4 Jaguars to Watch in Week 9 Vs. the Texans
Each week this season, I’ll be highlighting a few specific Jacksonville Jaguars players that I’ll be keeping my eye on based on how they’ve played so far and how I expect them to play in the future.
With the Jaguars (1-6) coming off its bye week following six straight losses, there are several players worth tracking over the course of the week. Here is who I’ll be watching for in Week 9 against the Houston Texans.
Jake Luton, QB
The Jaguars are moving onto its fifth starting quarterback since 2018 in sixth-round rookie Jake Luton. This will be the third year in a row and the seventh in the past decade in which Jacksonville has started multiple quarterbacks in a single season.
Sunday will be Luton’s first NFL action, as he has taken zero in-game snaps (including no preseason due to COVID-19) and has only gained experience via second- and third-string practice reps this year. Head coach Doug Marrone commented this week, “Jake’s done a nice job... I think Jake has a high ceiling.” Luton has drawn strong reviews from team brass since he was selected in April’s draft, but those are mostly just empty words at this point considering his lack of experience this far.
Luton threw for 2,714 yards and 28 touchdowns as a red-shirt senior at Oregon State, which was his sole collegiate season with double-digit games played. He has a middling matchup this week against the Houston Texans, which ranks 23rd in Football Outsiders’ passing defense DVOA.
Luton’s individual performance will certainly be one to keep an eye on, as his play will have a large impact on the final scoreboard, but the surrounding context will be as interesting. How much offensive coordinator Jay Gruden changes the offense following the team’s bye and a quarterback change will be a significant factor, and if the offensive scheme remains similar to what it was in Weeks 1-7, how Luton performs compared to Minshew in the same offensive environment will be a strong tell for both quarterbacks.
Considering that this is his first career start, it will be important not to judge Luton after a single performance, but it undoubtedly will be a look ahead to how the rest of Jacksonville’s season could conclude.
D.J. Chark, WR
D.J. Chark is one year removed from his sophomore breakout season in which he recorded 73 receptions and 1,008 receiving yards. This season, Chark has totaled just 26 catches and 291 yards in six games played thus far. After averaging 7.9 targets and 94.2 air yards per game in 2019, Chark is averaging 6.8 targets and 90.5 air yards in 2020 (per RotoWire). The opportunity is still there, but the production just isn’t.
Chark’s disappointing first half of the season can be attributed to a variety of factors, from health to quarterback play to deep receiving regression, but he must return to 2019 form if Jacksonville’s offense has any hope of winning its team some games- especially with a quarterback change from a 2019 sixth-rounder to a 2020 sixth-rounder.
Hopefully Chark will be back at full strength after a bye week to heal and rest, but he has a tough matchup against Houston’s Bradley Roby, whose 72.3 Pro Football Focus coverage grade ranks 24th among 126 qualifying cornerbacks this season. In their Week 5 matchup, Roby allowed just three receptions for 16 yards on four targets in shadow coverage against Chark. In the four other games that Roby has shadowed an opposing receiver this season, he has allowed an average of 4.0 catches for 47.3 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 5.3 targets per game.
This week should be a major indicator of what to reasonably expect from Chark for the remainder of the season based on his performance against Roby and chemistry with Luton.
Josh Allen, DE
Edge rusher Josh Allen, like Chark, needs to play like he did in 2019 if his side of the ball is going to make any improvements over the second half of the season. Last season, Allen ranked 11th among all defensive players in sacks (including first among rookies)- but just 77th in quarterback hurries, a sign of potential regression to his sack numbers.
Indeed, Allen’s sack totals have dropped from 11 in 2019 to two in 2020- but this year, he’s on the opposite side of regression, as he ranks 144th in sacks but 92nd in hurries among all defenders in 2020. According to Daniel Morse’s Expected Sacks metric, Allen has -1.6 sacks over expected this season (25th-lowest among all defenders) after totaling 2.5 sacks over expected last season (11th-highest).
In other words, in terms of sack totals as it relates to overall pass rushing performance, Allen overperformed as a rookie in 2019 but is underperforming as the team’s best defensive lineman in 2020. Like Chark, injuries have impacted Allen this year, as he’s been hampered by a knee injury that kept him out of Weeks 5 and 6. The losses of Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue are also likely factors, as Allen can no longer benefit from their “sack assists” and is now the primary focus of opposing offensive lines.
Allen didn’t play in Jacksonville’s Week 5 game against Houston but could find success this week. 68.7% of Allen’s pass rushing snaps have come from the left side of the line of scrimmage, meaning he’ll likely get more reps against Texans right tackle Tytus Howard (66.2 PFF pass-blocking grade) than left tackle Laremy Tunsil (league-best 92.6 PFF pass-blocking grade).
Houston ranks 18th in ESPN’s team pass block win rate metric but Deshaun Watson has taken the fourth-most sacks in the league due to his tendency to hold on to the ball for too long. Per PFF, Watson saw a decrease in average time in pocket (3.02 vs. 2.67) and rate of dropbacks under pressure (32.9% vs. 28.9%) when facing the Jaguars earlier this season as opposed to all other 2020 opponents- hopefully the presence of a healthy Allen will have an impact on Watson and the rest of Jacksonville’s remaining opposing quarterbacks this season.
C.J. Henderson, CB
Rookie cornerback C.J. Henderson had one of his worst statistical performances of his young career in Jacksonville’s last game against the Los Angeles Chargers. After seeing no more than five throws go his way in every game since Week 1, Henderson allowed nine targets in Week 7 for season-highs in receptions (6) and yards (71) allowed.
Defensive coordinator Todd Wash ran much more man coverage against the Chargers than he had earlier in the season. Wash designated Henderson to shadow coverage for the second time this season (the first being against Tennessee’s Corey Davis in Week 2). According to PFF, Henderson lined up across from Keenan Allen on 65.1% of routes; on those plays, Allen caught eight of 11 targets for 109 yards (regardless of which defender was covering Allen at the time of the pass).
The rookie was no match for Allen, who is one of the best route runners in the league, but Henderson has still had a solid rookie campaign. Whether Wash decides to continue deploying more man coverage than typical, and whether he continues to have Henderson shadow opposing receivers, will be something to watch in Week 9 and for the remainder of the season.
