Reviewing Trent Baalke's Past Draft History Ahead of Monumental Jaguars Draft
Trevor Lawrence will finally, officially become a Jacksonville Jaguar in less than one week.
1.01 is just about written in stone, but while finally hearing Lawrence’s name called on April 29th will be thrilling, there are still another nine picks for Jacksonville to make afterwards. And since it’ll be the first draft not headed by former general manager Dave Caldwell since 2012 -- plus the fact that no position group can’t be improved upon after a 1-15 season -- it’s difficult to project which draft prospects the Jaguars brass will be leaning towards outside of hints from press conferences.
Owner Shad Khan and head coach Urban Meyer will likely have the final word on personnel decisions over general manager Trent Baalke, but neither have experience in the draft. If Khan has made draft suggestions in the past, it hasn’t been made public, and as Meyer recently told local media, he isn’t used to not being able to go after every player he wants to add to his team like he was able to during college recruiting.
So, while it appears Baalke may have the third-most power in the building, he also has the most experience and he and his staff will undoubtedly be heavily leaned upon in Meyer’s first year in the NFL.
Here’s a look at what Baalke’s draft history looks like from his time as general manager of the San Francisco 49ers (2011-2016) and what that means for Jacksonville’s 2021 draft.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uwUoyYeswICknyYw2ddfFQLJld3OnIDw/view?usp=sharing
The largest initial takeaway from Baalke’s 61 draft selections as the Niners general manager was his penchant for defense. 31 picks played offense, 29 played defense and one played special teams, but four of Baalke’s six first round selections and seven of his 10 top-50 selections (of which the Jaguars have four in this draft) played defense.
Baalke specifically prioritized on the defense up front, as the three highest picks he held were all spent on the defensive line: Aldon Smith seventh overall in 2011; Arik Armstead 17th overall in 2015; and DeForest Buckner seventh overall in 2016.
Considering Meyer’s recent comments about the defensive line being the start of conversations about team talent and his suggestion that the organization isn’t done adding to that group, not to mention that defensive coordinator Joe Cullen spent nearly two decades as a defensive line position coach, it would not come at a surprise should the Jaguars spend one of its early selections on the defensive front.
Alabama defensive tackle Christian Barmore is the second-most mocked player to the Jaguars at 25th overall, and Iowa defensive tackle Daviyon Nixon is the fifth-most mocked player to Jacksonville in the second round according to Grinding the Mocks.
On the offensive side of the ball, Baalke typically waited for value for skill position players. He drafted one quarterback, one wide receiver, one tight end, two running backs and three offensive linemen in the first two days of the draft. In the fourth-through-seventh rounds, though, Baalke spent 14 of his 23 picks (61%) on skill position players, five of which were wide receivers. The Jaguars may end up drafting a lineman earlier and a receiver later than expected if Baalke’s past trends continue.
Baalke interestingly favored strong athletic testing much more in the first half of his time in San Francisco than the second. From 2011 to 2013, just two of 28 drafted prospects recorded an Athletic Testing Score (RAS) of 5.00 or worse, but then 11 of 33 selections recorded a poor RAS score from 2014 to 2016. Baalke also drafted 10 prospects with scores of 8.0-plus in 2011-2013 but just five from 2014-2016.
The 49ers definitely favored experienced prospects in the Baalke era- of all 61 draft picks, just 10 were 21 or younger.
In terms of actual accuracy, Baalke’s past draft classes have proved to be underwhelming for San Francisco. DeForest Buckner and Aldon Smith are his only two selections who have earned a first-team All-Pro selection, but they were also drafted top-10 overall. No draftee has earned multiple Pro Bowl honors.
Baalke’s draft classes added 597 Weighted Career Approximate Value for the Niners, according to Pro Football Reference... for comparison, Caldwell’s draft classes for the Jaguars (2013-2020, 65 players) added 702 AV.
Of the 61 players drafted during Baalke’s reign, just 17 (28%) have been a primary starter for multiple years in the league. 21 (34.4%) are still active in the league, including exactly half of those who were drafted in the first three rounds. The NFL Draft is essentially a crapshoot and very difficult, but hopefully Meyer’s influence will result in better outcomes in the future for the Jaguars.
Jacksonville’s 2021 draft class will obviously have major implications for the future of the organization. But beyond adding a shiny new franchise quarterback, the way that Baalke and co. set priorities and address depth at each position could unveil the blueprint for the future.
