Rodgers Rises in MVP Race at Sportsbooks

Aaron Rodgers opened the season as more than a long shot to win NFL MVP. He was viewed as someone with no shot.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Aaron Rodgers opened the season as more than a long shot to win NFL MVP. He was viewed as someone with no shot.

“At the beginning of the year, he was 12/1 [+1,200] and it was getting minimal play,” said Doug Castaneda, the director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas. “Normally, that’s the case when the odds just aren’t there for the offering. Some would say that’s a pretty good price for a guy who’s done it before and there were no signs of that team going downhill. With Aaron, the explosiveness that they’ve shown in the history of him being at the helm, 12/1 was a pretty attractive price. That being said, there were no takers. There were only a few tickets scattered about prior to the season starting.”

Rodgers was a much longer shot at other sportsbooks.

“He was a bit of a darkhorse to win the MVP, starting the season off at +2,500 odds,” Mike Korn, a sports analyst for PointsBet, said. “That was not even in the top 20 odds-wise, and behind other QBs like Tom Brady (+1,600), Carson Wentz (+2,000), Dak Prescott (+1,200), Drew Brees (+2,000) and DeshaunWatson (+1,600).”

Rodgers isn’t a darkhorse anymore. He is front and center in the MVP conversation after a red-hot start. In powering the 4-0 Packers, Rodgers is +300 and trails only Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Seattle’s Russell Wilson (both +200) at PointsBet. Rodgers is +400 at Wynn.

Through four games, Rodgers has completed 70.5 percent of his passes and is on pace for about 4,850 yards with 52 touchdowns. Each of those figures would crush his career-best marks. His passer rating of 128.4 trails only Wilson. His touchdown rate of 9.4 percent would set an NFL record, a key reason why Green Bay is No. 1 in the NFL in scoring.

Rodgers became the third quarterback in NFL history (Peyton Manning in 2013 and Mahomes in 2018 are the others) to have 1,200-plus passing yards, 13-plus passing touchdowns and zero INTs in the first four games of a season.

At Circa Sports, Wilson is a commanding +140 to win MVP while Rodgers and Mahomes are +275. Rodgers was way back in the pack at +3,000 at the start of the season but has closed quickly.

“Rodgers’ jump can be attributed to the familiarity with the offense,” Circa’s sportsbook manager, Glenn Herzog, said. “They are getting into more complex uses in his second year with (coach Matt) LaFleur. Obviously, the talent is always there for Rodgers, so the surrounding environment is so key to this price moving. Like Wilson [with DK Metcalf], he was assisted by the improvement of a wideout. Allen Lazard has filled a need that they supposedly didn't address in the draft.”

Added Casteneda: “He’s had some subpar years based on his standards – not compared to other quarterbacks but his own standard. Maybe the last few years weren’t so good, though that’s probably attributed more to the end of McCarthy’s run. Since the start of the season, you’ve seen odds lowered considerably after he’s had some impressive wins and the team is on cruise control. This stuff can fluctuate quickly. It’s all about positioning and how good the team is, ultimately. So, it’s early but you definitely missed the good times in grabbing Russell and Aaron.”