How Packers’ Spot in NFC North Changed After First Waves of NFL Free Agency

The Green Bay Packers are stuck in a rut. They haven’t won the NFC North since 2021 and are coming off three consecutive seasons of being the dreaded seventh seed.

It’s obviously going to be difficult for the Packers to take the final step of winning the Super Bowl without taking the first step of winning the division. The NFC North is one of the toughest divisions in the league, with all four teams finishing with winning records in 2025.

The Bears went from worst to first behind quarterback Caleb Williams, coach Ben Johnson and a turnover-creating defense. The Lions went from first to worst but have a roster filled with high-end talent that makes a rebound a possibility, especially if they stay healthy on defense. The Vikings managed to win nine games with a mess at quarterback that Kyler Murray might be signed to solve.

Here’s a closer look.

State of the Packers

Through the start of free agency, the Packers are sort of spinning their wheels.

The signing of defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, who had his best seasons with defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon in Philadelphia, will boost the interior pass rush. But, on the whole, is he a significant upgrade over Colby Wooden? Green Bay traded run defense for pass rush.

Wooden was traded to the Colts for linebacker Zaire Franklin. He had three big-time seasons with the Colts, filling the stat sheet with tackles and turnover-producing big plays, but took a step back last season. He’s less expensive but, with his 30th birthday approaching, is he an upgrade over Quay Walker?

The Packers signed cornerback Benjamin St-Juste, who should be an upgrade over Nate Hobbs, who couldn’t get healthy and was benched last season and was released this week. But will he be better than either Keisean Nixon or Carrington Valentine?

The Packers signed receiver Skyy Moore, who should provide a significant upgrade to Green Bay’s dreadful return game. But the Packers lost receiver Rome Doubs to the Patriots in free agency. Matthew Golden is waiting in the wings and ready for a bigger role, but the Packers might be challenged to fill Doubs’ niche.

Green Bay Packers receiver Romeo Doubs (87) recovers the fumble in the end zone in front of Bears safety Kevin Byard III (31). | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Similarly, the Packers have Jordan Morgan waiting in the wings at left tackle to replace Rasheed Walker, who remains unsigned. Walker wasn’t great but it will be up to Morgan to prove he’s an upgrade.

With seven career starts at center, the Packers made Sean Rhyan the seventh-highest-paid player at the position in the league based on annual pay.

State of the NFC North

Fortunately for the Packers, two of their NFC North rivals, the Bears and Lions, are in the same boat. Their additions haven’t been about bolstering the roster as much as swapping out parts. The Vikings, however, might be on the cusp of a season-changing signing.

Green Bay Packers

Key additions: DT Javon Hargrave, CB Benjamin St-Juste, WR Skyy Moore, LB Zaire Franklin.

Key losses: QB Malik Willis, WR Romeo Doubs, LB Quay Walker, DT Colby Wooden, DE Kingsley Enagbare, RB Emanuel Wison.

Along with everything mentioned above, there will be a new No. 2 quarterback and a new No. 2 running back, and the team at this point might be going with unproven second-year players to replace Rashan Gary and Kingsley Enagbare at defensive end, where Micah Parsons is coming off a torn ACL.

Chicago Bears

Key additions: C Garrett Bradbury, LB Devin Bush, S Coby Bryant, DT Neville Gallimore.

Key losses: C Drew Dalman, WR D.J. Moore, LB Tremaine Edmunds, CB Nahshon Wright, S Kevin Byard.

Three of the Bears’ big additions were player-for-player replacements. The Bears’ defense was terrible last season but feasted on takeaways. Out the door in free agency went Byard, who had seven interceptions, Wright, who had five interceptions and two forced fumbles, and Edmunds, who had four interceptions and led the team in tackles.

The Green Bay Packers will not miss D.J. Moore, who the Bears traded to the Bills. | David Banks-Imagn Images

“The Bears are worse because of all the leadership and experience that went out the door with Kevin Byard, D.J. Moore, Tremaine Edmunds and Drew Dalman,” Bears On SI beat writer Gene Chamberlain said.

“Dalman was the offensive line leader and the other three had been team captains. The locker room loses a lot. They've improved team speed but haven't really addressed their biggest weaknesses on the defensive line.”

Like the Packers, the Bears need a run-stopping defensive tackle and an edge rusher.

Detroit Lions

Key additions: C Cade Mays, S Christian Izien, RB Isiah Pacheco.

Key losses: LB Alex Anzalone, DT Roy Lopez, RB David Montgomery, CB Amik Robertson.

A year late, perhaps, but Mays will be a capable replacement for longtime starting center Dave Ragnow. The Lions lost Lopez and another defensive tackle, D.J. Reader, could be out the door, as well.

“The Lions have again taken a fairly conservative approach to free agency, opting to target clear areas of need with affordable players that do not eat up too much of the salary cap,” John Maakaron of Lions On SI said.

One of those was in the secondary, where the Lions signed safety/nickel Christian Izien on Thursday, “there are still many holes to fill, including at linebacker and defensive,” Maakaron continued. “Through the early portion of free agency, there are growing rumblings Detroit is in a silent rebuild.”

Minnesota Vikings

Key additions: CB James Pierre.

Key losses: DT Javon Hargrave, WR Jalen Nailor

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) is brought down by Minnesota Vikings defensive lineman Javon Hargrave. Hargrave signed with the Packers on Wednesday. | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

It’s been a quiet free agency for the Vikings, but that might change. “All signs” point to them signing Kyler Murray, who was released by the Cardinals and is scheduled to visit Minnesota.

“The Vikings would be a thousand times better by signing Kyler Murray,” Joe Nelson of Vikings On SI said. “If the 2025 Vikings won nine games with terrible QB play from J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer, they should be back to double-digit wins in 2026 with Murray under center.

“The defense signed cornerback James Pierre, which is promising, and they also brought back linebacker Eric Wilson. They still have questions to answer. Who starts at center? What will happen with Jonathan Greenard? All in all, the Vikings were a consistent QB away from being really good last season. Assuming they have their guy, wins should follow.”

The Bottom Line

Last year, the Bears won the NFC North with an 11-6 record. The Packers were second at 9-7-1, and the Vikings and Lions were tied with 9-8 records.

The division standings could have been flipped easily. The Lions, despite finishing last, led the division in net touchdowns (plus-10) and scoring differential (plus-68). The Bears had the worst touchdown differential at even.

Of course, Green Bay had the Bears beaten in Week 16 and again in the playoffs but were unable to finish the job in either game.

The Packers and Vikings had the best records in division games at 4-2. Green Bay was in position to go undefeated; it had every chance to win that game at Chicago and then didn’t bother in Week 18.

Added together, it’s up for grabs, and every team is as capable of finishing first as last. If Caleb Williams improves his accuracy, the Bears could take a big jump. If Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft are at their best at the end of the season, the Packers could be the team to beat. With so many elite players, the Lions have a chance in every game. Murray could be the difference for the Vikings.

From a betting perspective, the Lions are the favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook at +160. The Packers are right behind at +200. The Bears, even after winning the division last year, are off the pace at +340 and the Vikings are +600.

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