Most Concerning Development From Packers’ Offseason And Mind-Blowing History

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

After Brandon McManus missed three kicks in the Green Bay Packers’ playoff loss to the Chicago Bears, general manager Brian Gutekunst did what needed to be done.

Even after paying McManus a $1 million roster bonus, Gutekunst acted boldly by trading up to select the consensus best kicker in the draft, Trey Smack, and released McManus. That set up a two-man kicking competition between Smack and Lucas Havrisik that the Packers, for obvious reasons, want Smack to win.

It’s obviously too soon to panic, but the early returns were not encouraging. Smack kicked four times in front of reporters. During the first week of OTAs, it appeared Smack made 7-of-8 attempts. They were all chip-shot kicks – none was longer than 35 yards. During the second week of OTAs, with the challenge ratcheted up with longer kicks and blustery conditions, Smack made 5-of-9 attempts, including two that were well wide of the goalposts.

During the first day of minicamp, Smack bounced back by going 7-of-8 with a long of 58. During the final day of minicamp, however, the No. 1 offense’s successful 2-minute drill set up Smack for a 35-yard kick to win. He missed.

Including a 50-yard mulligan after the 2-minute miss, Smack made 20-of-27 attempts, or 74.1 percent. That’s not good enough. For context, of the 30 kickers who attempted at least 20 field goals last season, only one kicker had a lower success rate. McManus was 24th at 80.0 percent and the league median was 85.7 percent.

The Early Stages for Trey Smack

Kickers should make almost every kick in May and June, when there’s no physical pressure and limited mental pressure. It’s concerning, to say the least, that Smack struggled to such an extent on the practice field, but it’s not the end of the world. There is a learning curve at any position, and Smack has a new snapper, a new holder and a new ball to kick.

“We’re still in the early stages,” coach Matt LaFleur said in the wake of Smack’s 5-of-9 day. “Obviously, all you see is the results, but I think it’s just the whole operation. They’re all getting used to each other in regards to the placement of the ball, how we’re handling it. I think it’s just one of those days.”

The history of drafted vs. undrafted kickers is irrelevant. Every kicker is his own person and will sink or swim on his own physical skill and mental toughness.

The history is noteworthy, though, from the context of drafting Smack in the first place.

Over the past decade, 29 drafted kickers attempted at least 32 field goals, according to Stathead. (That’s the number of attempts by the Patriots’ Andres Borregales as a sixth-round pick last year.) Cam Little, a sixth-round pick by the Jaguars in 2024, leads the way with a 90.5 percent success rate. Blair Walsh, a sixth-round pick by the Vikings in 2012 who kicked through the 2017 season, was the worst at 73.3 percent.

The median is 83.7 percent from a group of three kickers that includes Mason Crosby, Green Bay’s sixth-round pick in 2007. Anders Carlson, the kicker the Packers whiffed on in the sixth round in 2023, was out of the league last season after making 83.3 percent in his first two seasons.

Meanwhile, 38 undrafted kickers over that same span attempted at least 32 field goals. Cameron Dicker is the best at 93.5 percent, Matt Amendola is the worst at 68.6 percent and Matt Prater represents the median at 84.8 percent.

Mind-Blowing Kicker History

Here’s another way to look at it, and this is rather mind-blowing. Three of the 29 drafted kickers were selected for at least one Pro Bowl – one apiece by Jake Elliott, Matt Gay and Greg Zuerlein. That’s 10.3 percent. Meanwhile, 11 of the 38 undrafted kickers were selected for at least one Pro Bowl. That’s 28.9 percent. Led by Justin Tucker’s six and Brandon Aubrey’s three, they combined for 20 Pro Bowls.

In other words, a good undrafted kicker might wind up being better than a kicker who was good enough to get drafted. The odds of getting a significantly above-average kicker, however, are better by waiting until after the draft.

However, not all undrafted kickers are good. Some are booted long before getting to that 32-kick threshold. So, let’s refine the search.

Over the past decade, 32 drafted kickers attempted at least one field goal. The league median remains 83.7 percent. Meanwhile, 70 undrafted kickers attempted at least one field goal. The league median is 83.3 percent.

So, from the median perspective, it goes from a slight edge to the undrafted kickers with a solid sample size to an even slighter edge to the drafted kickers with the smallest possible sample size.

Based simply on history, drafting a kicker is a waste of a pick. The Packers gave up two draft picks to select Smack.

After the draft, Gutekunst said Smack “has a good chance to be a good kicker” in the NFL. It wouldn’t be smooth sailing, though, he predicted.

“All players go through tough times in the National Football League,” he said. “Kickers are front and center because if the guard misses a block, nobody’s on him like if a guy misses a kick. So, it’s a little different that way.

“I certainly expect all these rookies to come in and have tough times. That’s part of the National Football League. But I do think what we did to move up to get him, obviously, we think very highly of him, we think he has a very good chance to succeed in this league, but we did with Anders, as well. That’s part of this and we’ll see how it goes.”

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