NFL Standings, Playoff Picture and Postseason Probability

Here's where we stand with four weeks left in the regular season.
C.J. Stroud and the Texans took a huge step toward making the playoffs by beating the Kansas City Chiefs.
C.J. Stroud and the Texans took a huge step toward making the playoffs by beating the Kansas City Chiefs. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images
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With all those pesky bye weeks out of the way, the NFL will have full 16-game buffets over the final four weeks of the regular season. As the playoff picture becomes more clear so does the fact that the AFC and NFC brackets are likely to look much different than expected as some preseason favorites have suffered rough seasons. As it stands the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions would all be watching from home if the playoffs began today.

But they don't. There is so much to be decided and so many surprises to come.

Here's a look at the state of play headed into Week 15 with each team's chance to make the playoffs.

NFC East standings

Despite dropping an overtime battle against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night, the Eagles still have the inside track to hang on to win the division.

Team

Record

Eagles

8-5

Cowboys

6-6-1

Commanders

3-10

Giants

2-11

NFC North standings

The Green Bay Packers took control of this division with an enormous win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday. But this one is technically still open for all three teams at the top, including the Lions.

Team

Record

Packers

9-3-1

Bears

9-4

Lions

8-5

Vikings

5-8

NFC South standings

This one couldn't be closer as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers are locked up at the top. They still have two head-to-head matchups remaining that will decide who walks away with the crown.

Team

Record

Buccaneers

7-6

Panthers

7-6

Falcons

4-9

Saints

3-10

NFC West standings

Another three-team battle with Matthew Stafford's side in pole position.

Team

Record

Rams

10-3

Seahawks

10-3

49ers

9-4

Cardinals

3-10

AFC East standings

Any hope the Buffalo Bills have must include beating the New England Patriots in a head-to-head battle this Sunday. But the surprising Drake Maye-led side are currently sitting on a two-game lead.

Team

Record

Patriots

11-2

Bills

9-4

Dolphins

6-7

Jets

3-10

AFC North standings

Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers took the lead of this meddling division with a huge victory over the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday. This one will likely go down to the wire and 9-8 may be enough to do it.

Team

Record

Steelers

7-6

Ravens

6-7

Bengals

4-9

Browns

3-10

AFC South standings

Jacksonville is surprisingly atop this one as the Colts fade but don't sleep on the hard-charging Texans.

Team

Record

Jaguars

9-4

Texans

8-5

Colts

8-5

Titans

2-11

AFC West standings

Sean Payton's Denver Broncos need to take care of business and close out the Los Angeles Chargers before their Week 18 matchup or face a winner-take-all proposition.

Team

Record

Broncos

11-2

Chargers

9-4

Chiefs

6-7

Raiders

2-11

NFC Playoff Picture

Team

Record

Playoff %

1. Rams

10-3

98

2. Packers

9-3-1

94

3. Eagles

8-5

93

4. Buccaneers

7-6

70

5. Seahawks

10-3

98

6. 49ers

9-4

90

7. Bears

9-4

65

8. Lions

8-5

51

9. Panthers

7-6

30

10. Cowboys

6-6-1

10

AFC Playoff Picture

Team

Record

Playoff %

1. Broncos

11-2

99

2. Patriots

11-2

99

3. Jaguars

9-4

97

4. Steelers

7-6

66

5. Chargers

9-4

76

6. Bills

9-4

96

7. Texans

8-5

88

8. Colts

8-5

32

9. Ravens

6-7

33

10. Chiefs

6-7

11


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Kyle Koster
KYLE KOSTER

Kyle Koster is an assistant managing editor at Sports Illustrated covering the intersection of sports and media. He was formerly the editor in chief of The Big Lead, where he worked from 2011 to '24. Koster also did turns at the Chicago Sun-Times, where he created the Sports Pros(e) blog, and at Woven Digital.