Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Ravens With Malik Willis

GREEN BAY, Wis. – After the Green Bay Packers coughed up a win at Chicago, Christmas came early when the Lions lost at home to the Steelers. Then, on Christmas, the Lions lost at the Vikings. Just like that, the Packers went from having to earn their way into the playoffs to having it gift-wrapped.

Now, two days after Christmas, the Packers will get another gift when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday night. Lamar Jackson, a two-time NFL MVP who arguably should have won it again last season, is not expected to play due to a back injury.

That’s one of three reasons why the Packers, who have lost two in a row, will earn a bounce-back victory against the Ravens, who have lost three of their last four and are clinging to their playoff lives.

1. Lamar Jackson Isn’t Playing (Probably)

With Lamar Jackson doubtful, the Packers presumably will go against Tyler Huntley.

Huntley is a capable backup, and the Packers are treating him as such. But there’s no pretending there isn’t an enormous gulf between the two.

“I don’t want to take anything away from Lamar and say it’s just going to be the same thing” from a scheme perspective, Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said on Wednesday. “I have a ton of respect for him and what he’s done in this league and how dynamic he is. I don’t want to say, ‘No, it’s just the same thing no matter who plays quarterback,’ because I think that’s unfair to Lamar and what he’s done in this league and how dynamic he is.

“As far as scheme, I don’t think the scheme will change very much. Certainly, they might have wrinkles in what Huntley is more comfortable in doing just like any other coach would do with his player. But if you go back and watch the games he’s played in, it’s similar. He can run the ball, he can throw the ball, he moves well in the pocket, he can escape coverages, he can scramble, he’s a good athlete who’s been in the league for quite a while.”

Huntley has played in four games with one start this season. He’s been effective with a 76.6 percent completion rate and a 101.3 passer rating. Coming off the bench against the Patriots last week, he was 9-of-10 for 65 yards.

The Packers have some familiarity. In 2021, Huntley made his second career start. He completed 28-of-40 passes (70.0 percent) with two touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 99.5 passer rating. The Ravens were a failed two-point play away from upsetting the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley (2) passes during the game against the Green Bay Packers in 2021. | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The Ravens are 4-6 when Huntley has started games. That includes Week 8 of this season, when they beat the Bears 30-16 in Baltimore. Huntley was 17-of-22 passing for 186 yards and one touchdown and added eight carries for 53 yards.

But Jackson is a one-of-one player. He is 76-30 as a starter. Last year, he led the NFL in passer rating and yards per carry. In NFL history, he’s second in passer rating and third in yards per rushing attempt.

“Just being here every week and working gives us the best opportunity to be prepared,” Huntley told reporters this week. “Just going through the ups and downs of the season, that's preparing us to get ready for this game, so we just have to come put it all together and then make it happen.”

One noteworthy extra point: Huntley is a capable runner but the Packers have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks.

2. Malik Willis Is Playing

If the matchup were Lamar Jackson vs. Jordan Love, the career accolades and startling athletic ability would give the advantage to Jackson. Instead, the matchup will be Tyler Huntley vs. Malik Willis. The advantage goes to Willis.

Since being acquired for the bargain-basement price of a seventh-round draft pick at the end of training camp last year, Malik Willis is one of 61 quarterbacks to throw at least 68 passes. From that small sample size, Willis is:

No. 1 with a 132.2 passer rating (Jackson is second at 112.8).

No. 1 with a 76.5 completion percentage (Tua Tagovailoa is second at 70.4).

No. 1 with 10.1 yards per attempt (Jackson is second at 8.6).

No. 2 with a 7.4 touchdown percentage (Jackson is first at 7.8) and first with a 0.0 interception percentage. He’s thrown five touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Unless his right shoulder is bothering him after being crunched at the end of regulation against Chicago, there’s no reason whatsoever to believe Willis won’t make enough plays against the NFL’s 27th-ranked pass defense to win the game.

“They run the same offense [with] both quarterbacks,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh told reporters on Thursday. “So, that's where we're kind of working, but we understand the way Malik plays; we understand the way [Jordan] Love plays. So, with that in mind, our guys, whichever quarterback's out there, we'll know who the quarterback is and how they play.

“But Malik has done a great job. I think he's had a good year when he's played. He's very elusive back there. He throws a good ball. His timing and his mechanics have really looked good this year. So, he's obviously a very dangerous quarterback. He looked good in this last game when he played. So, we'll be very much very respectful of him or whoever's back there playing quarterback.”

With his full complement of receivers, Willis will attack a Ravens defense that just gave up 380 passing yards to Patriots quarterback Drake Maye.

“This position is about decision-making,” Willis said. “All the cool stuff – you see guys with really strong arms, guys who are really athletic – (but) the main thing is just being a great decision-maker and making sure, when it’s not the perfect play, that you don’t make it a disastrous play. I think that’s where I’ve grown most from being a young quarterback in this league and to this point now.”

3. Sacks of Giveaways

Something’s got to give this week.

Takeaways can be fleeting, which should be a word of warning to the Bears’ long-term prospects, by the way. Last year, the Packers finished fourth with 31. Entering Saturday, they are tied for 25th with 13.

Green Bay Packers safety Xavier McKinney (29) deflects a pass intended for Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

While the Packers have been bad at taking away the football, the Ravens have been worse at taking care of it. Only two teams have more giveaways than the Ravens’ 22. That includes 12 lost fumbles, which is tied for the most in the NFL.

Can the Packers take advantage, of course, is the major question. Goodness knows they’ve had their opportunities. According to Sports Info Solutions, Xavier McKinney has dropped a league-high four interceptions. Cornerback Carrington Valentine is tied for second with three.

Meanwhile, on defense, the Ravens are 31st in sack percentage, which has played a role in them ranking 27th against the pass. They do have seven sacks the last two games, though. On offense, the Ravens are 29th in sack percentage allowed, which has played a role in ranking 24th in interception percentage.

Turnovers, as always, will be key. When the Packers win the turnover battle, they are 5-0. When they lose it, like they did at Denver and Chicago, they are 1-4-1. When the Ravens win the turnover battle, they are 6-0. When they lose it, they are 2-7.

In light of a second consecutive zero-takeaway game, Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said: “We’ve certainly got to do a better job than we did last week attacking the ball.”

Part 1 of 2: Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose to the Ravens tonight, including one of Jeff Hafley's former pupils at Boston College.⬇️https://t.co/WLBUxYUGR6
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 27, 2025

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1. Lamar Jackson Isn’t Playing (Probably)

2. Malik Willis Is Playing

3. Sacks of Giveaways

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