Fourth-Down Aggression Played Critical Role in Packers’ Win Over Cardinals

There were 123 offensive snaps during Sunday’s game between the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals. The outcome came down to a pair of fourth downs.

Packers coach Matt LaFleur went for it on three fourth downs. By far the biggest decision came in the fourth quarter. The Packers trailed 23-20 with two-and-a-half minutes remaining and faced a fourth-and-2 at Arizona’s 29-yard line. With the previous play being blown up in the backfield, LaFleur decided to send out Lucas Havrisik to try a game-tying field goal.

As the special teams got set, whistles rang out, stopping the play. LaFleur had called his second timeout of the half.

“When our quarterback’s coming off, I can see the disdain on his face,” LaFleur said after the game.

On Monday, he provided further insight into why he sent the offense back on the field after the timeout.

“Just going back and having a chance to really process everything, so it’s third-and-1 and we called a crappy call right there,” he said. “I’m thinking, ‘All right, if we get stoned for no yards, we’ll just go for it on fourth down.’ When we went backwards – and I know it was only a yard or whatever; it felt like more than that at the time – that’s where there was a little bit of indecision.

“You’ve got to make a quick decision right there, what you want to do. In hindsight, just being critical of myself, I wish we would’ve just gone with the play call, because those timeouts are invaluable, especially late in the game. At that point when we called the timeout, it’s pretty much you’re pushing all the chips into the middle of the table and it’s make or break right there.”

The result of LaFleur’s aggressive decision was a 15-yard completion to Tucker Kraft, not only extending the drive but putting the Packers in the red zone. Less than a minute later, Josh Jacobs punched in a 1-yard touchdown run, giving the Packers the lead with less than 2 minutes to play.

“Luckily,” LaFleur said, “our guys did a great job in pass protection on that play and Tuck did a heck of a job winning his one-on-one and Jordan made the throw. They made it right.”

While it was LaFleur’s aggression that put the Packers in a position to win, they might not have been in that spot without the Cardinals’ fourth-down decision moments earlier.

With just less than 6 minutes remaining in the game, the Cardinals had the ball at their 48-yard line with their own decision to make on fourth-and-1.

They could punt the ball in hopes of pinning the Packers offense deep on their end of the field after forcing a three-and-out on the previous possession. Or they could try to get the first down, burn more clock and potentially make it a two-score game.

They went with the aggressive play, too. They tried to sneak quarterback Jacoby Brissett up the middle to pick up the required yard but were stopped, giving the Packers the ball near midfield. After making a 61-yard field goal before halftime, they were just outside of Lucas Havrisik’s range.

It wasn’t an uncommon decision for the Cardinals to keep the offense out there on fourth-and-1.

According to a 2023 study done by Daniel Cespedes of medium.com, the rate of conversion attempts from the 2017 season to the 2021 season doubled in short-yardage situations.

Meanwhile, the league-median conversion rate for fourth-and-1 went from 27.3 percent in 2017 to 52.6 percent last year, according to Stathead

“Shoot, I probably would’ve done the same thing,” LaFleur said of Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon’s decision.

Aggressive decisions like those can be turning points in any game, just like they were on Sunday. If any of those fourth-down attempts had gone differently, it probably would have been a different outcome.

“It’s big-time,” Love said. “Obviously, I think for Matt to decide to go for that right there in that situation, to have that confidence in the offense for us to go make a play and for us to go out there and do it.

“That’s one of those decisions that, it’s going to suck if we don’t get it but, when you do, it pays off like that, and we go out there and get the win. It was big-time – a big-time play by Tuck to go out there and get that, and obviously to finish off with a touchdown, too.”

Under LaFleur, the Packers are 7-8 in games when the offense goes for it on fourth down three or more times. Eight of those were one-score games, and they had a 100 percent conversion rate in just two of them.

The Packers went for it on fourth down three times against the Cardinals. The first two came on the opening series, with a conversion on an 8-yard pass to Matthew Golden on fourth-and-2 but a failure when Love overthrew Romeo Doubs for what would have been a 38-yard touchdown on fourth-and-5.

The missed conversion by the Packers resulted in a big swing, as they trailed 13-3 late in the first half before Havrisik’s long field goal.

Similarly, if the Cardinals had converted at midfield, they would have had a chance to run out most of the clock and put the game away with another score. If the Packers hadn’t converted at the end of the game, they probably would have lost.

Since the start of the 2024 season, the Packers have faced only 20 fourth-and-1 plays. That’s the second-fewest in the league, according to Stathead. They went for it 15 times and converted 12, punted three times and kicked two field goals. Of those 20 fourth-and-1s, Green Bay’s 60.0 percent conversion rate is tied for the sixth-best.

Fourth-down aggression was the name of the game on Sunday and, luckily for the Packers, those decisions went in their favor down the stretch.

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