Latest Playoff Standings, Probabilities for Packers After Showdown Win

Here’s a look at the NFC playoff race, including the chase for the NFC North championship and the No. 1 seed, with four games remaining in the regular season.

Green Bay Packers cornerback Bo Melton (16) celebrates a touchdown against the Chicago Bears. | Sarah Kloepping/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – It was a seismic week in the NFC playoff race for the Green Bay Packers. With their victory over the Chicago Bears on Sunday, they moved from the No. 2 team in the NFC North to the No. 2 team in the NFC.

Coach Matt LaFleur didn’t get long to celebrate.

“Not very long,” he said on Monday. “You get about the evening to soak it in, and then you come into work the next day and you’re focused on making the corrections and moving on.”

There’s no time to bask in their accomplishment, not with back-to-back road games coming up against the Denver Broncos, who lead the AFC with an 11-2 record, and a rematch against the Bears, who have proven to be a formidable foe.

Here are the latest NFC standings through Week 14. 

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Los Angeles Rams (first place, NFC West): 10-3

2. Green Bay Packers (first place, NFC North): 9-3-1

3. Philadelphia Eagles (first place, NFC East): 8-5

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (first place, NFC South): 7-6

5. Seattle Seahawks (second place, NFC West): 10-3

6. San Francisco 49ers (third place, NFC West): 9-4

7. Chicago Bears (second place, NFC North): 9-4

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8. Detroit Lions (third place, NFC North): 8-5

9. Carolina Panthers (second place, NFC South): 7-6

10. Dallas Cowboys (second place, NFC East): 6-6-1

11. Minnesota Vikings (fourth place, NFC North): 5-8

12. Atlanta Falcons (third place, NFC South): 4-9

13. Arizona Cardinals (fourth place, NFC West): 3-10

14. New Orleans Saints (fourth place, NFC South): 3-10

15. Washington Commanders (third place, NFC East): 3-10

16. New York Giants (fourth place, NFC East): 2-11

Green Bay Packers safety Javon Bullard (20) greets fans before their game against the Bears on Sunday. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Packers are in good shape to reach the playoffs, but that could change quickly. If they were to stumble in these back-to-back road games against the Broncos and Bears, they could tumble all the way out of the playoff bracket.

“That’s life in the National Football League and I think you just got to be resilient, you got to keep fighting and you got to ignore all the outside noise,” LaFleur said of how the team rebounded from losses to Carolina and Philadelphia to win four in a row.

“I really only care about what’s going on in that room with our team, with our players, within our building and all that other stuff. And we understand that’s a blessing and a curse to be a part of the National Football League in that regard. You’re going to be highly criticized and it is what it is, so the best way to not be criticized is just find a way to win.”

If The Season Were to End Today …

Two weeks ago, with Green Bay getting set to play at Detroit and Chicago headed to Philadelphia, the Packers were the sixth seed in the NFC playoffs and projected to play at the Bears.

Now, it would be the second-seeded Packers hosting the seventh-seeded Bears.

Highlighting Green Bay’s record is its 4-0 mark in the NFC North this season. It went 1-5 last season, including a home loss to the Bears.

“I just think we’ve found a way to win a lot of these tight games,” LaFleur said. “A year ago, we didn’t. A lot of times, we were digging ourselves into holes and we had to come back and we just couldn’t quite pull it off. This year there’s been a lot less of that.”

Race for No. 1 Seed

Davante Adams and the Los Angeles Rams have the best record in the NFC. | Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

The Packers are a half-game behind the Rams in the race for the No. 1 seed, which comes with a first-round bye and homefield advantage. To get the No. 1, the Packers might have to sweep their remaining games.

The No. 2 seed isn’t a bad consolation prize, though, as it would mean a chance for two home playoff games. That the Eagles lost on Monday night to the Chargers was helpful as it handed Philadelphia a fifth loss.

As it stands, the NFC West winner and the NFC North winner will land the top two seeds. The Packers are a game-and-a-half ahead of the Eagles, so there’s some wiggle room even if they were to lose to the Broncos this week but recapture the NFC North lead at Chicago the following week.

Strength of Schedule

According to Tankathon, the Packers are tied for the seventh-toughest remaining schedule, so that will complicate their path.

The slumping Colts have by far the toughest remaining schedule, with their final four teams having a combined winning percentage of .692.

Focusing only on the NFC playoff contenders, the Seahawks have the third-most difficult remaining schedule at .654, the Lions are tied with the Packers at .596 and the Bears are ninth at .567.

In the race for the NFC North title, here are the remaining schedules.

Packers: at Broncos, at Bears, home vs. Ravens, at Vikings.

Lions: at Rams, home vs. Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears.

Bears: home vs. Browns, home vs. Packers, at 49ers, home vs. Lions.

The Rams, who are leading the race for the No. 1 seed, are tied for 17th at .481 but have two challenging games remaining. They will host the Lions, play at the Seahawks and Falcons, and host the Cardinals.

The Packers, by the way, are 2.5-point favorites to beat the Broncos at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Packers Playoff Chances

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Packers have a 94.3 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs. That was a slight jump from 92.0 percent from last week.

The Packers have made a huge move in the NFC North, going from 44.8 percent before beating Detroit and 57.5 percent from before beating Chicago to 69.9 percent. The Bears went from 35.0 percent to 20.8 percent and the Lions inched up from 5.5 percent to 9.3 percent.

According to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, Green Bay’s playoff probability based on 100,000 simulations is 95 percent. That’s up from 93 percent last week. With a win over the Broncos, it would rise to greater than 99 percent. With a loss, it would decline to 92 percent.

Its odds to win the NFC North are 68 percent, including 10 percent to earn the No. 1 seed.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers improved to a 94 percent probability to qualify for the playoffs, up from 44 percent two weeks ago. In the NFC North, the Bears are 65 percent and the Lions are 51 percent.

According to Playoff Status, Green Bay’s playoff chances improved from 82 percent to 94 percent. To win the North, the Packers went from 34 percent to 53 percent while the Bears fell from 62 percent to 44 percent.

At Pro Football Focus, the Packers have a 94.0 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. They have a 23.0 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl and 11.7 percent chance of winning it.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers’ playoff odds made a huge shift. After being -350 before beating Detroit and -900 after beating Detroit, they’re -3000 after beating Chicago. By implied probability, that’s 96.8 percent.

In the NFC North odds at FanDuel, the odds have gone from Green Bay at -130, Chicago at +140 and Detroit at +1000 to Green Bay at -240, Chicago at +270 and Detroit still at +1000. By implied probability, that’s 70.6 percent.

To earn the No. 1 seed, the Rams are +100, the Seahawks are +210 and the Packers are +600.

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