How Jeff Hafley and Robert Saleh Hires Affect Rest of Coaching Market

And then there were six. The Ravens, Steelers, Bills, Cardinals, Browns and Raiders are the remaining teams without a head coach after the Dolphins hired Jeff Hafley on Monday afternoon and the Titans hired Robert Saleh late Monday night.

Matt Nagy allowed his contract to lapse in Kansas City, giving himself a crack at a head coaching job and, perhaps, a new narrative that doesn’t tie him directly to Patrick Mahomes. Eric Bieniemy will return in his place, to be the offensive coordinator where he held that title from 2018 to ’22. We’ll see how Nagy factors into the offensive coordinator conversation ahead. If you think it’s impossible that Nagy would land in Tennessee as a coordinator, I would remind you of the Broncos’ search in 2019, when the two finalists for the job were Vic Fangio and Mike Munchak, and John Elway hired both of them.

Before we get into predicting the jobs ahead, let’s reset the market and go over our top remaining candidates:

Jesse Minter, defensive coordinator, Los Angeles Chargers
Vance Joseph, defensive coordinator, Denver Broncos
Brian Flores, defensive coordinator, Minnesota Vikings
Grant Udinski, offensive coordinator, Jacksonville Jaguars
Davis Webb, passing-game coordinator, Denver Broncos
Nate Scheelhaase, passing-game coordinator, Los Angeles Rams
Mike LaFleur, offensive coordinator, Los Angeles Rams
Chris Shula, defensive coordinator Los Angeles Rams
Brian Daboll, former head coach, New York Giants
Jim Schwartz, defensive coordinator, Cleveland Browns
Klint Kubiak, offensive coordinator, Seattle Seahawks
Mike McDaniel, former head coach, Miami Dolphins
Kliff Kingsbury, former offensive coordinator, Washington Commanders
Ejiro Evero, defensive coordinator, Carolina Panthers

My best guess is that the remaining six openings will come from a this list of 14 names. And before we get into predictions, here are a few notes about where the market stands right now:

• I think it’s safe to assume that many of these jobs could hinge on the stacked assistant pool touted by the Rams, Seahawks and Broncos, whose teams are all still alive in the playoffs. Joseph, Kubiak, Scheelhaase, Webb, LaFleur and Shula are in position to have second interviews but must wait until Jan. 26. One industry source noted that teams are going to be willing to display more patience this year, given the shallow nature of the candidate pool and the fact that, as is often the case with great teams, many of them have coaches who are still working.

• Mike McDaniel and the Lions were not a fit, and the Lions ended up going with former Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing as their OC. Still, McDaniel’s slate of options are robust, with every offensive coordinator-needy team expressing interest. The Buccaneers would seem to be the primary team to watch. Tampa Bay boasts a winnable division, a solid quarterback and a deep well of playmaking talent for McDaniel—as well as a stylistic counterpart in head coach Todd Bowles.

• If McDaniel isn’t going to Tennessee with Saleh, that could leave Nagy, as I mentioned before, and another possible option: former Bills OC Joe Brady. Brady is interviewing for head coaching jobs—he is in Arizona on Tuesday and has a second callback with Baltimore—but would also be perfect with the developing Cam Ward. I’ve heard a lot of Titans fans clamoring for Klay Kubiak, the brother of Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint. But it’s important to keep in mind that Klay is already an offensive coordinator and, thus, is blockable by Kyle Shanahan. Daboll, Kingsbury and Arthur Smith are other possibilities in Tennessee.

• Smith is a strong candidate for the Chargers’ offensive coordinator job. I saw an interesting stat the other day that if you calibrated points scored with dollars spent on offense, Smith’s unit with the Steelers would be third behind New England and Seattle. He’s the only play-caller in history to have seven consecutive seasons of a running back with more than 1,000 scrimmage yards—and only two of those were Derrick Henry. The others? Kenneth Gainwell, Jaylen Warren, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson. He’s been maximizing the talent pool and plays a brand of football Jim Harbaugh can appreciate.

• Do not rule out the exploration of a head coaching trade for Buffalo. I think this is something being bandied about in league circles—though to be clear, I am not reporting it as an inevitability or even a possibility. It would be immensely complicated and cost a talent-deprived Bills team more draft capital. In my mind, the three best play-calling, offensive-minded head coaches who would be attainable via trade (meaning, there’s no way in hell the 49ers would trade Kyle Shanahan or the Rams would trade Sean McVay): the Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell, Panthers’ Dave Canales and Colts’ Shane Steichen.

And, again, we’re just playing on this playground, but how interesting would it be if you’re the Vikings and you simply promote Brian Flores to head coach and reap the draft capital from an O’Connell trade?

• How about that staff being put together by Kevin Stefanski in Atlanta? With the addition of Bill Callahan, Stefanski made the cleanest early sweep of the top-tier assistant market. It’s a great first crack at the management role for former Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, now the team’s president of football.

Now, onto our best pencil guesses now that the dust has settled:

Pittsburgh Steelers

Top candidates: Chris Shula, defensive coordinator, Los Angeles Rams; Brian Flores, defensive coordinator, Minnesota Vikings; Nate Scheelhaase, passing-game coordinator, Los Angeles Rams

The Steelers are not one of the most attractive jobs from a roster standpoint but are competitive from a prestige standpoint. I would imagine that, even as Weaver comes in for a second interview on Friday, this job will come down to how Pittsburgh measures its respect for Flores against the plans laid out from a pair of Rams coaches with high upside.

Cleveland Browns

Top candidates: Grant Udinski, offensive coordinator, Jacksonville Jaguars; Nate Scheelhaase, passing-game coordinator, Los Angeles Rams; Jim Schwartz, defensive coordinator, Cleveland Browns

Cleveland’s search is going to come down to two very bright offensive minds in Udinski and Scheelhaase, or the team’s desire to keep Schwartz in place. I would guess Udinski has the pole position but that is merely a guess on my part. There are still a few innings left to play here.

Arizona Cardinals

Top candidates: Vance Joseph, defensive coordinator, Denver Broncos; Mike LaFleur, offensive coordinator, Los Angeles Rams

I think we’ll learn a lot about this job later this week. Still, I feel Joseph’s position here is a strong one given his relationship to ownership and his role, which included head coaching responsibilities, when Joseph was with the Cardinals previously.

Las Vegas Raiders

Top candidates: Jesse Minter, defensive coordinator, Los Angeles Chargers; Davis Webb, passing-game coordinator, Denver Broncos

As we’ve mentioned previously, Minter has Michigan ties with both Brady and general manager John Spytek. If he slips through the cracks in Baltimore, we could see Minter find a landing spot within the division, should he desire to take that job. Webb would give the Raiders another in-division rival who is fiery and has QB bona fides with a No. 1 pick possibly coming at that position.

Buffalo Bills

Top candidates: Brian Daboll, former head coach, New York Giants; Davis Webb, passing-game coordinator, Denver Broncos

But really it’s anyone’s guess. With Sean McDermott’s firing coming after the divisional round, this one is way too early to call.

I would imagine the Bills don’t necessarily even have a firm direction at this point. But they’ll be able to dictate the market so long as an incoming coach has no problem working with general manager Brandon Beane. Webb and Daboll have deep Buffalo ties and connections to Josh Allen, which is where any list is going to start.

Baltimore Ravens

Top candidates: Jesse Minter, defensive coordinator, Los Angeles Chargers; Klint Kubiak, offensive coordinator, Seattle Seahawks; Nate Scheelhaase, passing-game coordinator, Los Angeles Rams

Kubiak and Minter have been my final two for this job since the beginning, and I’ve flip-flopped in various prediction pieces over the past few weeks. Both of these just make sense and as we’ve seen with the Dolphins’ hiring of Hafley, there is value in landing the ball in the middle of the fairway. Still, the idea that the Ravens will take a major QB-centric swing exists.