These Safeties Might Not Be on Packers’ Draft Board

The Green Bay Packers will be looking to improve their depth chart at safety in the 2024 NFL Draft. What does their history tell you about this year’s prospects?

Author:
Bill Huber
Apr 18, 2024

In this story:

NFL Draft

Green Bay Packers

Brian Gutekunst

Kamren Kinchens

Tyler Nubin

green bay packers draft

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have a profound need at safety entering the 2024 NFL Draft. They might need a starter to line up with Xavier McKinney. And they certainly need depth after not re-signing Darnell Savage, Jonathan Owens and Rudy Ford in free agency.

Ted Thompson (2005 through 2017) and Brian Gutekunst (2018 through present) have selected 12 safeties during their 19 drafts. While they are different men with different eyes for talent, the size-speed requirements have remained consistent.

Based on that history, which safety prospects might fit better than others? Let’s dive into the history.

Height

In his first draft, Thompson used a fourth-round pick on Marviel Underwood, who measured 5-foot-10 1/4. He is the outlier. Only 2018 first-round pick Darnell Savage, who measured 5-foot-10 3/4, has been shorter than 5-foot-11.

Using 5-foot-10 1/2 as a hypothetical cut-off would exclude the Georgia tandem of Javon Bullard (5-10 1/2) and Tykee Smith (5-10), Wake Forest’s Malik Mustapha (5-10 1/8) and Texas Tech’s Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (5-10 3/8).

Weight

Underwood and Savage are the only players at less than 200 pounds – and barely so at 197 and 198 respectively. While players always slim down to run a faster 40, it’s noteworthy that USC’s Calen Bullock (188) and Auburn’s Jaylin Simpson (179) were well under 200. Simple physics dictates that, all things being relatively equal, a 200-pound safety will have more success tackling a 210-pound running back than a 185-pounder.

Hands and Arms

Hand size hasn’t mattered but arm length seems to be a big deal. In 2012, the Packers used a fourth-round pick on Jerron McMillian, who had 30 5/8-inch arms. He’s the only safety with arms shorter than 31 inches.

Utah’s Cole Bishop is one of the bigger safeties in the class and is in the running to be the first off the board. From a size-speed-skill-set perspective, he would seem to be a strong counterpart to McKinney. However, his 29 3/4-inch arms are among the shortest in the class. Wake Forest’s Mustapha (30 1/8), Oregon’s Evan Williams (30 1/8) and Utah’s Sione Vaki (29 1/8) could miss the cut, as well.

40 And Other Testing

Tyrone Culver, a sixth-round pick in 2006, ran his 40 in 4.62 seconds. He’s the only safety who failed to at least hit 4.60 on the stopwatch. The next-slowest was former first-round pick HaHa Clinton-Dix. His 4.58 made him the only other Packers safety slower than the Combine average of 4.564.

One of the top ballhawks in the entire draft is Miami’s Kamren Kinchens. With 11 interceptions the last two years, he’s got first-round production. But he ran his 40 at the Combine in 4.65 seconds and only improved to 4.60 at pro day. Maryland’s Beau Brade (4.65) and Oregon’s Williams (4.60) also were slow. Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin (4.59) barely inched under the bar.

How about vertical jump? Clinton-Dix’s 33 inches was the lowest of the group. Only Nubin (31), Brade (32.5) and Ohio State’s Josh Proctor (32.5) did worse among the first four or five rounds of safeties. Oregon’s Williams was one of the best at 40.5.

Relative Athletic Score

It’s a rather bizarre circumstance that the best two safeties by production – Minnesota’s Nubin and Miami’s Kinchens – are two of the worst testers in the draft class.

Relative Athletic Score puts all the measurables on a 0 to 10 scale to allow for easy positional comparisons. Nubin scored a 3.72 and Kinchens posted a 2.43. Of the top 20-or-so safeties, they were the only two under 5.00 – which is an average score overall (but not average for an NFL player). Maryland’s Brade (5.38) was the only one even in the vicinity.

It’s perhaps worth noting that Thompson used his 2014 first-round pick on Clinton-Dix, who scored a 4.87. Of Gutekunst’s four safety picks, three were over 8.00: Savage, 8.37; Tariq Carpenter, 9.05; Anthony Johnson, 8.12. The other, Vernon Scott, didn’t have full numbers because of COVID but he had excellent size and the Packers timed him in the 4.4s, so he would have had a high RAS.