Latest NFC Playoff Standings, Probabilities for Packers After Chicago Stunner

With two games remaining in the regular season, here are the latest playoff probabilities, the most likely playoff matchup and much more for the Packers.

Green Bay Packers linebacker Isaiah McDuffie (58) tackles Chicago Bears tight end Colston Loveland. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Aaron Rodgers gave his former team a Christmas present on Sunday. With his Steelers upsetting the Detroit Lions, the Packers’ magic number to clinch a playoff berth is one.

With two games to go in the regular season, the Packers need one win or one Lions loss to get into the playoffs for a third consecutive year.

Here are the latest NFC standings with most of Week 16 complete.

NFC Playoff Standings

These seven teams lead the playoff chase, with the Seahawks, Bears, Eagles, Rams and 49ers having clinched playoff berths.

1. Seattle Seahawks (second place, NFC West): 12-3

2. Chicago Bears (first place, NFC North): 11-4

3. Philadelphia Eagles (first place, NFC East): 10-5

4. Carolina Panthers (first place, NFC South): 8-7

5. Los Angeles Rams (first place, NFC West): 11-4

6. San Francisco 49ers (third place, NFC West): 10-4

At Indianapolis Colts on Monday night

7. Green Bay Packers (second place, NFC North): 9-5-1

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These teams are in the hunt.

8. Detroit Lions (third place, NFC North): 8-7

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (second place, NFC South): 7-8

These teams have been eliminated.

9. Minnesota Vikings (fourth place, NFC North): 7-8

11. Dallas Cowboys (second place, NFC East): 6-8-1

12. Atlanta Falcons (third place, NFC South): 6-9

13. New Orleans Saints (fourth place, NFC South): 5-10

14. Washington Commanders (third place, NFC East): 4-11

15. Arizona Cardinals (fourth place, NFC West): 3-12

16. New York Giants (fourth place, NFC East): 2-13

Last year, the Packers stumbled into the playoffs with back-to-back losses. They can’t afford to do that again.

Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur runs onto the field before the game at the Chicago Bears. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

“Losing sucks,” coach Matt LaFleur said on Monday. “We put a lot of time and effort, energy into this thing. When you don’t get the outcome you so desire, it should be painful. But bottom line is we got to deal with it. We got to learn from it and we just got to find a way to go 1-0. Period. And that’s going to be the message to the team.”

If The Season Were to End Today …

If the wild-card round of the playoffs were to be played this weekend, the Packers would be going back to Chicago to face the Bears. It would be the third playoff game in the long history of the series.

According to Playoff Status, the Bears have a 70 percent chance to be the No. 2 seed and the Packers have a 69 percent chance of being the No. 7 seed.

Added together, the Packers’ most likely opponents are the Bears (57 percent), Eagles (25 percent) and Rams (10 percent).

Packers coach Matt LaFleur didn’t want to look that far down the road.

“I’m not worried about anything past Baltimore,” he said.

Strength of Schedule

According to Tankathon, the Packers’ remaining strength of schedule ranks 22nd, with Green Bay set to complete the regular season with games at home against the Ravens and at the Vikings. Both teams are 7-8, for a combined winning percentage of .467.

The Ravens are hanging on by a thread in the AFC North race, so they’ll be in desperation mode to keep their season alive. The Vikings have won three in a row, including back-to-back games at the Cowboys and Giants.

Both teams have banged-up quarterbacks, with the status of Ravens star Lamar Jackson and Vikings starter J.J. McCarthy in question. Packers quarterback Jordan Love is dealing with a concussion.

The Packers, by the way, are 2.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook for Saturday vs. Baltimore.

“We’ve got the Baltimore Ravens next week,” defensive end Rashan Gary said. “We’ve got another opportunity to erase the taste out of our mouth this week and we have another opportunity to correct ourselves and still put ourselves where we want to be at the end of the season.”

Packers’ NFC North Chances Aren’t Dead

The Packers wasted an enormous opportunity on Saturday night because of their repeated failures to put away the Bears.

Still, Green Bay’s got a small opening to win the division. First, it’ll finish the season with two winnable games. If it does its job – no guarantee, obviously – it would finish 11-5-1.

The Bears, meanwhile, will play at the 49ers next week. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan has put on a masterclass this season in navigating through several high-impact injuries to stay in the race for the No. 1 seed.

If San Francisco beat Chicago, that would put everything on Week 18, when the Lions face the Bears in Chicago. The Lions could very well be eliminated and have nothing to play for, but coach Dan Campbell isn’t likely to let his team get pushed around by a division rival.

Packers Playoff Chances

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Packers have a 92.8 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, up from 89.8 percent last week. While their NFC North chances crashed from 52.9 percent to 10.9 percent, they have a 49.4 percent chance of advancing to the divisional round, a 22.9 percent chance of reaching the NFC Championship Game and a 10.8 percent chance of getting to the Super Bowl.

According to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, Green Bay’s playoff probability based on 100,000 simulations is 94 percent, down just a bit from 95 percent last week. Its odds of winning the NFC North were 68 percent two weeks ago. Now, they’re 8 percent.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers’ playoff chances went from 84 percent before losing to Chicago to 92 percent after losing to Chicago because, obviously, of the Lions’ loss to Pittsburgh.

According to Playoff Status, Green Bay’s playoff chances went from 93 percent to 98 percent. However, its chances of winning the NFC North plunged from 40 percent to 7 percent.

It has a 13 percent chance of reaching the NFC Championship Game, 5 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl and a 2 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

At Pro Football Focus, the Packers have a 90.4 percent chance of reaching the playoffs and a 7.4 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. That’s the sixth-best Super Bowl chance.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers’ playoff odds soared despite last week’s loss. In fact, they were -3000 after beating Chicago in Week 14, -1150 after losing to Denver in Week 15 and are now -4500 after losing to Chicago in Week 16. By implied probability, that’s 97.8 percent.

In the NFC North odds at FanDuel, the Bears for the first time are favorites. And, as you’d expect, they are huge favorites. Chicago is -750 and Green Bay is +600.

To win the NFC, the leading odds at FanDuel are the Rams at +240, the Seahawks at +300, the Eagles at +460, the Packers at +700, and the Bears and 49ers at +850.

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