David Montgomery 2023 Best Bets Breakdown
The Detroit Lions are hoping David Montgomery can carry their rushing attack in 2023.
Brought in through free agency, he's one of two new pieces in the backfield. After Jamaal Williams' 1,000-plus yard performance last season, expectations are high for Montgomery.
Working behind the Lions' vaunted offensive line, he could be in store for a career year. Here are predictions for futures bets involving Montgomery ahead of the 2023 season:
Rushing yards
Best bet: Over 700.5 (-112)
Montgomery hasn't had a season below 800 rushing yards yet in his career. At just 26 years old, he likely still has plenty of good football ahead of him.
Last year, he rushed for 801 yards for an offense that finished 23rd in scoring and 28th in total offense.
He also has run behind offensive lines well below the magnitude of Detroit's when its fully healthy. Assuming the pieces stay together up front, there will be wide run lanes and green grass ahead of the fifth-year back.
Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs will get plenty of carries, but his impact will extend beyond the run game. As a result, the former Bear will get the heavy share of opportunities to tote the rock.
He's also shown the durability to get through an entire NFL season. The Iowa State product has never played less than 13 games in a campaign, with two 16-game seasons.
As a result, he should clear this total with relative ease in 2023.
Rushing touchdowns
Best bet: Over 5.5 (-150)
The Lions love their goal line run packages. Much like Williams was the sole red zone option last year, Montgomery will be the guy inside the 10-yard line.
His physical running style lends itself strongly to red zone situations. Additionally, he has breakaway speed that helps him finish off long runs.
Behind the likes of Penei Sewell, Frank Ragnow and Taylor Decker, the Lions run game should be plenty successful.
While he may not surpass the record-setting total posted last year, the Lions' scheme and his short-yardage prowess gives him every chance to top his current over/under.
Specials
Best bet: 10+ rushing touchdowns in the regular season (+430)
There's good value in this bet for all the reasons mentioned previously.
Last season, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was left unsatisfied by the Lions' lack of long runs. Montgomery's speed and agility should create more of those in 2023.
With his ability to finish runs, he should be crossing the goal line at a strong clip.
