Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose Playoff Game at Bears

The Green Bay Packers will play at the Chicago Bears in an NFC wild-card game on Saturday. Here are three reasons why the Packers will fall short of the Super Bowl for the 15th consecutive year.

Chicago Bears running back Kyle Monangai (25) runs the ball against the Green Bay Packers in Week 16. | Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers haven’t gotten to or won the Super Bowl since 2010, when they beat the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship Game. Here’s why the Packers will lose to the Bears in Saturday’s NFC wild-card game, extending their championship drought to 15 years.

1. Bears Will Run Over Packers

The Bears had a brilliant offseason. It started with hiring Ben Johnson as coach and continued with an extreme makeover of their offensive line. With trades for perennial All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney and veteran starting right guard Jonah Jackson and the wise signing of free-agent center Drew Dalman, the Bears turned a major weakness into a powerful strength.

Meanwhile, while nobody can dispute the impact of the Micah Parsons trade, it left the Packers undermanned – and, more importantly, underpowered – at defensive tackle.

Since Devonte Wyatt’s season-ending injury, Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks have been OK as the starting tandem, but the Packers have been relying on late-round draft picks (sixth-round rookie Warren Brinson), undrafted rookies (Nazir Stackhouse) and shots in the dark (Jordon Riley, Quinton Bohanna and, now, former Packers draft pick Jonathan Ford).

Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift finds a hole during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field. | Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

The Packers finished 18th in rushing yards allowed per game (117.7) and 12th in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.20), but the recent games tell a different story. The last three games – at Chicago in Week 16, home against Baltimore in Week 17 and Week 18 at Minnesota – have been a horror show.

During that span, Green Bay is last in rushing defense, its 198.0 yards allowed per game being 26.7 yards worse than the next team, which happens to be Chicago. It’s 28th with 5.4 yards allowed per carry.

Now, there are a couple obvious asterisks. One, the Ravens ran for 307 yards, which might be just a one-game blip on the radar. Two, the Vikings ran for 137 yards against Green Bay’s backups.

It’s not just that Green Bay’s defensive front has been pushed around. The defense has been bled for yards. According to Pro Football Focus, the Packers allowed 3.8 yards after contact per carry the last three games compared to 2.5 to start the season.

Again, maybe that was just an outlier against Baltimore and maybe fresh legs and a more determined outlook will solve the issue.

“Pad level,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said of limiting those after-contact yards. “Get low, get off blocks, put your shoulder pad through a guy’s sternum, wrap up and run your feet and get multiple people to the ball. That’s what we’re going to have to do.

“The one thing I’ll say if we’ve played them really physical – like really physical – the last two times, and it needs to take a step up and that’s what I would anticipate with these guys.”

While that’s true, the Bears still ran the ball for 288 yards in the two matchups. Really, they have run the ball on just about everyone throughout the season, with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai combining for 1,870 rushingn yards. On a night in which weather could be an issue, whether it’s wind or precipitation, Johnson might be more inclined to stick with the run and press the advantage.

“I think we played the run pretty well for a majority of the year,” Hafley said. “Obviously, we talked about the Baltimore game. It starts with lining up and doing our jobs consistently, which we failed to do that night, but I’m excited to get another shot at Chicago and do it.

“They have a very explosive run group with Monangai and Swift and the quarterback, obviously, can run the ball. I think their O-line’s really good and they’re one of the best run offenses in the NFL. So, we’re going to have to show it but I don’t want to talk about it, I want to go do it. And that’s been our whole mentality for the week.”

2. Statistical Stumbling Blocks

The power of Chicago’s rushing attack isn’t the only potential thorn in Green Bay’s side.

First, it’s turnovers. The Bears not only led the NFL with 33 takeaways, including a league-high 22 interceptions, they also had the fewest takeaways with 11.

Added together, the Bears finished plus-22. Houston was second at plus-17.

Green Bay is way down the list at plus-1. The Packers were plus-46 during the first six seasons of the Matt LaFleur era, including plus-12 last season. They forced only 14 turnovers this year; only three teams forced fewer. At least they took care of the ball, finishing third with only 13 giveaways, though they had six during the four-game stretch of Chicago, Denver, Chicago and Baltimore.

Quarterback Jordan Love had an excellent season with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. While he had the fifth-lowest interception percentage, he had the ninth-most fumbles with seven, though he lost only two.

“I think they’ve got some good ballhawks over there at DB,” Love said. “I think guys that are making plays when the ball’s in the air. They break on routes, they do a good job just understanding what offense is trying to do. And I think the way they tackle and try and rip the ball out and force those fumbles, I think it’s just something that they probably harp on a good amount as a team and as a defense, and you see it with their play style. They’re always attacking the ball.”

The second is the red zone. Green Bay was at the top of the league for most of the season before falling apart, tumbling down a cliff and landing in an incinerator. The Packers finished 14th in the red zone with a touchdown rate of 57.6 percent. However, during the last four games, they were a woeful 1-of-12.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) almost loses the ball against the Chicago Bears. | Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

Green Bay failed to score a touchdown on 15 red-zone possessions in the first 13 games but on 11 during their final four. That includes 0-for-5 in the overtime loss at Chicago, with one of those failures being Josh Jacobs’ game-changing fumble.

“Definitely executing, starting fast, converting on third downs,” will be the key, Jacobs said, “but really the biggest thing I would say, especially in our last matchup with them is just, when we get in the red zone, just making sure we get points. Limiting our turnovers and making sure we get points.”

Offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich called it the team’s “Achilles heel.” How can they get back on track at the perfect time?

“Just lean on what you’re good at down there. That’s what you’ve got to do,” he said. “The biggest thing is not panic – trust who you are and just go make plays. I think the biggest thing, the struggles we had, particularly against the Bears, we had the turnover, we had a couple penalties and just lack of execution down there. The closer you get to the end zone, you’ve got to make sure your execution is on point. So, we’ve got to do a better job down there.”

Chicago was a mediocre 15th in red-zone defense and was 10th in goal-to-go situations. The last three games, they gave up 0-for-5 against Green Bay, 5-of-5 against San Francisco and 1-of-4 against Detroit.

3. Packers Are Out of Gas

It goes without saying that the torn ACLs sustained by tight end Tucker Kraft and defensive end Micah Parsons were season-changing injuries.

If Kraft were healthy, maybe the offense would be so good that it could just outscore teams without Parsons. If Parsons were healthy, maybe the defense would be so good that it could continually shut down opponents.

But arguably the team’s best player on offense and its clear-cut best player on defense are out, and the results are unmistakable.

The Packers haven’t won since Parsons was injured. They haven’t stopped anyone in a game that mattered, either.

Packers defense since losing Micah Parsons in Week 15…

🔸0-4 W-L (T-last)
🔸28.3 PPG allowed (25th)
🔸392.0 total YPG allowed (30th)
🔸170.8 rush YPG allowed (last)
🔸3 sacks (last)
🔸7.9% 3 & out rate (30th)

Cowboys defense since trading Micah Parsons in August…

🔹30.1 PPG…

— NFL Researcher (@NFL_Researcher) January 9, 2026

The Packers have lost four in a row. And while the fourth of those losses is as irrelevant as finding a penny near a urinal, there’s no hiding from blowing the lead at Denver, blowing the lead at Chicago and getting smashed to bits by Baltimore.

The Packers are confident, as they should be. For all their sins against Chicago a few weeks ago, the game was theirs for the taking.

“Even the games that we lost, it was games where they could have literally went either way, especially with a lot of things that we did to hurt ourselves and mistakes we made,” Jacobs said. 

“I think that that’s the reason why we have confidence that if we clean that up and we just play a clean game of football and really not even have to do anything too special, that we can win a lot of games in this league. So, I think that’s where the confidence comes from. And also, we know what it looks like when we hitting on all cylinders.”

Teams that are too inconsistent don’t magically find consistency in the playoffs. The Packers are like a racecar with a flat tire and leaky gas tank. Instead of firing on all cylinders, they’re headed to the ditch that is the NFL offseason and about to get passed by the hated Bears.

SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE DAILY PACKERS NEWSLETTER