Jets Will Show Growth in 2022, But it Won’t Correlate to Win-Loss Column
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In just a matter of days the very much new and improved New York Jets football team will grace a field for their first meaningful game of the 2022 NFL season.
Despite the team beginning its campaign with its 37-year-old backup quarterback under center and a rookie at right tackle (filling in for an injured August free agent signing), the expectations for the Jets are to not only be a much-improved team but one that finds itself closer to the postseason than the No. 1 pick by the end of December. On paper the Jets made upgrades to more than half of their 22 starters, by way of a slew of free agent signings and draft selections, but is it enough to impact in the win column?
The start of this Jets season is a doozy: four straight games against one of the toughest and most consistent divisions of the last decade in the AFC North. The Browns will be without star quarterback Deshaun Watson in Week 2, but all three remaining have some of the more complete rosters in football that either hold a top-10 offense or top-10 defense. While some believe the Bengals may regress back to the mean this season, the Steelers and Ravens have been a model of consistency and are two of the best-run organizations this century.
What makes this opening month most concerning is the lack of meaningful reps this improved Jets roster has under its belt. The offensive line — with four of its members either playing a new position or being new to the team — has 21 reps of preseason action together. The staff’s decision to rest a lot of their key players for the preseason was smart as it pertains to staying healthy, but also puts them behind the eight ball in terms of all their new pieces, including 12 new starters, to gel together on the fly. It’d be one thing to get those reps against lesser opponents later in the schedule like the Lions, Bears or Jaguars, but trying to adjust to all these new pieces on the go against consistent and tough franchises is less than ideal.
Should Zach Wilson make his return by Week 4, he’ll see four top-10 secondaries — Miami, Green Bay, Denver and Buffalo — and three top-10 front sevens — Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Buffalo — in his first six games back. Not only will that be a tall task for the wobbled franchise quarterback, but he’ll also be reintegrating into an offense that will have spent its first three weeks in a less aggressive, more conservative passing offense with plenty of checkdowns. Plenty of those teams also hold high-scoring offenses, making it likely the Jets will need to air it out and play downfield football to keep pace.
Speaking of Miami and Buffalo, let’s talk realistic expectations for the AFC East. The Bills are title favorites with one of the most complete rosters in football, the Dolphins have one of the most improved offenses in football thanks to the additions of head coach Mike McDaniel, left tackle Terron Armstead and wideout Tyreek Hill and the Patriots, while on the downswing, have yet to show signs of being a below average team thanks to its coaching prowess and defensive ability. This Jets team should be capable of splitting the series against both the Dolphins and Patriots, but I’d find a 1-5 record in the division far more likely than 3-3.
As this Jets team figures itself out, specifically on offense, the results will play nicely to cap off the season. Five of their final seven opponents hold bottom-10 secondaries and four of them equipped with bottom-10 front sevens. As the offensive line continues to develop synchronicity and their first- and second-year players continue to develop, the final portion of this schedule will feel much like the 2021 campaign and offer hope for the future heading into the offseason.
While the win-loss column may not look too different than years prior come January, this team will be far more competitive on a game-to-game basis and one with its sights set on continued ascension and a playoff berth in 2023. The defense should be trusted to keep middling to above average offenses at bay, and its defensive line could look like one of the best in league when it’s all said and done. Its offensive personnel is too much of a question mark to hold that same level of confidence, and I see that being the side of the football that keeps this team from overcoming its superior foes. All of this could change with a massive second-year leap from Wilson in Weeks 4 and beyond, but he has yet to show consistent play on the easy parts of the job. His ceiling is still just as high as it was coming out of BYU, but it’s his floor that needs to be elevated in year two.
It’s hard to say “don’t be mad” if the Jets barely elevate their win total from 2021, but how this team competes and develops its young nucleus is far more important than sneaking into the wild card round. As long as things don’t bottom out entirely this season, this is a young and exciting roster with a beloved coaching staff and strong front office that is primed to find its identity in 2022 and unleash it in 2023.
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