World’s Best Preview: They’ve been run over

First, the bad news: The Green Bay Packers’ downtrodden run defense must face indomitable running back Ezekiel Elliott on Sunday.

Second, more bad news: Without Davante Adams, the Packers might have to lean on a running game that has been surprisingly feeble.

Those are the main challenges that await for Sunday’s NFC showdown at the Dallas Cowboys.

To be sure, rushing yards for and against can be a chicken-and-egg proposition. Is a team running for a lot yards because it’s winning the game and, therefore, running the football? Is a team limiting the amount of rushing yards surrendered because the other team is trailing and forced to throw the ball?

Still, examining rushing margins can provide a valuable look at how a team is playing. Through four games, the Packers are minus-224 in rushing. Of the seven teams with the worst rushing differentials, the Packers are the only one with a winning record. The other six teams are a combined 1-22-1. Green Bay, on the other hand, has being clobbered on the ground despite leading from start to finish against Minnesota and Denver and being ahead for most of last week’s loss to Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, 11 teams are plus-100 or better in rushing margin. None of those teams has a losing record. In 2018, the Patriots (ninth in rushing margin) beat the Rams (eighth) in the Super Bowl. In 2017, the Eagles (first in rushing margin) beat the Patriots (14th) in the Super Bowl. In 2016, the Patriots (fourth in rushing margin) beat the Falcons (seventh) in the Super Bowl. In 2015, the Broncos (ninth) beat the Panthers (second) in the Super Bowl. In 2014, the Patriots (14th) beat the Seahawks (first) for the championship. And on it goes.

For Green Bay, the biggest problem coming into this game is fielding a run defense that ranks 26th in yards allowed per game (142.3) and 29th in yards allowed per carry (5.04). In Week 1, Chicago coach Matt Nagy ignored his running game. The Packers haven’t been so fortunate the last three weeks. For the first time since 2008, they’ve allowed 149-plus rushing yards in three consecutive games. Over those games, Green Bay has given up a league-worst 174.3 rushing yards per game.

“It’s always critical. It’s not something we ignore,” defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said. “There are times schematically where we’ll lean one way or lean the other way at times. But our issues were fundamental. When we went back and looked at the tape, there were some plays I know a lot of guys would want to have back, just from a technique standpoint. We weren’t good enough. That’s really been our theme this week. If you want to stop the run, there’s no secret about it, it is basics. ‘I have to recognize the formation, gather that info,’ but then it’s, ‘I have to win my one-on-one. I have to knock the guy back across from me. I have to locate the ball and separate from the block.’ The thing we stress, you’re going to get blocked; the key is don’t stay blocked. Our guys have to realize that internal clock of when to separate needs to get sped up a little bit.”

To slow Elliott, the defense must stay in its gaps and defeat the blocks. It’s possible – New Orleans held Elliott to less than 2.0 yards per carry last week – but it’s easier said than done against Dallas’ star-studded offensive line.

Since entering the NFL as the fourth overall pick in 2016, Elliott leads the NFL in rushing by more than 700 yards. In each of his first three seasons, he led the league in rushing yards per game. Last year, he won his second NFL rushing crown in three seasons.

At 6-foot and 228 pounds, Elliott brings the thunder to move the pile and consistently turn a run that’s blocked for 2 yards into a gain of 4 or 5. He’s also got the speed to make splash plays. In his three-plus seasons, he has 120 rushes of 10-plus yards – a whopping 21 more than any other back.

On the other side of the coin, Green Bay’s running game has underachieved. During his first two seasons, Aaron Jones led the NFL with 5.5 yards per carry. This season, he’s averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. Without Adams, the pressure will be on Jones. Some explosive runs would help. Last year, he was third in the NFL with a 10-yard run rate of 16.5 percent. This year, he has three runs of 10-plus yards in 59 attempts – 5.1 percent.

It’s not just the big runs. The Packers have been poor on third down in all regards, ranking 27th overall, but especially terrible on third-and-long. They’ve moved the chains just 11.8 percent of the time on third-and-10 or longer. A big part of that is the Packers have lost yardage on 16 runs – tied for the sixth-most in the league – after having a league-low 37 negative-yardage runs last year. A steady does of 3- and 4-yard runs will make life easier for Aaron Rodgers and the passing game.

“I put a lot on myself. I’ve definitely got to step up,” Jones said. “That’s something I told myself and not putting any added pressure on myself, but that’s something I know I’ve got to do if I want to help us win. Got to do the little extra and get my guys Dex(ter Williams) and Danny (Vitale) to all step it up. It’s going to be a team effort. It’s not just going to be one person.”

In three career games against the Packers (including the 2016 playoffs), Elliott has carried the ball 79 times for 398 yards and zero touchdowns. He’s broken through the 100-yard battle in each game. In his only game against Dallas, Jones rushed 19 times for 125 yard (6.6 average) and one touchdown.

“I definitely think I can go toe to toe with him,” Jones said. “I feel like that’s something I did a couple of years back in Dallas when not a lot of people knew me. That was my first start. I definitely think I can go toe to toe. I’m excited to be in the same stadium and to compete against him.”

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