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New York Jets Offense's 2023 'Projected Win Share' Higher than Miami and New England
The No. 10 spot would represent a massive improvement for an offense that ranked amongst the bottom third in the National Football League last season.
Cynthia Frelund attempted to predict the League's top-10 offenses for the 2023 season based upon projected win share and the New York Jets wound up at 10th overall.
Reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City came out of the calculations atop the NFL with an 8.7 projected win share from its offense. Earning an 8.5 win share score, the Super Bowl runner-up Philadelphia Eagles checked in at No. 2 overall.
The defending three-time AFC East champion Buffalo Bills (8.2) ranked third followed by the Cincinnati Bengals (8.0) in fourth.
Frelund, the NFL Network analytics expert, unveiled the factors used in calculating win share.
"Win share measures the ability of each player, position group and side of the ball to earn or prevent first downs, points and touchdowns. ... Another important preamble note: The rankings are compiled via average results. Some offenses have great upside, but their projections are extremely volatile due to outsized personnel questions (SEE: the uncertainty around quarterback health in San Francisco and Arizona)," wrote Frelund.
The Jets, who registered a 7.1 projected win share, and the Bills were the lone two AFC East teams to land in the Top 10.
From "NFL's top 10 offenses in 2023? Bills, Chiefs, Eagles produce highest win-share projections":
10. New York Jets
Projected Win Share: 7.1
"The Jets, Dolphins and Vikings are all extremely close in slots 10 through 12 here, with small differences separating them. Aaron Rodgers' ability to increase the effectiveness of his O-line pushes the Jets slightly ahead and into the 10th spot. Over the past five seasons, no QB has helped his O-line more than Rodgers, per computer vision. I was a bit shocked that the Jets ended up in the top 10 because their defense is also ranked in my top 10, whereas the Vikings' defense is not, meaning their offense should pick up a bigger win share. ...."
- Cynthia Frelund
In 2022, the Gang Green offense ranked 25th our of 32 teams in yards per game (318.2). Meanwhile, only three teams -- Colts, Texans, Broncos -- averaged fewer points per game than the Jets (17.4) last season.
READ Exploring Aaron Rodgers' 2023 Fantasy Value and Projected Season Totals
The Green & White's 6.45 yards per pass average was No. 27 overall on the NFL leaderboard. In Green Bay, Rodgers accounted for 6.8 yards per attempt last year and that number was the second lowest of his career.
In addition to a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, the Jets' attack will benefit greatly from a healthy Breece Hall. The explosive running back gained 681 yards from scrimmage in 6.5 games as a rookie. Frelund lists Hall as RB7 for fantasy football PPR formats.
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