Packers 2022 NFL Free Agency Preview: Receivers

With NFL free agency officially starting on Wednesday (but the negotiating window opening on Monday), here is a look at the Green Bay Packers’ receiver situation.

Packers Level of Need

Green Bay’s need could be small or large, depending on what happens over the next handful of days.

Packers Outlook

With Davante Adams back on a franchise tag, one of the NFL’s premier players will catch another hundred-and-some passes from Aaron Rodgers. Now, what will happen with Marquez Valdes-Scantling (unrestricted free agent), Allen Lazard (restricted free agent) and Randall Cobb (potential cut)? Those three players combined to catch 16 touchdown passes last season. Equanimeous St. Brown (unrestricted free agent) might not be back, either.

Strength of Free Agent Talent Pool

7, on a 1-to-10 scale. With Adams (franchise tag), Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin (franchise tag) and the Chargers’ Mike Williams (re-signed) off the market, what could have been an elite receiver class has been greatly watered down.

Best Available Receivers in Free Agency

Allen Robinson, Bears (28): Robinson and the Packers seemed like a potential marriage in free agency in 2018. In 2019 and 2020, he caught 200 passes for 2,397 yards and 13 touchdowns, but was forgotten by the Bears in 2021 (38 receptions, 410 yards and one touchdown). Wrote SI: “He’s strictly a contested-catch receiver – a positive in that he could age well (he’ll be 29 in August) but a negative in that chemistry with his next quarterback will be crucial.” At 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, he’s a power player. Of 75 receivers targeted at least 58 times, he ranked 73rd with 2.1 yards after the catch per catch, according to PFF.

D.J. Chark, Jaguars (25): Chark’s had only one big season with 73 catches for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns in 2019. He caught 53 passes in 2020 and missed most of 2021 with a broken ankle. “Chark may end up being one of the best buys in free agency. His elite athleticism, bullish frame and solid ball-tracking skills were drowned out by the constant schematic mess that was Jacksonville’s offense over the past few seasons,” read the note on Chark as part of SI’s ranking of the top 221 free agents. At the 2018 Combine, he measured 6-foot-4, ran his 40 in 4.34 seconds and posted a vertical jump of 40 inches.

Odell Beckham Jr., Rams (29): Beckham topped 1,000 receiving yards in five of his first six seasons. However, he caught 23 passes for 319 yards in 2020 and 44 passes for 537 yards in 2021. He came up huge in the Rams’ Super Bowl run, however, including nine receptions for 113 yards in the NFC Championship Game vs. the 49ers. He suffered a torn ACL in the Super Bowl and might not be ready for the start of the regular season. It will be fascinating to see how he's viewed. Is he the dominant playoff force? Or the malcontent the Browns dumped at midseason?

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers (25): Smith-Schuster needs a new quarterback. He’ll get one, regardless of where he winds up. A second-round pick in 2017, he had a monster second season with 111 receptions for 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns. In 2020, he averaged just 8.6 yards on 97 receptions. He also averaged 8.6 yards per catch in 2021, which was limited to five games by a shoulder injury. “While he might never be more than a complementary pass-catcher as a big slot, he also brings value as a blocker. A chance to play in a more aggressive passing offense could allow him to recapture his early-career form,” noted SI.

Christian Kirk, Cardinals (25): A second-round pick in 2018, Kirk set career highs with 77 receptions, 982 yards and a 74.8 percent catch rate last season. He’s primarily a slot receiver. Surprisingly considering how he played at Texas A&M, he tied for 62nd with 3.1 YAC per catch, the lowest mark of his career. He has a modest history as a punt returner (6.5 average on 51 runbacks). At 5-foot-10 3/8, he’s got 4.45 speed in the 40.

Michael Gallup, Cowboys (26): A third-round pick in 2018, Gallup caught 66 passes for 1,107 yards and six touchdowns in 2019. Injuries limited him to nine games in 2021, when he gained a career-low 7.2 yards per target, and he suffered a torn ACL in Week 17 so might not be available for the start of 2022. His career catch rate is only 55.5 percent and he forced only one missed tackle in 2021. He had an appalling 13 drops in 2019 but seven in 2020 and three in 2021.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers (27): After leading the league with a 20.9-yard average and scoring a career-high six touchdowns in 2020, bigger and better things seemed on the horizon after an excellent training camp. Instead, injuries limited him to 11 games and he caught only 26 passes for 430 yards (16.5 average) and three scores. At least he didn’t drop any passes after dropping 15 the previous three seasons. At 6-foot-4 and with 4.37 speed, he’s a premier deep threat. Aaron Rodgers was kicking himself at times for not taking advantage often enough. More than likely, a source said Valdes-Scantling has priced himself out of Green Bay.

Cedrick Wilson, Cowboys (26): A sixth-round pick in 2018, Wilson emerged last season with 45 receptions for 602 yards and six touchdowns. Most of that production came from the slot. He posted 100-yard games against Las Vegas and Philadelphia. While Wilson has done next to nothing as a punt returner (3.8 average on 18 runbacks), he’s 5-for-5 for 111 yards and one touchdown as a passer. He ran a 4.55 at 6-foot-2 1/4.

Keelan Cole, Jets (28): An emerging receiver during four seasons with the Jaguars, Cole caught only 28 passes for 449 yards and one touchdown last year for New York. Four passes thrown his way were intercepted – probably more of an indictment on the Jets’ quarterbacks than Cole, obviously. Perhaps the most noteworthy play of his career was a 91-yard touchdown on a punt return at Green Bay in 2020 when he made JK Scott look a bit foolish. He went undrafted out of Kentucky Wesleyan in 2017.

Braxton Berrios, Jets (26): A sixth-round pick in 2018, Berrios was a Pro Bowler in 2021 for his work on special teams. Playing mostly in the slot, he caught 46 passes for 431 yards (9.4 average) and two touchdowns. He had one drop and tied for fourth with a 2.1 percent drop rate. As a returner, he averaged 13.4 yards on punts and 30.4 yards with one touchdown on kickoffs. At 5-foot-8 5/8, he’s probably too short for the Packers’ tastes but they do need to fix their special teams.

Russell Gage, Falcons: (26): A sixth-round pick in 2018, Gage has emerged as an underrated weapon with 49 receptions for 446 yards in 2019, 72 receptions for 786 yards in 2020 and 66 receptions for 770 yards in 2021. About half his snaps last season came from the slot. He’s a sure-handed possession receiver who’s got some slipperiness to him after the catch with 24 forced missed tackles the past three seasons.

Emmanuel Sanders, Bills (34): Sanders, who will turn 35 on March 17, is far removed from being a premier receiver but he still knows how to get open. He had three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in 2014, 2015 and 2016 but had only 42 receptions for 626 yards and four touchdowns last season. Of 75 receivers to be targeted 58 times, Sanders ranked 74th in YAC per catch (2.3) and last in missed tackles (zero).

Will Fuller, Dolphins (27): Fuller is one of the more overrated players in the game. In six seasons, he’s never come close to reaching 1,000 yards. He had a strong season for Houston in 2020, with 53 receptions for 879 yards and eight touchdowns – all career highs. The Packers were interested in a trade at the time but couldn’t pull it off. Good thing; shortly thereafter, he was suspended for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. He missed most of last season with a finger injury. With 4.32 speed in the 40 at the 2016 Combine, he’ll be coveted even though he's played in only 52 of a possible 87 regular-season games.

Zay Jones, Raiders (26): Jones caught 20 passes in 2019 and 14 in 2020 before the former second-round pick re-emerged in 2021 with 47 receptions for 546 yards and one touchdown. His 7.8 yards per target was the best mark of his career. With one drop, his 2.1 percent drop rate ranked fourth among receivers. Despite being 6-foot-2 and with 4.45 speed, he’s at his best as a possession receiver working the intermediate routes.

A.J. Green, Cardinals (33): Once upon a time, Green was one of the great players. He was picked for the Pro Bowl in each of his first seven seasons. However, he caught 46 passes in 2018, didn’t play at all in 2019 and caught 47 passes in 2020. Green signed with Arizona last offseason and had a bit of a career rebirth with 54 receptions for 848 yards and three scores. He caught 12-of-20 passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield. That was tied with Kirk for the fifth-most deep receptions. The 6-foot-4 Green ranks sixth among active players with 10,278 receiving yards.

Sammy Watkins, Ravens (28): The fourth pick of the 2014 draft, Watkins is nothing more than a big name. He caught 65 passes for 982 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie and 60 passes for 1,047 yards and nine touchdowns during his second season. Over the past six seasons, he’s failed to reach 55 catches or 700 yards. He’s scored a not-so-grand total of nine touchdowns the past four years. Last year, he caught 27 passes but had six drops.

Green Bay Packers Unrestricted Free Agents

Here is a look at the Green Bay Packers' crop of unrestricted free agents, starting with All-Pro receiver Davante Adams, who was given the franchise tag on March 8.

WR Davante Adams

Status: Franchise tagged.

Age: 29. 2021 contract: $12.25 million base salary, the final year of a four-year, $58 million extension signed late in 2017.

When Aaron Rodgers calls Adams a future Hall of Famer, he’s not kidding. Over the last six seasons, Adams ranks No. 1 among receivers with 581 receptions (31 more than DeAndre Hopkins), 7,192 receiving yards (63 more than Julio Jones) and 69 touchdowns (nine more than Mike Evans). Yes, it helps to have Rodgers throwing him the football, but it helps Rodgers to have Adams running routes and attracting attention.

The one downside is Adams will turn 30 on New Year’s Eve. Contracts should be about projected production and not past production. There’s no doubt a 30-year-old Adams will be great. But how about a 33-year-old Adams?

“Obviously, we do a lot of studies on those metrics and different things,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said before the Scouting Combine. “One of the things we look at specifically for guys who are Hall of Fame-caliber players, I think there’s a lot of production into their 30s. But, at the same time, it’s like anything, there’s risk either way.”

Given his injury-related struggles in 2015, Adams has gone from potential bust (as in blown second-round draft pick) to potential bust (as in Pro Football Hall of Fame bronze bust).

Likelihood of return: High.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Age: 27. 2021 contract: $2.183 million base salary. (After reaching playing-time thresholds, he played under the NFL’s proven-performance escalator in 2021.)

After leading the league with a 20.9-yard average and scoring a career-high six touchdowns in 2020, Valdes-Scantling turned in a strong training camp that looked like a sign of bigger and better things in 2021. Instead, injuries limited him to 11 games and he caught only 26 balls for 430 yards (16.5 average) and three scores. While his overall numbers declined, he didn’t drop any passes.

Valdes-Scantling is a premier deep threat and could be coveted by teams who need a deep threat and have money to spend. He led the NFL with six receptions of 40-plus yards in 2020; over the last three seasons, he’s tied for third in the league with seven touchdown receptions of 40-plus yards. Even in a draft class filled with athletes, it’s hard to match Valdes-Scantling’s proven combination of 6-foot-4 with 4.37 speed in the 40.

Likelihood of return: Low.

WR Equanimeous St Brown

Age: 25. 2021 contract: One-year, $850,000. (Remember, he was cut at the end of training camp last year, meaning the final season of his rookie contract was torn up.)

St. Brown was considered a top receiver prospect in 2018. He surprisingly fell into the sixth round. Turns out, the teams got that one right. St. Brown caught 21 passes as a rookie but just 16 the past three years. In 2021, he caught 9-of-17 targets for 98 yards and zero touchdowns. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers complimented him throughout the season, but words didn’t deliver passes. He was a positive contributor on special teams – a rarity on Green Bay’s inept units. He might want to get a fresh start.

Likelihood of return: Low.

TE Robert Tonyan

Age: 27. 2021 contract: $3.384 million on restricted free agent tender.

Not many players lost more money in 2021 than Tonyan. He was a breakout star in 2020 with 52 receptions for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns. Of the 34 tight ends who were targeted at least 40 times in the passing game, Tonyan was No. 1 in catch percentage (89.7), drop percentage (0.0) and passer rating (148.3), according to PFF.

In 2021, he was forced to help in protection, which curtailed his numbers. It appeared he was on his way toward breaking loose with impact games vs. Washington and Arizona but suffered a torn ACL vs. the Cardinals on Oct. 28. Maybe he’ll be available at some point in training camp. The Packers have nobody remotely close to providing Tonyan’s impact.

Likelihood of return: Moderate.

G/C Lucas Patrick

Age: 28. 2021 contract: $1.65 million base salary for 2021, the final year of a two-year, $2.795 million extension signed late in 2019.

The Packers invested five draft picks on interior blockers the past two seasons, with Jon Runyan, Jake Hanson and Simon Stepaniak in 2020 and Josh Myers and Royce Newman in 2021. Yet Patrick just keeps starting games. The past two seasons, he started 28 of a possible 33.

In 13 starts in 2021, he allowed one sack – in the finale vs. Detroit - according to Pro Football Focus. With his ability to play all three interior positions, Patrick is a key component on the offensive line. He’s a rugged, no-nonsense blocker who is appreciated by Aaron Rodgers. One key is the future of Elgton Jenkins. Do the Packers view him as a Pro Bowl guard or a Pro Bowl-caliber tackle? If Jenkins is viewed as a tackle, then Patrick, Runyan, Myers and Newman would provide four quality options for the three interior spots.

Likelihood of return: Moderate.

RT Dennis Kelly

Age: 32. 2021 contract: One-year, $1.325 million.

Kelly was a wise veteran addition at the start of training camp. A 16-game starter for the Titans in 2020, it was Kelly to the rescue when right tackle Billy Turner missed four games with a knee injury late in the 2021 season. He was excellent, a total of one sack and three pressures allowed, but got worked over by Pro Bowler Nick Bosa in the playoff game. The sack/strip of Aaron Rodgers late in the first half doomed a drive that led to a blocked field goal. You could do a lot worse than having him in reserve but the finances could get in the way.

Likelihood of return: Low.

DT Tyler Lancaster

Age: 27. 2021 contract: One-year, $1.25 million.

The Packers’ defensive line depth is almost nonexistent. Pro Bowler Kenny Clark is the standout. He was joined in the starting lineup throughout the season by Dean Lowry, who had a career-high five sacks but could be released to save $4.08 million of cap space. Kingsley Keke started eight games but was released late in the season. That leaves Lancaster, who started three games, fifth-round rookie TJ Slaton, who showed some potential in 15 snaps per game, and Jack Heflin, who barely played as an undrafted rookie. Can the Packers do better than Lancaster? Of course. But you can’t replace someone without actually having a replacement.

Likelihood of return: Moderate.

OLB Whitney Mercilus

Age: 31. 2021 contract: One-year, $1.075 million (prorated to $716,667).

A change of scenery brought the best out of the 31-year-old Mercilus until he suffered a torn biceps. In six games that included 110 pass-rushing snaps with Houston, he had two sacks and five pressures. In four games that included 80 pass-rushing snaps with Green Bay, he had one sack and 10 pressures. Of 144 edge rushers with at least Mercilus’ number of rushes, Rashan Gary was second, Preston Smith was 17th and Mercilus was 36th in PFF’s pass-rush win percentage. He’ll turn 32 before training camp.

He’d be a nice No. 3 if the Packers release Za’Darius Smith, but the Packers’ cap problems could stand in the way. If the Packers need an outside linebacker after the draft and he’s still available, perhaps this would be worth revisiting.

Likelihood of return: Low.

ILB De’Vondre Campbell

Age: 28. 2021 contract: One-year, $2 million.

So, this is what a real, honest-to-goodness, game-changing inside linebacker looks like. Somehow unemployed in June despite five solid seasons, Campbell joined the Packers on a one-year, $2 million contract. The Packers were rewarded with an All-Pro season and Campbell will be rewarded in free agency.

Even while sitting out the season finale against Detroit, Campbell finished seventh in the NFL with 145 tackles. He entered that final game with a league-leading 101 solo tackles. Of the 34 players with at least 107 tackles, Campbell and Washington’s Cole Holcomb were the only players with at least one sack, one interception, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. Campbell was the only linebacker in the league with 100-plus tackles and at least two sacks, two forced fumbles and two interceptions. After swinging and missing on veterans like Christian Kirksey, Antonio Morrison and B.J. Goodson, the Packers got their first All-Pro linebacker since Ray Nitschke in 1966.

“Yeah, that was my whole thought process from the time I signed, just to kind of reintroduce myself,” Campbell said. “Casuals don’t really know who I am, but people who watch tape, people who know the game of football [know]. I get told week in and week out from the people I compete against, ‘You’re a hell of a player and you always have been.’ I’m just glad that people are starting to realize it. That just kind of makes me feel good. Something I’ve always known, but to hear it from other people, you always kind of need that reassurance, so that was a huge goal of mine, just kind of re-establishing myself.”

The Packers would love to have him back. Can they scrape up enough money from between the couch cushions?

Likelihood of return: Moderate.

ILB Oren Burks

Age: 27. 2021 contract: $920,000 base salary, the final year of his four-year, $3.65 million rookie deal.

In 2018, the Packers traded their fourth- and fifth-round selections to grab Burks in the third round. Oops. In four seasons, he started seven games and recorded 84 tackles. Billed as a new-age linebacker after starting his career at Vanderbilt as a safety, he didn’t break up a single pass in four seasons. In 2021, he recorded a career-high 26 tackles and finished second on the team with 10 stops on special teams.

Likelihood of return: Low.

CB Rasul Douglas

Age: 26. 2021 contract: One-year, $770,000 (prorated to $661,111).

When Jaire Alexander went down with a shoulder injury against Pittsburgh in Week 4, it could have been a fatal blow. And it would have been fatal if the Packers had been forced to rely on Kevin King or Isaac Yiadom. Instead, in one of the great practice-squad raidings in NFL history, Gutekunst found Douglas toiling in Arizona.

Having failed to make rosters in Las Vegas and Houston during training camp, Douglas saved Green Bay’s season. In merely 12 games with nine starts, Douglas tied for fourth in the NFL with five interceptions. That equaled Douglas’ total from his first four NFL seasons. Two were returned for touchdowns and two saved victories over Arizona and Cleveland. Of 88 corners with 50 percent playing time, he allowed a seventh-ranked completion rate of 52.2 percent. He also was perhaps the best player on special teams.

“Of course,” he said about returning to the Packers with a long-term contract. “I built a family here. I’ve still got some unfinished business, I feel like, to handle. Of course, I want to be here. But I don’t think that’s all my decision to make.” The Packers would love to have him back but he probably priced himself out of Green Bay.

Likelihood of return: Low.

CB Chandon Sullivan

Age: 25. 2021 contract: One-year, $2.133 million on restricted free agent tender.

If the Packers can’t afford Rasul Douglas, then Sullivan would be a budget-friendly third piece to join Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes in the defensive backfield. Even if the Packers can afford Douglas, Sullivan would be a quality depth piece.

Starting 10 games for a second consecutive season, Sullivan intercepted a career-high three passes. Of 28 defensive backs to play at least 200 coverage snaps in the slot, Sullivan ranked third with 13.4 snaps per reception and eighth with 1.02 yards per coverage snap, according to PFF. Are there better slot defenders? Yes. But you could do worse, too, and Shemar Jean-Charles’ rookie training camp was not promising.

Likelihood of return: Moderate.

CB Kevin King

Age: 26. 2021 contract: One-year, $5 million.

Gutekunst re-signed King in free agency last offseason to serve as an insurance policy just in case he couldn’t find a starting cornerback in the draft. He did with Stokes, then struck gold with Rasul Douglas.

King started his first six games – shockingly, he missed five games due to injuries in a six-game span – then barely played down the stretch once the team settled on Stokes, Douglas and Sullivan as its best trio.

King played in 51 of 81 games in five seasons. After picking off five passes and breaking up 15 in 2019, he had one interception and eight passes defensed in 21 games the last two years. Presumably, that will close the book on the team’s first pick of the 2017 draft other than his lingering cap hits ($750,000 per year through 2025) and the painful reminders every time T.J. Watt sacks the quarterback.

Likelihood of return: Almost zero.

P Corey Bojorquez.

Age: 25. 2021 contract: One-year, $1.02 million.

Acquired at the end of training camp, Bojorquez ranked among the league’s top punters until the wheels came off in a Week 12 game against Chicago. Still, his 40.0-yard net average was 3.0 yards better than JK Scott’s mark from 2020. He’s got a lot of ability – he had the NFL’s longest punt each of the past two seasons. With added consistency, he could be a major weapon. Will he ever be a reliable holder, though? Having entered the NFL in 2018, it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll ever consistently maximize his talent.

Likelihood of return: Moderate.

Restricted Free Agent: WR Allen Lazard

Lazard is the team's only restricted free agent. He is coming off a season in which he set career highs in receptions (40), yards (513) and touchdowns (eight). Other than a couple blips on the radar, coach Matt LaFleur’s beloved “goon” caught the ball well, fought for every yard and blocked his butt off. Not many explosive runs didn’t involve Lazard.

Over the last five games of this past season, his six touchdown receptions were tied for second-most in the league. Not the most fleet of foot, his constant blocking allows him to catch defenders by surprise on deep passes. Green Bay has gone 11-2 when he scored. The second-round restricted free-agent tender will cost $3.986 million.