World’s Best Preview: Third down drives offense from bad to worse

The Green Bay Packers’ offense had gone off a cliff and the season had gone off the rails. On the afternoon of Dec. 2, the Packers were stunned by the worst team in the NFL. Ultimately, the Arizona Cardinals would lose seven of their final eight games to finish with a league-worst 3-13 record. But on that day, they were better than the Packers.

Not long after he trudged out of the Lambeau Field media auditorium, Mike McCarthy was fired.

After the season, president Mark Murphy, general manager Brian Gutekunst and executive vice president Russ Ball cast a wide net but quickly zeroed in on Matt LaFleur to be the 13th coach in franchise history. As quarterbacks coach in Atlanta, LaFleur helped veteran Matt Ryan win MVP. As offensive coordinator in Los Angeles, he helped Jared Goff and the Rams go from worst to first in the NFL in scoring.

Through three games of his inaugural season, LaFleur has the Packers riding high at 3-0. The other seven members of the Coaching Class of 2019 are a combined 2-18-1. Last week, LaFleur led the Packers past the Broncos; the other seven first-year coaches went a combined 0-7.

While the Packers are better, the offense almost unbelievably is worse.

In 2018, the Packers finished 12th in total offense (369.1 yards per game), 22nd in rushing (104.2), ninth in passing (264.9), 23rd on third down (36.8 percent conversions), 13th in the red zone (61.7 percent touchdowns) and, most importantly, tied for 14th with 23.5 points per game.

Headed into Thursday’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Packers are 28th in total offense (286.7 yards per game, 24th in rushing (89.3), 27th in passing (197.3), 30th on third down (25.0 percent conversions), second in the red zone (83.3 percent touchdowns) and tied for 23rd in scoring with 19.3 points per game.

LaFleur was supposed to bring an offensive renaissance with his state-of-the-art scheme. And in time, that very well could be the case. But at the moment, Green Bay is averaging 82.4 fewer yards per game than last season. LaFleur brought a desire to run the football. That’s shown up with Green Bay going from 32nd in run percentage last year to 10th this year. But it’s averaging 14.9 fewer rushing yards per game because it’s averaging 1.57 yards less per carry. The new scheme was supposed to energize Aaron Rodgers, who needed a fresh start after spending 11 seasons as McCarthy’s starter. Rodgers indeed has been energized but the Packers are averaging 67.6 fewer passing yards per game, and Rodgers is down slightly in completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating compared to last year.

Throw all of those rotten ingredients into the stew and you get a foul-smelling dinner. Even with a turnover-producing defense, Green Bay’s scoring is down 4.2 points per game. Kansas City and Baltimore are averaging more points in the first half of their games than the Packers are scoring in the totality of their games.

“I thought we did a lot of good things the other night but it just kind of left everybody with a sour taste in their mouth,” LaFleur said on Tuesday. “There were a couple drives in the second half that didn’t go as well. The goal is to score every drive, right? And when you don’t do that, you know that there’s more out there for you. We’re not satisfied, but we’re going to keep working.”

The amount of work that needs to be done seems daunting.

The running game has been inconsistent at best and poor at worst. With the addition of Gary Kubiak to run Minnesota’s offense, the Vikings have incorporated a similar running scheme that LaFleur has installed in Green Bay. The Vikings, however, are averaging 5.64 yards per carry. Green Bay has been stuffed – a tackle at or behind the line of scrimmage vs. the run – on 12.8 percent of its carries, the sixth-highest rate in the league.

Aside from the first quarter of the Week 2 game against Minnesota, the passing game has been mostly poor. Rodgers has missed some receivers. The pass protection hasn’t always been reliable. For all the offseason talk about scheme, it’s not as if there’s a bunch of open receivers. At tight end, Jimmy Graham has played 108 snaps but caught only three passes. At receiver, Geronimo Allison is averaging 3.43 yards per target – 10th worst among receivers with at least seven targets – and has fumbled.

After each of the three games, LaFleur has lamented the team’s third-down play. Only the Dolphins, who might be the worst team in NFL history, and Jets, who are down to their third string quarterback, have been worse on third down. Of course, it’s not so much third down as it is first and second down. Rodgers is 29th in completion percentage on first down, and the Packers have gained 0 yards or worse on 18 carries on first or second down; only three teams have more impotent runs.

“The offense as a whole, where we have to improve is third down,” LaFleur said on Monday, a day after going a pitiful 2-of-9 on third down vs. Denver. “It’s not been nowhere near the standard that we need to abide by. A lot of that’s due to the fact that we’ve had too many third-and-longs. For whatever reason, whether it’s a penalty or we lose yardage on a play – like I talked to our guys about, we’ve got to be better in our get-back-on-track situations with some of our calls just to try to get some of that yardage back so you’re not fighting that uphill battle on third-and-10-plus.”

Third-and-long hasn’t been just uphill for the Packers. It’s been like scaling Mount Everest in an Easter Bunny costume. On third-and-10-plus, Green Bay is a woeful 1-of-16 – a conversion rate of 6.3 percent. Only four teams have had more third-and-longs and only four teams have converted less frequently. To be sure, third-and-long is no picnic for most teams, but eight teams have moved the chains at least 30 percent of the time, including the Colts at a resounding 50.0 percent.

On third-and-long, Rodgers is 6-of-11 for 70 yards with one conversion. From 2008 through 2018, the time encompassing his first 11 years as the starter, Rodgers averaged 11.4 third-and-long conversions between passes and runs to help Green Bay convert an eighth-ranked 22.0 percent of the time.

Third-and-shorter would obviously be better. The Packers have had third-and-1 to third-and-3 just four times all season – the fewest in the league. Denver, which hogged the ball for 35 minutes against Green Bay on Sunday, has had 16 plays of third-and-short.

Casting a wider net to make third-and-1 through third-and-6, Green Bay’s conversion rate of 43.8 percent ranks a woeful 27th. While Rodgers is 8-of-13 with seven conversions and a 79.0 rating in that scenario, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is 10-of-11 with 10 conversions and a 149.1 rating and New Orleans’ Drew Brees is 8-of-8 with seven conversions and a perfect 158.3 rating. Rodgers’ opponent on Thursday, Carson Wentz, is 12-of-14 with 12 conversions, three touchdowns and a 139.6 rating.

Really, there’s nothing wrong with Green Bay’s offense that can’t be solved by fixing third down. More conversions means more extended drives, which means more opportunities for LaFleur to call one play to set up another, which means more opportunities for the team’s playmakers, which, ultimately, leads to more chances to score points. It also means more time to rest for a defense that has been worn down each of the last two weeks.

“We’ve been so bad on third down we haven’t had those conversions that give us more plays,” Rodgers said. “We had 50-something plays last week. which is limiting the amount of opportunities our entire offense has. If our offense has less opportunities, there are probably going to be less opportunities for targets for Davante (Adams).”

Rodgers and Co. have spoken optimistically about the offense for months. A dominant first quarter against Minnesota, and key drives late to help clinch the wins over Minnesota and Denver, hint at the possibilities. But as Rodgers said on Sunday, it’s time for potential to become production. The Packers are 3-0 because of their defense and in spite of their offense. The playmaking, celebrating defense is one of the league’s top story lines, but Rodgers was the voice of reason on Tuesday.

“At some point,” Rodgers said, “we can’t expect our defense to shut everybody down. They have been but, at some point, the offense is going to have to wake up and start making some plays.”