Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose Trap Game Against Panthers

The Green Bay Packers are coming off a big win at the Steelers and have a big game coming against the Eagles. Here are three reasons why they could get upset by the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.

Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, pictured during the 2023 game against Green Bay, will power the Panthers' ground game. | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The dreaded trap game.

With the Green Bay Packers coming off a big win against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers and potentially peeking ahead to next Monday’s showdown against the Super Bowl-champion Eagles, could Matt LaFleur’s squad be looking past the Carolina Panthers on Sunday?

This season, after two tremendous games to start the year, the Packers were upset at Cleveland before a primetime game in Dallas. Last season, though, they won both games before facing the Lions and routed the woeful Saints before a big road game at the Vikings.

Trap or no trap, here are three reasons why the Packers could lose to the Panthers at Lambeau Field.

1. Kickoffs

Green Bay’s special teams haven’t been special in years. Last week against Pittsburgh, kicker Brandon McManus missed two field goals and Keisean Nixon muffed a punt.

The return units have been problematic all season. Green Bay enters Week 9 ranked 25th in starting field position after a kickoff return and last in punt-return average.

This week, the challenge will be dealing with rookie Ryan Fitzgerald’s kickoffs. Carolina is No. 1 in opponent starting field position after a kickoff.

“They have really good coverage players, but the kicker’s done a tremendous job with what everybody’s calling those dirty kicks and the ability to put it on the ground, the ability to put it in the corners, so that’s been the challenge for everyone that’s played against them and it’ll certainly be a challenge for us,” Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia said.

“When that ball hits the ground as a football, it can go anywhere, and that’s what it’s doing if you look at the film. So, the biggest challenge will be fielding the ball cleanly so we can at least get started, because when the ball hits the ground, it’s definitely an advantage for the kickoff team. If you muff it at all or can’t get a clean catch on it, it certainly gives them the advantage.”

While Carolina’s kickoff coverage has been tremendous, its punt coverage has been terrible. Can the Packers avoid disaster on kickoff return? Can they take advantage on punt return? Those are key questions in terms of field position and the next segment of this preview.

2. Carolina’s Defense Is Legit

The Panthers’ defense is good. They’re giving up only 310 yards per game. Through the air, they are 11th in opponent passer rating. That includes ranking sixth in road games, where standout cornerback Jaycee Horn has all three of his interceptions.

Last week, the Bills routed the Panthers 40-9, with running back James Cook blowing past 200 rushing yards. However, that’s the outlier. In Week 5 against the Dolphins, Carolina gave up 19 yards on 14 carries. In Week 6 against the Cowboys, it gave up 31 yards on 19 carries. In Week 7 against the Jets, it gave up 81 yards on 20 carries.

Those are premier rushing attacks, with Miami’s Devon Achane ranking sixth in rushing, Dallas’ Javonte Williams ranking fourth and New York’s Breece Hall ranking eighth.

Can the Green Bay Packers get running back Josh Jacobs rolling on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers? | Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

“We certainly didn't do a good enough job of coaching, of playing,” Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero told reporters this week.

Green Bay does not have a premier rushing attack. It did last season, but it’s been a slog this year, as it ranks 24th with 3.94 yards per carry. Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs ranks 39th out of 46 qualifying players with 3.60 yards per carry.

“They’re pretty good, man,” running back Josh Jacobs said. “People keep talking about how they gave up a lot of rushing yards to a couple teams, but if you actually watch the film, those are just a couple splash, explosive plays that those guys had.

“Overall, really, they’ve been playing pretty good. They’re pretty stout. A younger team, defense, so sometimes they might not always be in the right spots but they play hard. They play the game the right way. It’s definitely not a defense that we’re going to take lightly.”

Between blown blocks and missed assignments, Jacobs hasn’t had a prayer on many of his carries. Green Bay is averaging 2.0 yards before contact, which is fourth-worst in the NFL, according to Stathead.

“They’ve got their five-across fronts up front and just try to stuff the ball inside,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said of Carolina’s approach. “I think Derek Brown’s playing really well, and they have some other interior players that are pretty good. They do a pretty good job of clogging up the inside, so it’s going to be another good test for us this week handling that defense and just taking a step forward with us as an offense.”

If Carolina can stop the run, it will have a fighting chance against Love and his deep group of targets.

3. Potential Weakness?

Green Bay enters this game ranked fourth with 3.73 yards allowed per rushing attempt. If that stands, that would be its best since 2009.

However, there have been some signs of relative weakness, including the Steelers averaging 5.2 yards per carry last week. The only person to stop Pittsburgh’s running game was the play-caller, with the Steelers running it just three times in the second half of a game it led at halftime.

In the first two games of the season, Green Bay allowed a total of 97 rushing yards to the Lions and Commanders. They allowed 96 against the Browns, 117 against the Cowboys, 94 against the Cardinals and 93 against the Steelers.

That’s still pretty good, but Green Bay, which hasn’t faced a top-10 rushing attack since those first two games, must get back to that early-season standard. Otherwise, the Panthers – unlike the Steelers last week – will stay committed to running the ball.

When Chuba Hubbard was injured, Rico Dowdle rushed for 206 yards against Miami and 183 against the Cowboys. They split carries the last two weeks, but Dowdle should be the focal point on Sunday. He’s averaging a third-ranked 5.7 yards per carry compared to 3.6 for Hubbard.

“I’ve seen that from him,” said Packers defensive end Micah Parsons, who was teammates with Dowdle in Dallas, where he rushed for 1,079 yards last season. “He used to average 4, 5 yards a carry in Dallas; we just didn’t give it to him. It’s not a surprise the year he’s having. 

“He runs hard, he’s running with passion. What we’ve got to do is make sure he don’t keep falling forward. That’s his biggest thing – he falls forward. We’ve got to get everyone to push back, get him falling back and we can win this game.”

Parsons is right about that. Dowdle is fourth in the league with 3.81 yards per carry after contact, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s more than Josh Jacobs is averaging overall.

“The O-line’s physical, play downhill,” defensive tackle Colby Wooden – aka The General – said this week. “We know what they want to do. They want to rush. They want to get to the edge, so for us, we just got to knock it back and, especially after last week, which wasn’t our best week stopping the run (in) the first half, they have hope. So, they’re going to want to come in here and try to do that.”

Green Bay’s defense is predicated on stopping the run, forcing opponents into third-and-long and unleashing the Parsons-fueled pass rush. It could be a long day for the Packers if Dowdle is falling ahead with enough frequency to make it a third-and-short type of game.