SI.com Mock Draft: Early QBs Push Receivers to Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The worst-case scenario for the Green Bay Packers would be a mid-draft run on receivers taking out the top prospects.

The best-case scenario would be the one laid out by Sports Illustrated’s Conor Orr in his mock draft.

Orr had three quarterbacks being taken in the first 11 picks. Thus, the Packers were on the front side of the run of receivers.

With Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson gone at No. 10 and Alabama’s Jameson Williams taken at No. 18, the Packers had Arkansas’ Treylon Burks, Ohio State’s Chris Olave, USC’s Drake London and Penn State’s Jahan Dotson on the board at No. 22. Orr went with Burks.

“I was told to watch for the edge position here, but Treylon Burks being available changes everything (in this world that I, alone, have created),” Orr wrote. “The Burks–Deebo Samuel comparison checks out on film, and the Packers’ offensive coaches are uniquely informed in the nuances of Kyle Shanahan’s system and how they might be able to set Burks up for yards after the catch situations. In losing Davante Adams, the Packers also lost the ability to create efficient, short-yardage gains in the passing game with mechanical regularity. Perhaps Burks is the answer there, while also alleviating some of the pressure on Green Bay’s running game.”

Burks had a predraft visit with the Packers last week.

After a fabulous final season at Arkansas, Burks was considered one of the top receiver prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft. Then came the Scouting Combine. He posted a mediocre 40-yard time of 4.55 seconds. A poor 20-yard shuttle of 4.4 seconds. A below-average 33-inch vertical jump. His 5.83 Relative Athletic Score, a 0-to-10 measurement of a player’s height/weight/athleticism, spoke to a ho-hum athletic profile not really matching a first-round pick.

“All I can say is go watch film and see if I've been caught with that 40 time,” the hog-hunting, touchdown-scoring, tackle-breaking Burks said at pro day.

The Packers at No. 28 got that aforementioned edge rusher. Of the Big Ten quartet of Purdue’s George Karlaftis, Minnesota’s Boye Mafe, Michigan’s David Ojabo and Penn State’s Arnold Ebiketie, three of the four were available at Green Bay’s spot. And Orr grabbed one of those players.

CLICK HERE for the full first-round mock.

14 Players Who Could Be First-Round Picks for Packers

In the opinions of NFL scouts, these players could be on the board at No. 22 and No. 28.

Receiver (3)

Arkansas’ Treylon Burks, Georgia’s George Pickens, Penn State’s Jahan Dotson

Two receivers who consistently fall into Green Bay’s range in mock drafts are USC’s Drake London and Ohio State’s Chris Olave. That’s not happening, though, three scouts agreed. The physical Burks, rangy Pickens and explosive Dotson are the receivers who could be available and make the most sense.

Can Dotson line up across the formation or is he mostly a slot weapon? At 5-foot-10 5/8, that’s a legit question. If the Packers view him as mostly a slot, then he probably won’t be a consideration given the investment in veteran Randall Cobb and 2021 third-round pick Amari Rodgers.

Burks is a YAC machine who would be a great fit in Matt LaFleur’s offense. At Georgia, Pickens was compared to another former Bulldogs star, A.J. Green. He’s not as fast as Marquez Valdes-Scantling but he’s got better hands and is a better deep-ball tracker.

The wild card is North Dakota State’s Christian Watson, who has a freakish combination of height and speed. Interestingly, two of the scouts surveyed for this story said their teams didn’t consider Watson a first-round pick but believed some team would take him in the first based on traits.

Offensive line (1)

Boston College G Zion Johnson

Where will Elgton Jenkins line up once he’s healthy? Offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich was asked that question last week.

“It kind of depends. It depends on the other guys, to be honest with you,” Stenavich replied.

One way to read into that response is Jenkins will line up however the draft dictates.

The Packers have a hole at right tackle after releasing Billy Turner. The belief is the top four offensive tackles will be gone, though perhaps Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning will get close enough to No. 22 that the Packers could move up to get him with the belief that he’ll be the team’s starting right tackle for the next decade.

Otherwise, the Packers could draft Johnson, the No. 1 guard prospect in the draft and possessor or the zone-scheme athleticism they covet, and move Jenkins to right tackle. Given how much money offensive tackles make, Jenkins probably would welcome the move.

(Scouts also mentioned Texas A&M’s Kenyon Green, who started at four positions in 2021, but history suggests he will not be on the team’s board.)

Defensive line (2)

Georgia’s Devonte Wyatt, Oklahoma’s Perrion Winfrey

With the addition of Jarran Reed and the presumptive Year 2 leap forward for TJ Slaton, Green Bay is feeling pretty good about its defensive line for 2022. But Reed and Dean Lowry will be free agents next offseason, so there is a forward-thinking need.

By a 3-2 vote, scouts asked about the defensive line class said Wyatt is a slightly better player than his Georgia sidekick, Jordan Davis, but Davis is so big and so athletic that he’ll be the first defensive tackle off the board – perhaps by a considerable margin.

Wyatt and Winfrey are incredibly explosive performers in their own right. Defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery’s group includes only five players under contract. Asked what he’s looking for, he said a prospect with twitch who can help on third down. That would be Wyatt and Winfrey. Wyatt’s 10-yard time was 1.60 seconds. That’s only 0.03 slower than Burks. Winfrey was real disruptor with 5.5 sacks and 11 tackles for losses in 2021.

Outside linebacker (4)

Purdue’s George Karlaftis, Minnesota’s Boye Mafe, Michigan’s David Ojabo, Penn State’s Arnold Ebiketie

Preston Smith and Rashan Gary carried the load last season in the absence of Za’Darius Smith and any reliable depth. Smith signed with Minnesota and Whitney Mercilus retired, so there is a major need for a third outside linebacker.

Enter the Big Ten foursome. Karlaftis is the most likely to be off the board before No. 22 but scouts thought there was a decent chance all four would be available.

The wild card, obviously, is Ojabo, who suffered a torn Achilles during his pro day workout. Will he be able to play at all in 2022? Generally, you’d guess the injury would take him off the first-round board, because that’s a lot of draft capital and money to spend on someone who might not contribute as a rookie. But the Packers have two picks in the first and two more in the second, so they can perhaps afford to bet on his future. Drafting Ojabo here probably would mean drafting another outside linebacker to provide that instant depth.

Inside linebacker (2)

Georgia’s Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker

Historically, linebacker is like receiver. Every year, it’s considered a first-round possibility for the Packers and every year they pick from some other position group.

Last year, with De’Vondre Campbell earning All-Pro honors, the Packers played with two inside linebackers on about three-quarters of their defensive snaps. So, is it worth using a first-round pick on a player who might be on the field 75 percent of the time?

Dean is an undersized rocket at a 5-foot-11 with A-plus anticipation skills. If he were a couple inches taller, he’d be a sure-fire top-20 pick and probably knock off Utah’s Devin Lloyd as the top linebacker prospect. But there’s a chance he won’t even be on Green Bay’s board given its traditional distaste for undersized players. Walker is a clone of Campbell at 6-foot-4 and with 4.52 speed. He just doesn’t have the anticipation skills of Dean or Campbell.

Safety (2)

Michigan’s Daxton Hill, Georgia’s Louis Cine

With all the focus on receiver, outside linebacker and offensive tackle, safety is the real first-round wild card for three reasons.

One, if the Packers really want to use Darnell Savage in the slot, they need someone to replace him at safety. Two, and related, the Packers don’t have anyone to replace Savage at safety. Last year’s No. 3 at the position, Henry Black, wasn’t brought back. Three, Savage and Adrian Amos will be free agents next offseason and, as alluded to in point No. 2, there is no future starter waiting in the wings.

Hill is a phenomenal player with skill and experience deep and in the slot. Cine is a traditional safety with the physicality to match. Both players can run like the wind.