Odds Lions Defeat the Atlanta Falcons

The Detroit Lions are coming off their most complete performance of the 2021 season, a 30-12 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15.

Now, they will look to make it two wins in a row when they face off with the Atlanta Falcons Sunday.

Atlanta, which stands at 6-8 and in third place in the NFC South, has lost four of its last six games, including in Week 15 to the San Francisco 49ers (31-13).

Additionally, Matt Ryan and the Falcons haven't generated more than 17 points in any of the last four games they've lost. They've also allowed at least 25 points in each of those four games.

For the season (as a whole), Atlanta has allowed 27.4 points per game (second most in the NFL). Meanwhile, Ryan & Co. have produced just 18.4 points a game, which ranks 26th in the league.

What these above stats tell me is that the Falcons are not a very good team and have overachieved thus far in 2021.

In fact, according to the "Expected W-L" stat on Pro-Football-Reference.com, they should be about a 4-10 team. This is also true with the Lions, based on the amount of points they've scored (17.4/game) and have allowed (26.1/g) through 14 games.

So, yes, Dan Campbell's squad has a solid opportunity to pull off the win in this Week 16 road contest.

The biggest road block is the health of starting signal-caller Jared Goff, who was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Monday. He's reported mild symptoms since, but there's still no guarantee he's activated off the list in time for Sunday's game.

Goff is coming off a near perfect performance against the Cardinals, in which he completed 21-of-26 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns.

If he can't go this week, Detroit will either turn to Tim Boyle or David Blough under center, which diminishes the odds of the Lions defeating the Falcons.

Boyle, who got the start for Detroit in Week 11 against the Cleveland Browns, finished 15-of-23 for 77 yards and two interceptions in what was his first career NFL start.

The second-most concerning thing to me is the Lions' injury report from Wednesday. Most notably, it featured cornerback Amani Oruwariye, who was held out of practice with a thumb injury.

This comes after he didn't miss a snap against Arizona and logged his sixth interception of the season.

The third-year pro is in the midst of a career season, and losing him would be a significant blow to Detroit's chances of winning in Atlanta this Sunday.

Taking all the aforementioned factors into account, I'll give the Lions a 40 percent chance of pulling out the Week 16 win.