The 53-man roster projection

In 10 days, Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst will have the heartless task of having to trim his roster to 53 players.

With 17 of training camp 20 practices and two of the preseason games complete, those decisions are starting to crystalize.

“I think we’re getting closer,” Gutekunst said on Monday, a few days ahead of Thursday’s preseason game against Oakland in Winnipeg. “You’re starting to get closer because you’ve had a couple preseason games to evaluate. There’s been enough tape to start to narrow some things down. But again, Thursday night and here against Kansas City will be big. So, a lot of things to be decided, but we’re getting closer.”

Having watched all 16 fully open practices and talked to the coaches, here’s my best guess at the 53 that Gutekunst will hand off to coach Matt LaFleur for Week 1 in Chicago.

QUARTERBACK

Who makes it (3): Aaron Rodgers, DeShone Kizer, Tim Boyle.

Who does not: Manny Wilkins.

Reasoning: With Rodgers’ injury history, the prudent thing would be to keep three quarterbacks on the roster. Kizer and Boyle might be flawed options but it beats being one disaster away from having to start the undrafted Wilkins.

RUNNING BACK

Who makes it (4): RB Aaron Jones, RB Jamaal Williams, RB Tra Carson, FB Danny Vitale.

Who does not: RB Dexter Williams, RB Darrin Hall, RB Keith Ford, FB Malcolm Johnson, FB Tommy Bohanon.

Reasoning: The intrigue is with the third running back. Will it be Carson, who has flashed the better all-around game? Will it be Williams, a sixth-round pick who has shown a dynamic running ability but an inability to factor in the passing game? Will Hall or Ford state their case in the final two preseason games? Hall had a big run last week against Baltimore and Ford has flashed a bit in his limited practices since joining the team on Aug. 6. For now, I’ll go with Carson, whose running stats in the games have been sabotaged by horrendous blocking. At least he’s shown he can catch and block, which seems like a necessity in LaFleur’s offense. This battle almost certainly will go down to the bitter end.

RECEIVER

Who makes it (7): Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Jake Kumerow, Equanimeous St. Brown, Allen Lazard, Trevor Davis.

Who does not: Darrius Shepherd, J’Mon Moore, Malik Taylor, Teo Redding.

Reasoning: This, obviously, is one of the more intrigue-filled position battles on the roster. First and foremost, do the Packers keep six or seven? For what it’s worth, I picked the other positions first and came up with 46 players, so kept seven at receiver. From there, do you go with Lazard’s size and preseason production? Shepherd’s production as a receiver and returner? Davis’ history as a returner while ignoring his injury history? I went with Davis, who has proven he can field the ball and make something happen in the return game. Considering a total of 101 receivers were gobbled up on draft weekend and Shepherd was not among them, it’s hard to imagine the Packers couldn’t get him on the practice squad. Ultimately, though, receiver is practically a dime-a-dozen position and the world will continue, regardless of who stays and who goes.

TIGHT END

Who makes it (4): Jimmy Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger.

Who does not: Evan Baylis, Pharoah McKever.

Reasoning: It’s almost impossible to see this shaking out any other way. Graham is having a strong training camp, Lewis was re-signed because he can block and LaFleur wants to run the football, Tonyan is starting to realize his potential and Sternberger was a third-round draft pick.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Who makes it (8): LT David Bakhtiari, LG Elgton Jenkins, C Corey Linsley, RG Billy Turner, RT Bryan Bulaga, OT Alex Light, G/C Justin McCray, G/C Lucas Patrick.

Who does not: G Lane Taylor, G Cole Madison, G Anthony Coyle, T Gerhard de Beer, T/G Adam Pankey, T Yosh Nijman.

Reasoning: The Packers used a second-round pick on Jenkins. They might as well play him, with the hope being that a bunch of game experience will accelerate his growth. Taylor is a legit NFL starter who doesn’t seem too out of place in a zone-blocking scheme. There should be a trade market for a player making $2.6 million in 2019 and $3.8 million in 2020. There are two gambles here, though. First is that Jenkins will be a better player in, say, Week 9 than Taylor. Second is Patrick/McCray will be able to step in at right guard should Turner have to replace an injured Bulaga at right tackle. Madison, a fifth-round pick last year, and Nijman, an undrafted rookie with excellent athleticism, should be easy practice-squad stashes.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Who makes it (5): Kenny Clark, Dean Lowry, Montravius Adams, Tyler Lancaster, Kingsley Keke.

Who does not: Fadol Brown, James Looney, Deon Simon, Olive Sagapolu.

Reasoning: The hard cut was Brown, who made some plays as a late-season addition last year but missed a bunch of training camp with a calf injury. His ability to play defensive tackle or on the edge in a four-man front is intriguing. However, outside linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Rashan Gary will be part of the defensive line mix, as well. That makes keeping six defensive line an unnecessary luxury. Lancaster’s run-stopping prowess and Keke’s explosion off the ball should provide strong situational depth.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER

Who makes it (5): Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, Kyler Fackrell, Reggie Gilbert.

Who does not: Randy Ramsey, Greg Roberts, Markus Jones.

Reasoning: With Gary and, especially, Za’Darius Smith moonlighting as interior rushers on third-and-long, it’s a necessity to keep at least five. While Fackrell had the breakout season with 10.5 sacks last season, Gilbert actually had as many pressures with 21, according to Pro Football Focus. However, don’t rule out Ramsey if the Packers decide to take a flier on upside. His athleticism is obvious. The Packers guaranteed $70,000 of Roberts’ salary – it’s unheard of for the Packers to do that with an undrafted rookie – but he’s been sidelined for months with a core-muscle injury. Jones put up staggering numbers at Division II Angelo State. Between Ramsey, Roberts and Jones, there’s some talent to develop at a position group that’s the lifeblood of a 3-4 scheme.

INSIDE LINEBACKER

Who makes it (4): Blake Martinez, Curtis Bolton, James Crawford, TBA.

Who does not: Oren Burks (injured reserve), Ty Summers, Brady Sheldon.

Reasoning: This comes with a bit of an asterisk. Burks will have to make the opening roster so he can be put on injured reserve and then brought back when healthy. Looking past that, the Packers might need to add a veteran to the bunch, so this will be a position that Gutekunst and his staff will monitor closely as roster moves are made around the league. The good thing is a veteran can come in and play right away because, when in doubt, he can look to Martinez for guidance. Crawford’s proven special-teams acumen gives him a leg up on the others, and the athletic Bolton simply has performed better than Summers on the practice field and in the games. Now, if Summers can post 20 tackles the next two weeks and only miss one tackle (rather than the eight he’s missed by my count in the first two games), the pendulum could swing in his direction.

CORNERBACK

Who makes it (6): Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, Josh Jackson, Tony Brown, Tramon Williams, Ka’Dar Hollman.

Who does not: Chandon Sullivan, Kabion Ento, Nydair Rouse

Reasoning: The six who made it are obvious. Tony Brown is probably the biggest surprise of training camp. I’d guess there hasn’t been a player on the roster who has broken up more passes than Brown. During a recent 11-on-11 period at practice, Rodgers threw four passes at Brown and got zero completions. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine raved about Hollman on Saturday even when not asked about Hollman. Sullivan is a tough cut. The undrafted Ento, an unproductive receiver at Colorado, made a few eye-popping pass breakups before suffering a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Baltimore game and almost certainly will sideline him vs. Oakland. His talent is worth grooming.

SAFETY

Who makes it (4): Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage, Raven Greene, Ibraheim Campbell.

Who does not: Josh Jones, Natrell Jamerson, Will Redmond, Mike Tyson, Tray Matthews.

Reasoning: During the second half of last season, Jones was the main man as the team’s dime linebacker. However, Greene has held that spot throughout training camp. Then, the team re-signed Campbell – another dime linebacker option – and Jones suddenly started missing practices due to illness. Why on earth would the team have signed Campbell, who’s on PUP while recovering from last year’s torn ACL, if it didn’t intend to move on from Jones? After all, how many hybrid safety/linebackers does a team need? If that’s the case and the team has decided to part ways with the 2017 second-round pick, it will be interesting to see if the Packers can get anything in a trade. Jamerson and Redmond are tough cuts with their ability to play cornerback, safety and nickel. Redmond has been a No. 1 on special teams and would be a logical candiate to make the team if Campbell opens the regular season on PUP.

SPECIALISTS

Who makes it (3): K Mason Crosby, P JK Scott, LS Hunter Bradley.

Who does not: K Sam Ficken.

Reasoning: Ficken made a 63-yarder on Family Night but hasn’t been consistent enough to beat out Crosby. On the practice field, Ficken is 34-of-42 (81.0 percent) while Crosby is 16-of-17 (94.1 percent). That doesn’t mean Crosby is in the clear, though. His cap charge of $4.85 million makes him the most-expensive kicker in the NFL. Coming off a poor season and with changes at coach and special-teams coordinator, Crosby doesn’t have much of a safety net. The same is true for Bradley, who hasn’t had any awful snaps in camp but hasn’t always been on the money, either.