Next Gen Stats Show Rodgers’ Dominance vs. Titans

GREEN BAY, Wis. – How dominant was Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers vs. the Tennessee Titans?
According to Zebra Sports, whose RFID chips are what power the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, his 88.0 percent completion rate was 14.6 percent over expectation based on factors that include receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field and the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher.
Rodgers sliced and diced the Titans in Green Bay’s 40-14 romp. As noted by John Pollard, the vice president of business development for Zebra Sports, Rodgers:
- Went 5-of-7 for 91 yards with three touchdowns and a +26.0 completion percentage over expectation on throws of 10-plus air yards.
- Went 10-of-12 for 140 yards with two touchdowns and a +25.0 percent CPOE vs. the blitz.
- Went 8-of-9 for 103 yards with two touchdowns and a +27.3 percent CPOE on play-action.
It wasn’t just Rodgers. Just 4 percent of Rodgers’ attempts were thrown into a tight window, the lowest rate among all quarterbacks in Week 16.
Rodgers’ two-best CPOE performances since 2016 have come in his three last games (+15.0 percent in Week 14 vs. Detroit).
Rodgers’ favorite target, as is typically the case, was Davante Adams. Adams caught 11-of-12 passes for 142 yards and three touchdowns. Paced by his catch-and-run gain of 27 yards on the final series, he picked up 55 yards after the catch. That was 27 yards over expectation. Only one of his targets, the 32-yard catch on the final series, came in a tight window.
According to Zebra, Adams finished with at least one reception on seven different route types. He has 10-plus targets on eight different routes this season, the most in the NFL.
“He’s the kind of guy, like Greg Jennings on Day 1 ran a curl route and the way he got in and out of his break was unbelievable,” Rodgers said as part of the accompanying video. “And you were just like, ‘Wow. OK. That guy’s a player.’ Davante had similar early moments where he ran a few routes and you’re just thinking, ‘Man, this guy has some special abilities.’
On the ground, AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones combined for 86 rushing yards over expectation. Dillon, whose 124 rushing yards were more than he had the entire season, had 24 rushing yards over expectation. Jones’ 94 rushing yards were 62 yards over expectation.
Finally, the defense has recorded three of its four highest pressure-rate games over the past four weeks, including 35.7 percent vs. Tennessee. Outside linebackers Za’Darius Smith, Rashan Gary and Preston Smith all forced a turnover via pressure.
Welcome to the #99Club, @tae15adams‼️@AaronRodgers12 surprises Davante with the news that he's finally a 9️⃣9️⃣ overall in #Madden21@EAMaddenNFL | #GoPackGo https://t.co/Vu7eR3523x
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 31, 2020
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Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.