Why Giants Will Beat Washington, Why They Won’t, and a Prediction

The New York Giants have a golden opportunity to start putting space between themselves and the rest of the NFC East if they can take care of business Sunday against the Washington Commanders in what should be a rain-soaked contest.

The Giants currently sit alone atop the NFC East. They’ve already defeated Dallas once this season, back in Week 1. By defeating Washington, New York will hold its spot atop the division standings regardless of what the Eagles, who face the Jaguars in London, do this weekend.

Moreover, a win over Washington will give the Giants a 2-0 record against division opponents, which is one tiebreaker if multiple teams end up with the same win-loss record at year’s end.

The good news for the Giants is they match up fairly well against the Commanders in just about every area of the game. It also doesn’t hurt that the Giants enter this game with better overall roster health. That said, there’s no such thing as a “gimme” game. So what will it take for Big Blue to pull off the win? And what must it avoid to keep its first loss against a division opponent from happening this season?

Let’s break it down.

Why the Giants Will Beat the Commanders

If there were ever a perfect setting for Giants quarterback Jameis Winston and the offense to explode for 300-plus yards and 30-plus points, this week would be it.

Washington’s defense has allowed 30.5 points per game, the third most in the league through four weeks. In fact, it has surrendered 30-plus points in its last three games.

The Giants offense finally cracked 30 points last week in a 36-24 win over Arizona (note: the last six points came on cornerback Deonte Banks’ interception). If they can keep stacking those performances, they’ll have a good chance to win every week.

Getting back to the Commanders’ defensive woes, after finishing ninth in total missed tackles last season with 155, Washington’s defense currently has the 13th most through four games (32).

Speaking of exploding, Washington has also struggled with that, thanks to breakdowns in its defensive secondary. The Commanders have allowed seven big-play pass completions of 20-plus yards, which ties them for ninth in the league. Four of those big-play passes have gone for 25-plus yards.

On the ground, things have been a little bit better. Washington has allowed nine plays of 10-plus yards. But again, if the Giants offense is ever going to blow things wide open (and they have the talent to do so), this would be a really good week for it to happen.

Washington’s red-zone defense has also struggled. The Commanders currently rank 30th in red-zone defense, with opponents converting at 80 percent. The Giants were better in the red zone last week and are tied for 18th overall, converting on 54.55 percent of their red-zone attempts. It goes without saying the Giants have to win in this part of the game, too.

Why the Giants Won’t Beat the Commanders

With the weather expected to be a mess, the Giants will likely try to grind things out behind their running game. But that unit, which has lacked explosive plays, would be squaring off against a Washington run defense currently ranked sixth in the league (93.5 yards per game).

It’s almost certain Washington will home in on stopping the run and force Winston to beat it with his arm.

If that’s its thinking, Washington is also likely hoping for the bad side of the Jameis Winston experience: the guy who makes high-risk throws and creates opportunities for the opposing defense.

Winston, to his credit, hasn’t put the ball in harm’s way much since taking over as the starting quarterback for the injured Jaxson Dart in Week 2. Per PFF, he has thrown only four turnover-worthy passes on 78 attempts, with two coming under pressure.

Also of note, Winston has been responsible for 25.9 percent of the pressures against him, fourth-highest among 30 qualifying quarterbacks who have faced pressure on at least 25 dropbacks.

If the Giants don’t keep Winston clean when he has to pass, things could get ugly quickly.

On the other side, with the anticipated return of Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Giants now have to account for another potential rushing threat who, in the two games he’s played this season, has averaged 7.3 yards per rushing attempt.

Don’t be surprised if the Giants assign a spy against Daniels to help keep him contained. If they can’t, it could be a long afternoon for Big Blue.

Prediction

Washington enters this week’s game as a 3.5-point favorite according to FanDuel, probably because the game is at home. It also doesn’t hurt that the Commanders are getting Daniels back, and the rain forecast could help Washington, given the strength of its run defense.

The Giants have momentum on their side, even though their last two wins have been close ones. Washington, meanwhile, is back from its London game. Still, it also has a lengthy injury list: receiver Stefon Diggs has already been ruled out, and receiver Terry McLaurin will be a game-time decision.

That said, it’s hard to shake the feeling that this game, which feels like one the Giants should win, will be another close affair with the Giants coming up short.

Washington 27, Giants 24

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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