Why Giants Will Beat Detroit, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

If you've been craving some true old-school style football, the Week 11 clash between the New York Giants and Detroit Lions should be just what the doctor ordered.

The Giants, 7-2 on the season, have been mostly getting it done via their ground game, reminiscent of the old Bill Parcells teams that used to ram the ball down their opponent's throats, daring them to stop them. They've also been getting it done with a bend-but-don't-break defense that has been consistently good in key situational stats such as the red zone and third down.

The Lions? Their record might not show it, but they've got themselves a pretty good offense that's ranked sixth overall (371.2 yards per game), tenth in rushing (129.8 yards per game), and eighth in passing (241.4 yards per game).

Detroit head coach (and former Giants tight end) Dan Campbell, whose tough, old-school, and gritty style from his playing days has seeped into every crevice of this Lions team, is going to have his guys ready to give the Giants all they can handle in what should be a classic all-out brawl. Who will be left standing when the smoke clears? Let's look at the possibilities.

Why the Giants Will Win

Much has been said about the Lions offense being something of a juggernaut, considering they average 24.3 points per game, the ninth-best mark in the league. But upon closer inspection, the dome-based Lions, who are 1-3 on the road, have averaged 15.2 points per game away from their home turf.

They'll face a Giants defense that has allowed 19.2 points per game to their opponents this season and who, in their last three wins (Ravens, Jaguars, and Texans), allowed 20 points or fewer.

Want more evidence that that suggests the Lions just aren't as efficient on the road as they've been at home? Quarterback Jared Goff has thrown two of his 15 touchdowns and four of his seven intereceptions this year on the road.

It also needs to be noted that the Giants' strengths are the Lions weaknesses, at least statistically. The Giants have the league's third-best rushing offense (164.8) going against the Lions and their 31st-ranked run defense (160.9 yards/game).

And if there was ever a week for the Giants to see if their passing game, which hasn't exactly been a juggernaut, can get going, this would probably be it, as the Lions pass defense is allowing 255.3 yards in the air, 27th in the league.

Why the Giants Will Lose

Despite any league rankings, sometimes, when a team gets hot in situational football, that can make what appears to be an easy opponent a lot harder.

That's the case with the Lions. In their last two games--both wins and one of those wins coming on the road--they've converted 50 percent of their third-down attempts and are five of eight in the red zone, two huge areas where they've improved on offense (two strengths, by the way, of the Giants' defense so far this season).

But the biggest concern that could sink the Giants' battleship is if this game turns into a scoring shootout. The passing game has been a problem all season long--quarterback Daniel Jones has only managed to throw for over 200 yards twice, in Week 5 versus the Packers (217 yards) and Week 7 versus the Jaguars (202) yards.

The Giants will likely continue riding Saquon Barkley's legs until someone figures out how to completely shut the running game down. If that someone is the Lions, it could make for a long day for the Giants defense.

Prediction

The Lions (3-6) might not have an as impressive record as the Giants (7-2), but don't let that fool you. Seven of their nine games have seen a difference of eight points or less.

As for the Giants, who no one is mistaking right now for a scoring machine, they have seen eight of their nine games decided by that same margin. That's probably among the many reasons why the Giants are favored in this game by a slim 1.5-point margin by the oddsmakers, who no doubt gave them the benefit due to the home-field advantage.

In the end, the Giants should be able to squeak out a win, but it's going to be interesting to see how much this week's game takes out of them when in four days, New York turns around and has to do it all again at Dallas in a key NFC East game on Thanksgiving.

Giants 24, Lions 20

Join the Giants Country Community

Sign up for our FREE digest newsletter
Follow and like us on Facebook
Submit your questions for our mailbag
Check out the new Giants Country YouTube Channel.
Listen and subscribe to the daily LockedOn Giants podcast.
Subscribe and like the LockedOn Giants YouTube Channel
Sign up for our FREE message board forums
Get your Giants tickets today from SI Tickets!

Add us as a preferred source on Google