Latest NFC Playoff Standings, Probabilities After Packers’ Loss at Broncos

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers suffered a devastating loss to the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Not only did the Packers lose superstar defensive end Micah Parsons, they fell from first place in the NFC North and in the mix for the No. 1 seed to second place in the NFC North and all the way to the No. 7 seed.

Here are the latest NFC standings through Week 15.

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Los Angeles Rams (first place, NFC West): 12-3

2. Chicago Bears (first place, NFC North): 10-4

3. Philadelphia Eagles (first place, NFC East): 9-5

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (first place, NFC South): 7-7

5. Seattle Seahawks (second place, NFC West): 11-3

6. San Francisco 49ers (third place, NFC West): 10-4

7. Green Bay Packers (second place, NFC North): 9-4-1

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8. Detroit Lions (third place, NFC North): 8-6

9. Carolina Panthers (second place, NFC South): 7-7

10. Dallas Cowboys (second place, NFC East): 6-7-1

11. Minnesota Vikings (fourth place, NFC North): 6-8

12. Atlanta Falcons (third place, NFC South): 5-9

13. New Orleans Saints (fourth place, NFC South): 4-10

14. Washington Commanders (third place, NFC East): 4-10

15. Arizona Cardinals (fourth place, NFC West): 3-11

16. New York Giants (fourth place, NFC East): 2-12

“The season ain’t over,” safety Xavier McKinney said. “So, sh**, we’ve still got work to do. Obviously, with this loss, it puts us in a different spot, but we’ve still got a chance to do what we want to do – win the division and make a big run in the playoffs.

“So, yeah, obviously, guys got hurt today but that don’t mean the season’s just over. We’ve just got to keep working, keep finding ways where we can get better, we’ve got to try to be as healthy as possible and that’s just what it is.”

If The Season Were to End Today …

The Packers will have their rematch against the Bears on Saturday night. It’s possible there will be a third matchup in the wild-card round of the playoffs.

As it stands, Chicago is back on top of the North and is the No. 2 seed while Green Bay is the No. 7 seed.

“I think there’s still so much more out in front of us that it’s just that mindset where we just got to stay together and go into this next week – big game against Bears in Chicago,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “So, everybody will be ready for that, but we’ve just got to get back to work and prepare this week and get our bodies back.

“But we’ve been here before in these tough games, we’ve just got to stay together and keep going.”

Race for No. 1 Seed

The Packers’ hopes of getting the No. 1 seed are probably dead. The NFC West-leading Rams beat the Lions to improve to 11-3 and stay in the top spot in the NFC. The problem for Green Bay is the other top team in the NFC West, the Seahawks, also improved to 11-3 by outlasting Philip Rivers and the Colts.

Strength of Schedule

According to Tankathon, the Packers have the 12th-toughest remaining schedule. Their final three opponents, at Chicago next week, home against Baltimore in Week 17 and at Minnesota in Week 18, have a combined winning percentage of .548.

Focusing on the top NFC contenders, the 49ers are tied with the Colts for the toughest remaining schedule at .690. The Seahawks are fourth at .667, the Bears are fifth at .655 and the Lions are 11th at .561.

The Rams are 21st at .452.

In the race for the NFC North title, here are the remaining schedules.

Packers: at Bears, home vs. Ravens, at Vikings.

Lions: home vs. Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears.

Bears: home vs. Packers, at 49ers, home vs. Lions.

The Packers, by the way, remain 2.5-point favorites to beat the Bears next week at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Packers Playoff Chances

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Packers have an 89.8 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, down from 94.3 percent last week.

While they fell behind the Bears in the standings, they have a 52.9 percent chance of winning the NFC North, ahead of the Bears (40.4 percent) and Lions (6.7 percent). Before Sunday, the Packers had a 69.9 percent probability of winning the division.

According to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, Green Bay’s playoff probability based on 100,000 simulations fell from 95 percent to 92 percent. Its odds to win the NFC North plunged from 68 percent to 48 percent. It has a less than 1 percent chance to earn homefield.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers’ playoff chances went from 84 percent to 88 percent. That’s still the best number in the NFC North, with the Bears at 74 percent (from 65 percent) and the Lions at 41 percent (from 51 percent).

According to Playoff Status, Green Bay’s playoff chances slipped just a little from 94 percent to 93 percent. To win the NFC North, the Packers went from 53 percent to 40 percent while the Bears went from 44 percent to 57 percent.

Packers Playoff Odds

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers’ playoff odds were -3000 after beating Chicago. Now, they’re -1150. While that seems like a big change, by implied probability, the Packers went from 96.8 percent to 92.0 percent.

In the NFC North odds at FanDuel, the Packers remain favorites. The Packers are -110 to win the division, the Bears are +110 and the Lions are +1200. Last week, Green Bay was -240, Chicago was +270 and Detroit was +1000. By implied probability, that’s 70.6 percent.

To earn the No. 1 seed, the Rams are -165, the Seahawks are +230, the 49ers are +700, the Bears are +1600 and the Packers are +12500. By implied probability, that’s a 0.79 percent chance.

The injury to Parsons was a season-changer. Combined with injuries to Christian Watson and Zach Tom, the Packers’ championship hopes suffered a major blow.

McKinney, however, believes the Packers can be a Super Bowl team. Why?

“Because we’ve got good players,” he said. “Obviously, it’s a big loss, but we’ve got good players.”

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