4 Jaguars to Watch in Week 16 Vs. the Bears
Each week this season, I’ll be highlighting a few specific Jacksonville Jaguars players that I’ll be keeping my eye on based on how they’ve played so far and how I expect them to play in the future.
With the Jaguars (1-13) coming off a brutal loss to the Baltimore Ravens, there are several players worth tracking over the course of the week. Here is who I’ll be watching for in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears.
RB Dare Ogunbowale
Breakout running back James Robinson has had a tough past few days, as he suffered an ankle injury towards the end of Sunday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens before being snubbed from the Pro Bowl on Monday.
Robinson has been a true workhorse running back this year, as he ranked second in offensive snap rate (69.9%) and third in total touches (289) at the position. He will be rested today in practice but is expected to play on Sunday against the Chicago Bears.
Jacksonville’s backup running backs are likely to see more playing time next week even if Robinson does suit up, as he’s clearly shouldered a heavy workload and it makes sense to allow him to take some plays off given his new injury. Dare Ogunbowale and Devine Ozigbo will assume whatever backfield snaps are leftover. In Robinson’s absence last week, Ogunbowale out-snapped Ozigbo 14-3 and out-touched him 3-1.
Ozigbo will likely handle more early-down and short-yardage work while Ogunbowale should be expected to see more passing-situation opportunities. Considering that Jacksonville is 7.5-point underdogs to Chicago this week and easily pace the league in time of possession when trailing (per Football Outsiders), Ogunbowale should get the most snaps and touches when Robinson is off the field.
Ogunbowale has a career Pro Football Focus grade of 59.5 and just 53 career touches, as he’s mainly been a special teams player in his four years in the league out of Wisconsin. While the Jaguars clearly have the running back of its future in Robinson, it’s depth at the position is concerning, and both Ogunbowale and Ozigbo will have opportunities in the last two weeks of the season to prove their worth.
RT Jawaan Taylor
Jacksonville’s bookend tackles of Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor have officially disappointed for a second consecutive year together. Robinson has slightly improved as more time has passed since his 2018 ACL tear, but still leaves much to be desired and may soon have a new home as his contract with the Jaguars will expire following this season. Jawaan Taylor had moments of brilliance in an inconsistent 2019 rookie campaign but has had a rocky sophomore season, as he now leads all offensive linemen in pressures allowed.
That isn’t a great look in general, but especially this week, as Taylor and the Jaguars will be facing Khalil Mack and the Bears this week. Mack has lined up on the left side of the defensive line on 85.7% of his pass-rushing snaps this season (per PFF), meaning he will primarily be facing off against Taylor. The 2016 Defensive Player of the Year has been dominant this year after a relatively underwhelming 2019 season- Mack currently ranks first in PFF grade and sixth in pressures among all edge rushers.
Gardner Minshew was pressured on 45.7% of his dropbacks last week according to PFF -- the second-highest rate of his season- and while he found some success when he was able to get the ball off (7-of-10 passing for 73 yards and a touchdown), he also took five sacks. Minshew is likely in for another long day against Chicago’s strong front seven, especially Mack.
LB Joe-Hiles Garris
Outside of Myles Jack, there’s been flashes of potential but a lack of consistently strong play on the defensive side of the ball for the Jaguars this season. However, Joe Giles-Harris has been as reliable of a player as the team has had all season since his first game in week 12.
Giles-Harris had played just five career defensive snaps prior to that game but was thrust into action following an injury to the previous starter Kamalei Correa. In the past month, Giles-Harris has been more of a part-time player as he hasn’t played more than 70% of defensive snaps and has started two of four games in that span- but he has logged a PFF grade of 72.0 or better and ranked top-six in PFF grade among Jaguars defenders in each contest. Giles-Harris now leads the defense, and the team, in PFF grade as the sole player with a season grade higher than 80.0.
The second-year Duke product will need to have another strong performance this week against Chicago’s new play-action heavy offense. Like Giles-Harris, Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky has played well in the past month since he returned to the starting lineup in week 12. He ranks top-15 in completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating among 37 qualifying quarterbacks in that span, in large part due to success with play-action passes. Giles-Harris’ performance from his position at strongside linebacker against those play-action passes and Chicago’s offense as a whole will have a big impact on Sunday’s game.
CB Greg Mabin
Last week, Jacksonville played without cornerbacks C.J. Henderson (IR), D.J. Hayden (IR), Sidney Jones (Achilles injury), Luq Barcoo (healthy scratch), and Josiah Scott (zero snaps played). That left Tre Herndon, Chris Claybrooks, and Greg Mabin to take the field for the Jaguars.
Mabin drew his second start of the season for Jacksonville on Sunday and played 100% of snaps. He allowed just two completions on four targets in coverage, per PFF, but both catches were big plays- a 44-yard bomb to Marquise Brown and Dez Bryant’s first touchdown since 2017.
Mabin and the rest of Jacksonville’s secondary will have a tough test against former Jaguar Allen Robinson and a pair of young, underrated receivers in Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller. Robinson has turned into one of the league’s best receivers as he currently ranks top-10 in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and PFF receiving grade among wide receivers.
The Jaguars’ cornerbacks have been picked on all season long, as the team ranks 30th in PFF’s team coverage grade and 32nd in yards per attempt allowed- it will need a strong showing on Sunday unless it wants to get embarrassed by Trubisky, which at this point in this season would be unsurprising but humiliating nevertheless.
