What will Sam Darnold's touchdown number be in 2020?
Sam Darnold took a step forward in his development in 2019, the New York Jets franchise quarterback putting together the pieces as the season wore on. Now heading into his third season in the NFL, Darnold will be expected to take a leap forward in his maturation.
And even as the Jets are rebuilding, continued growth by Darnold will be expected in not just wins/losses but also in his ability to move the ball down the field. In particular, getting his team into the end zone more regularly.
According to DraftKings, the line is set at 22.5 passing touchdowns for Darnold this upcoming season. Of course, this all works under the assumption that there is a full season and a full-16 game schedule at that due to the fallout from the global COVID-19 pandemic.
At the end of the day, Darnold hitting that touchdown number would should moderate progress.
In his first two years in the NFL, Darnold in 13 games each season. As a rookie he threw for 17 touchdowns (against 15 interceptions). He showed an uptick last year with 19 touchdowns (against 13 interceptions). His touchdown percentage on passes thrown improved (from 4.1% as a rookie to 4.3% last year) and his interception percentage dropped.
All good signs heading into 2020.
And should Darnold play a full slate of games in the upcoming season, he could well bypass that 22.5 line set by DraftKings. It won’t be easy, however.
The Jets have a far tougher schedule in 2020 than last year and Darnold is without Robby Anderson, his second-leading receiver and biggest playmaker who left in free agency. Now if the Jets draft a wide receiver on Day 2 to replace Anderson’s production (such as Penn State’s K.J. Hamler or Notre Dame’s Chase Claypool) then the Jets could well have an effective offense.
Another positive for the Jets in 2020 is a revamped offensive line, which should provide a more balanced offense. There is also Darnold’s growth over the second half of the season, a trajectory that points towards an improving player.
In the season’s final eight games, when the Jets went 6-2, Darnold had 13 touchdowns with four interceptions. Numbers that, if projected over the course of a full season, would see him exceed the over/under line from DraftKings.
In addition, going back to his rookie season of 2018, Darnold had five touchdowns and no interceptions over the last three games of the season. When combined with his numbers from 13 games played in 2020, giving him a full season’s worth of games, Darnold has 24 interceptions and 13 interceptions in his last 16 games played.
