Three Keys for Packers Beating Bears in Wild Card Game

The Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) will head to Soldier Field once again to take on the Chicago Bears (11-6) in the NFC wild card playoffs. Here are three keys to a Packers victory as the slates are wiped clean and everyone begins their run to the Super Bowl.

Chicago Bears running back Kyle Monangai (25) gestures toward the Green Bay Packers bench during their Week 16 game. | Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

The Green Bay Packers ended the regular season spiraling with a four-game losing streak and will not be playing a game at Lambeau Field in their push for the Lombardi Trophy. 

The Packers will open the playoffs with a rematch at the Chicago Bears, who lost at home to the Detroit Lions on Sunday but got the No. 2 seed, anyway, because the Philadelphia Eagles lost at home to the Washington Commanders.

“Hell, yeah, we want Chicago. We want Chicago,” defensive back Javon Bullard said when asked specifically if he wanted another shot at the Bears. “We want anybody that want us. Sh**, we want them all.”

Here are three keys for the Packers as they face off against the Bears for the third time in six weeks and for the third time in the playoffs.

1. Contain the Run, and the Scramble 

Under rookie coach Ben Johnson, the Bears have established themselves as one of the top running teams in the NFL with the third-most rushing yards per game. Behind the consistent excellence of D’Andre Swift, the second-half explosion from Kyle Monongai, the slippery elusiveness of quarterback Caleb Williams and the power of their offensive line, the Bears are a force on the ground. 

While it was not perfect, the Packers didn’t let the Bears run all over them in their first matchup of the regular season. Swift and Monongai were riding high coming into Lambeau, fresh off a game in which they combined for 255 rushing yards against the Eagles. The Packers, though, held them both to less than 5 yards per carry. Notably, Williams was held to 3.8 yards per carry, although he was still able to extend plays with his legs and make throws on the run. 

While both running backs were unable to shred the Packers’ defense in their second matchup, Williams’ rushing ability did. He was a walking first down, averaging 10.0 yards per carry on three scrambles. 

One thing the Packers did well in both games was match the Bears’ rushing attack with their own. Josh Jacobs ended the first matchup with 86 yards and a touchdown. In the rematch in Chicago, Malik Willis, having to fill in for Jordan Love, unlocked a scrambling quarterback style similar to the Bears that the Packers could utilize, and it resulted in 192 rushing yards as a team. 

While the Bears’ run game is dangerous with their duo of explosive and physical running backs, it all comes down to keeping Williams contained. He has proven to be too elusive for the Packers’ defensive front, only taking one sack across both games, and his ability to extend plays and find receivers downfield has proven to be too much for the Packers’ secondary. If he is allowed to escape the pocket at will, the Packers’ season could end quickly. 

2. Prevent Turnovers, Force Turnovers 

While key injuries have been the big story toward the end of the regular season for the Packers, the lack of takeaways, and an inability to force any of their own, are part of what fueled the Packers’ four-game skid to close the season. 

A forced fumble in the season finale saved the Packers’ defense and put them in the positive, ending the season with a turnover differential of plus-1, but the story over their three prior losses was a lot worse. 

Against the Broncos, Bears and Ravens, the Packers threw three interceptions and lost two fumbles while only forcing one fumble of their own, leading to a turnover differential of minus-4 during those losses. 

Green Bay Packers defensive end Barryn Sorrell (99) recovers a fumble by Minnesota Vikings quarterback Max Brosmer. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Packers had been one of the better teams in the league when it came to preventing turnovers ahead of their losing streak. Jordan Love had only thrown four interceptions and the Packers had only lost two fumbles. If they can return to form for the playoffs, they have a much better chance at beating the turnover-hungry Bears.

One thing the Packers struggled with all season was forcing turnovers. They have one of the lowest totals in the league with just 14. A game-sealing interception by Keisean Nixon was the nail in the coffin when these two teams matched up the first time. They might need another big play or two from the defense to beat them again.

Preventing turnovers against the Bears has been a struggle for teams all season. They ended up with 32 takeaways, leading the league with a plus-22 turnover differential and 22 interceptions. Their impressive interception total and low turnover number from their own offense means they would still be fourth in the league in turnover differential even if they had not forced a single fumble all year. 

Safety Kevin Byard III led the NFL with interceptions, but it was newcomer Nahshon Wright that stole the show with five interceptions, two forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries. 

3. Score Early and Often 

One thing that the Bears have proven time and time again is that a lead is never safe against them. Whether it be a one- or two-score game, they have come back and won against difficult odds all season. They almost did it again on Sunday, rallying from a 16-0 deficit in the fourth quarter before losing on a walk-off field goal.

The Bears showed the Packers that they wouldn’t go quietly in their second matchup, coming back from a 10-point deficit with less than 5 minutes in regulation to win in overtime. They almost did the same thing the next week against the 49ers but were unable to complete the comeback, despite having the ball in the red zone down by four points with less than 30 seconds remaining. 

Chicago’s defense has been saved by takeaways all season and is vulnerable if the Packers can protect the ball. They’ll have to do better in the red zone, where they went 0-for-5 in Week 16, to build a lead too big to lose.

If the Packers offense, which should be mostly healthy after using Week 18 as a rest week, can jump on the Bears offense early, they may be able to resist Cardiac Caleb and the Bears when they come alive in the second half. 

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