After Two Big Free-Agent Paydays, Packers Have Chance to Hit Jackpot

INDIANAPOLIS – A good general manager tries to build a winning team for the upcoming season. By that logic, Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst should do everything possible to build a Super Bowl-caliber team this offseason.

At the same time, a good general manager takes a longer-team view of the team.

Those two disparate realities will cross Gutekunst’s mind when free agency opens for business in less than two weeks.

The Packers, coming off a third consecutive season of being a seventh seed in the playoffs, have work to do to become a legitimate championship contender. A conservative approach might be the right approach, though, and not just because of the team’s salary-cap limitations.

The most likely scenario on Day 1 of NFL free agency on March 9 is that quarterback Malik Willis and left tackle Rasheed Walker will agree to huge contracts. It is a “foregone conclusion,” according to NFL insider Jordan Schultz, that Willis will receive a contract worth “at least” $30 million per season. Walker might get a contract worth $25 million per season.

#Packers free agent QB Malik Willis is in demand, as expected, and interested teams I’ve spoken to at the Combine in Indianapolis believe him getting at least $30M per year is a foregone conclusion. pic.twitter.com/FzB8GaaNPw
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) February 25, 2026

If those contracts become reality, it will be slam-dunk certainties that the Packers will be awarded a pair of third-round compensatory draft picks for 2027.

The Give-And-Take of Comp Picks

Those aren’t locked into place, though.

Compensatory picks are awarded to teams who lose more and better free agents than they sign. To simplify, if the Packers lose only Willis and Walker, and the contracts they sign are valued as third-round compensatory free agents, and the Packers sign free agents valued as fifth- and seventh-round compensatory free agents, the Packers would lose the third-rounders.

It won’t be that simple, though, because the Packers probably will lose more than Willis and Walker. Receiver Romeo Doubs, linebacker Quay Walker, defensive end Kingsley Enagbare and offensive lineman Sean Rhyan also will be unrestricted free agents.

For the sake of example and using hypothetical contracts to determine hypothetical compensation, let’s say the Packers lose Willis, Rasheed Walker, Doubs (valued at a fifth-round level) and Quay Walker (valued at a sixth-round level). The Packers could sign two free agents valued at a fourth-round level and keep their third-round picks.

That big-picture give-and-take will be on Gutekunst’s mind throughout those first waves of free agency, when the top players are signed and the big bucks are thrown around. Unless he has a realistic shot at signing Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum or some other high-impact player, it’s almost impossible to believe Gutekunst will do anything to sacrifice those third-round picks.

Not only are good players available with the 99th and 100th picks – or wherever their exact placement – but they’ll help offset the lack of a first-round pick from the Micah Parsons trade. So will any other picks. Teams can max out their compensation with four picks.

So, will the possibility of getting high-level compensatory picks impact any decisions to add to the roster?

“I think that’s a good question,” Gutekunst told a group of reporters at the Scouting Combine on Tuesday. “It’s about winning now. That’s the most important thing. If there’s players who we can sign that give us the opportunity to win now more so than holding out for a compensatory pick in 2027, that’s the decision we’re going to make.

“But it does factor in as far as the players you’re going to sign. I think it’s a testament to our overall depth that we’ve got a lot of these guys out there that if we don’t end up bringing them back that we’re going to have an opportunity with compensatory picks. Again, it’s a factor but the most important thing is our ability to win in 2026.”

Early And Often for Packers

By being a draft-and-develop franchise, for the most part, the Packers have worked the system better than most teams. From 1994 through 2025, the Ravens have gained a league-high 60 compensatory picks. The Cowboys are next with 58 and the Packers are third with 53.

Compensatory picks for the 2026 draft have not been released. Because the Packers signed Aaron Banks and Nate Hobbs last offseason, they might only receive one or two compensatory picks in the seventh round. By OverTheCap.com’s projection, signing Banks (fourth round) and Hobbs (fifth round) canceled out losing TJ Slaton (sixth round) and cornerback Eric Stokes (seventh round). Their only potential picks would be for center Josh Myers and, maybe, for linebacker Eric Wilson.

Because Green Bay wasn’t going to lose many top free agents last offseason, it made sense for Gutekunst to be aggressive with Banks and Hobbs. This offseason, Green Bay will lose some top free agents, so it would make sense to be conservative in unrestricted free agency and focus on street free agents – veterans who have been released and will not impact the comp-pick formula.

For what it’s worth, third-round compensatory picks in the six drafts from 2020 through 2025 have produced two Pro Bowlers (Quinn Meinerz and Nahshon Wright) an All-Pro (Ernest Jones IV) and a few other high-impact players (such as Alex Highsmith and Leo Chenal).

The last time the Packers had a third-round compensatory pick was 2014, and they used it on tight end Richard Rodgers. Their others are defensive tackle Cletidus Hunt in 1999, cornerback Tyrone Williams in 1996 and running back LeShon Johnson in 1994.

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