Jaguars DVOA, EPA Update: Where Do Lawrence and the Team Rank After Week 5:
Each week throughout the rest of the 2022 season, we will keep a running track on how the Jacksonville Jaguars stack up in some of the most pivotal and stable advanced team metrics, along with how Trevor Lawrence ranks among all qualifying passers.
For reference on last week's numbers, here is where the Jaguars and Lawrence ranked after Week 4.
So, where do the Jaguars land after their embarrassing 13-6 loss to the Houston Texans at home? We break it down below.
Overall
In terms of overall ranking, the Jaguars are the No. 7 team in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. They were No. 4 last week.
In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. 15 offense (down from No. 12 last week), No. 7 defense (down from No. 6 last week) and the No. 17 special teams (down from No. 16 last week).
Offense
All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com
DVOA: No. 15
EPA/Play: No. 17
Success rate: No. 14
Dropback EPA: No. 10
Dropback success rate: No. 6
Rushing EPA: No. 25
Rushing success rate: No. 26
The Jaguars' offense took another step back in Week 5 after three good weeks to start the year, declining in each stat but dropback success rate and rushing EPA. The Jaguars are getting hurt by some critical turnovers -- such as Lawrence's red-zone interception to Derek Stingley -- and they aren't yet doing enough to overcome them. It hasn't been a bad offense, but it isn't one that has shown it can overcome its own mistakes, either.
“It’s frustrating, because like I said, you watch back on film, and you left quite a few yards out there," Jaguars guard Brandon Scherff said on Monday. "The Texans won in the end. It’s all about who has the most points at the end, and they did a heck of a job. It’s frustrating yes, but we can move on from this and grow and learn.”
Defense
All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com
DVOA: No. 7
EPA/Play: No. 5
Success rate: No. 3
Dropback EPA: No. 3
Dropback success rate: No. 4
Rushing EPA: No. 16
Rushing success rate: No. 8
As expected, the Jaguars still have one of the NFL's best defenses after Sunday's showing against the Texans. The Texans really only had two plays that made an impact on the game -- Dameon Pierce's 20-yard tackle-breaking run and Nico Collins' fourth-quarter grab against Tyson Campbell. Otherwise, the Jaguars held their own.
"I really would say that they’re a very good offensive line, but at the same time, we kind of beat ourselves in a way," DaVon Hamilton said on Monday. "It was really us, for sure, just not doing our job.”
Trevor Lawrence
DYAR: No. 10
DVOA: No. 12
QBR: No. 12
Effective yards: No. 10
Completion %: No. 22
TD%: No. 13
INT%: T-No. 13
Y/A: No. 23
AY/A: T-No. 16
NY/A: No. 11
ANY/A: No. 12
Sack%: T-No. 4
EPA/play: No. 15
CPOE: No. 23
Success rate: No. 7
A week with no touchdowns and two interceptions -- including a back-breaking one in the red-zone -- pushes Trevor Lawrence down for the second week in a row. He was a top-10 quarterback over the first three weeks, but the last two weeks have seen him struggle with accuracy and turnovers, leading to him falling to the middle of the pack.
“Each game is different. You go into games, and you anticipate and practice all week against a certain defense, certain coverages. You go against a Lovie Smith defense, you know you’re going to get Cover 2. It was quite frankly about 98% two-deep shell defense," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said on Monday. "We had the answers for it, but again, you’re talking about a young quarterback that just needs time. He needs reps, he needs to see more of it. He needs to understand that structures like that; their eyes are always going to be looking at the quarterback. They’re not going to take their eyes off the quarterback. As a coaching staff, where we can help him is to where he can manipulate the defense with his eyes a little bit more, and still be able to find some underneath throws.
"He did a great job of pushing it down the field a couple times, down the middle to Evan (Engram) and Dan Arnold on a deep-out type route. There are opportunities there, but we have to continue to show him. It’s like trying to get a young team to figure out how to win, same thing. We just have to keep showing him and talking to him and that falls more on us as a staff than it does on him.”
