbrich-led group ranks 18th in pass rush win rate and 16th in run stop win rate, respectively. They also have three players—edge Bryce Huff, defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, and edge Jermaine Johnson—that stand among the top 20 at their positions in the above categories.
In their first six games, which featured two close contests with last year’s Super Bowl contenders, the Jets defense sits 13th and 24th in total points and yards allowed and has forced the second most turnovers in the NFL (13). Against the pass, their ball-hawk-filled secondary has limited teams to below 250 yards in all but one contest and kept the average throw under 5.7 yards per attempt. The ground game gives up a little ground to the enemy, but they excel at locking down near the goalline, succumbing to just two rushing touchdowns all year.
Above all, the most important factor of their defense is their hardiness in giving up any ground on 4th down and inside the redone. The Jets are ranked 15th-best in opposing 4th down conversion percentage and 4th in opposing red zone scoring percentage. However, they tend to be a little more loose on third down attempts, where they hold the 30th worst positioning in the league to offer teams a chance to make big plays on third-and-long scenarios.
It remains to be seen whether the Giants regain some of their vital pieces ahead of this matchup to reduce the opening margin. The only guarantee is that they will have to kick things up another notch on both sides of the ball if they want to come away with another progressive and, in some cases, upset victory.
The Jets are banged up in their own right along the starting offensive front, but have still managed to be respectable in protecting Wilson and opening up holes for the run game to flourish. Like Martindale, they’re likely to send the pressure at a Giants’ line that continues to be tested by the league's best pass rushers, which will demand a clean operation from whomever the starting quarterback is for Big Blue when the dust settles later in the week.
The only thing on the Giants' side right now is the history of the rare matchup. In 14 regular season meetings, the homebound Giants hold an 8-6 record against the Jets dating back to 1970. They have taken four of the last six battles, including one in overtime in November 2003 and their infamous 29-14 Christmas Eve win in 2011 that sparked a run to the Super Bowl 46 crown.
In 2019, the two sides met up with the Jets as the hosting franchise in their shared humble abode, and it was the green team that took him a 34-27 victory to close the gap on the all-time series.
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