Eye on the Opponent: Sam Howell Settling in for Commanders
The New York Giants will greet a new face in the opposing backfield as they face off with the Washington Commanders at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.
In an NFC East division that hasn’t seen as much quarterback turnover from its three other teams, the Commanders opened their 2023 season with their sixth different starting gunslinger in the past ten years. After trying to establish some long-term legitimacy with guys like Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, and Taylor Heinicke, second-year player Sam Howell is the latest candidate looking to establish himself as the main man for the future.
Howell, a 2022 fifth-round pick out of North Carolina, hails from a Tar Heels program that named him their starter before his freshmen season in 2019 and rode his wave under center to a 21-17 record before he declared for the NFL Draft in 2021. In 37 total starts, the 23-year-old tallied three consecutive 3,000+ yard campaigns with nearly 100 career touchdowns and a completion percentage of 63.8%.
In addition to his passing prowess, Howell commanded one of the most efficient offenses in the ACC in his three seasons. According to several polls, he managed to throw at least one touchdown per game, which led to the program ranking as high as fifth in the nation. By the time he graduated, he had over 10,200 yards to his resume, set numerous FBS and school records, and was named an All-ACC player twice.
Last fall, Howell remained a fixture on the Commanders sideline as he learned behind Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke for most of his rookie season. He finally earned the chance to play in Week 18 as the team’s postseason hopes were out of reach and led the team to a 26-6 upset of the Dallas Cowboys. In the win, he opened his NFL career with 11 completions for 169 yards and two total touchdowns to leave a good first impression on Ron Rivera and the coaching staff.
It was such a good impression that after Carson Wentz was released from the organization this past summer and Taylor Heinicke left as a free agent, Washington decided to move forward with Howell and see if he’s made for the professional level. The gamble has broken even so far, as the Commanders sit at 3-3 overall behind their quarterback’s 145 completions for 1,500 yards (7.0 average), nine touchdowns, and six interceptions and are right within the thick of the NFC Wild card race.
Howell currently stands ninth best in the league’s passing leaderboards, which is good for second best among the first and second-year players at his position. His efforts have the Commanders offense ranked 20th or better in nearly every major passing category, including 10th in first downs and attempts and 12th in passing touchdowns. He has some serviceable legs in him as well, holding 104 yards rushing and a score to sit second on the team’s rushing board.
While he’s been known to be a pretty clean pocket passer and game manager since his days at Chapel Hill, the part of Howell’s game that gets him in trouble against NFL competition is his tendency to hold onto the ball too long. The sophomore has benefited from a fairly stable offensive line that ranks 17th in pass block win rate and allows the quarterback an average of 2.92 seconds to throw on his 265 total dropbacks this season.
At the same time, Howell is granted the opportunity to keep his eyes downfield on his receivers' routes and find the best target to launch the pigskin at an average distance of 8.2 yards per throw. Yet, he becomes susceptible to second-guessing his reads as the game wears on and he faces a rotation of different defensive looks and pressures, leading to those pressures getting to him, blowing up the play, or forcing a scramble from the pocket or an ill-timed throw that could lead to a devastating turnover.
Per PFF, Howell has an incredible 2.8% turnover-worthy play rate and a big-time throw rate of 4.8%, with 11 passes in the past six weeks. On the other hand, he has faced 101 total pressures, resulting in 34 total sacks, a 33.7% pressure-to-sack percentage, and 16 scrambles. All this comes from his occasional indecisiveness in the pocket and a large reason for his six interceptions that are tied for second-most among starting quarterbacks in 2023.
These stats create a perfect opportunity for the Giants' defense to continue building upon their progress against the pass in Buffalo and pressure Howell into making a few critical errors that stifle the Washington offense. Big Blue ranks fourth in opposing passing attempts, 16th in yards, 14 in touchdowns, and 22nd in interceptions forced entering Week 7.
They’ve also gotten much better at shortening opposing drives, keeping teams out of the endzone, and have upped the opposing turnover rate to 23rd best with five total turnovers in the last two weeks. It could become another feast similar to the one Buffalo saw against Howell in Week 3 when they forced four interceptions from the budding gunslinger, especially considering the Giants' defense blitzes at some of the highest rates per game under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale.
It’s set up to be an important matchup for the Giants as they look to right the ship and salvage the rest of the season from being a complete disaster. With the way the offense has continued to struggle putting points on the board, they’ll need all the help they can get from their defense again, and this is how it’ll happen against a more average quarterback in Howell than the names they’ve visited in recent games and duels with the Washington Commanders.
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