Three Reasons Why Packers Won’t Just Lose at Vikings; They’ll Be Destroyed

The Green Bay Packers will rest most, if not all, off their starters. The Minnesota Vikings are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Here are three reasons why Packers-Vikings will turn ugly quickly.

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson caught four passes for 48 yards at Lambeau Field earlier this season. | Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – That the Green Bay Packers are unlikely to beat the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday practically goes without saying. The goals for the teams could hardly be more different. The Vikings are trying to end the regular season with a five-game winning streak. The Packers are trying to get healthy for the playoffs.

The Vikings are 8.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook, up from 7.5 following the announcement that Clayton Tune would be starting at quarterback. Somehow, the Vikings have only a 57.3 percent win probability.

In place of the usual story about three reasons why the Packers will lose, here are three reasons why the final score could be far worse than expected.

1. Clayton Tune Completely Overmatched

Clayton Tune will get the start at quarterback in place of Jordan Love, who is out of the concussion protocol, and Malik Willis, who is dealing with an injured throwing shoulder and hamstring.

Tune has made one start in his career. As a rookie fifth-round pick by the Cardinals in 2023, he started in Week 9 at Cleveland. The Cardinals lost 27-0. Tune was terrible. He was 11-of-20 passing for 58 yards. He was sacked seven times for a loss of 41 yards, meaning those 27 dropbacks produced 17 yards. He threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. The Cardinals gained seven first downs – two in the first possession and five in the final 13.

Just because Tune was bad in that game doesn’t mean he’ll be bad in this game. Willis was terrible in Tennessee but has been superb in Green Bay. Coaching and player development matter. Tune should be a better player on Sunday than he was as a rookie.

“I’m excited to get out there and get the feel of being out there, obviously being in the stadium, having command of the huddle and seeing the speed of the game,” Tune said. “Obviously in practice, you try to prepare for the game as much as you can. But once you’re in it for real, that’s when you get the full sense of it. I’m excited to be in there and trust the training I’ve put in.”

Coach Matt LaFleur loves to say that it “takes all 11” and that it’s up to the coaches to put players in the right positions to succeed.

Tune is not set up for success. He’s likely to play behind a bunch of backup offensive linemen, who presumably are lesser blockers and lack the cohesion of the No. 1 unit, and alongside a bunch of backup receivers.

On top of that, Tune didn’t even receive the full complement of reps that the starting quarterback typically gets. Part of this week has been dedicated to Jordan Love and the starters going up against the No. 1 defense to keep those units sharp for the playoffs.

That’s the right approach but, given those realities and the quality of opponent – more on that moment – Tune isn’t being set up for success.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Clayton Tune probably will be under a lot of pressure against the Vikings. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via Imagn Images

He is being set up for disaster.

“This defense has a ton of challenges. We’ve talked about that at length,” LaFleur said. “So, it’s about making sure that you have a sound scheme and a sound plan, and then you also have to take into account what these guys have time on task with. So, it is a little bit of a challenge in that regard, but we feel like we have a plan we’ve put together that will give our guys an opportunity to go out there and make some plays.”

Packers quarterbacks coach Sean Mannion knows the challenge better than anyone. In 2017, with the Rams locked into the No. 3 seed, coach Sean McVay rested key players, including quarterback Jared Goff, four starting offensive linemen, premier running back Todd Gurley and the top receivers for the finale against the 49ers.

The Rams were routed 34-13. Mannion, a third-year player then like Tune is now, was 20-of-34 passing for 169 yards.

“You think back to all your preparation, all the reps that you have banked, and you have a whole week of practice to really get yourself up to speed with the live reps, the live work,” Mannion recalled. “So, they are a good team – that’s absolutely true – but in that moment, you’re just thinking more about the process of your preparation, and you’re thinking about going out there and just operating, executing, and, frankly, just let it fly.

“It’s a great opportunity for Clayton, great opportunity to go out there against a good opponent. Like, what better chance to put some tape out there for the league and show us what he can do for our team? So, we’re excited for him.”

2. Vikings’ Defense Is Great

Making matters worse – much worse – is the quality of opponent.

The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. On Christmas, they beat the Lions 23-10. Brian Flores’ defense made four-time Pro Bowl quarterback Jared Goff look like a fool. The Vikings forced six turnovers, including five from Goff.

If the Vikings can make a top-tier quarterback look terrible, what can they do to a quarterback whose 27 career passes have resulted in three interceptions and four first downs?

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) fumbles as he is sacked by Minnesota Vikings linebacker Andrew van Ginkel (43). | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

In three seasons on the job, Flores’ defense ranks:

• No. 1 against the run (3.9 yards per carry).

• No. 5 in takeaways (76).

• No. 1 in blitzes (848).

• No. 5 in sacks (137).

• No. 6 in pressures (472).

The Vikings enter Week 18 ranked 10th in points allowed, fifth in total defense and third against the pass. They are fourth in sack percentage, fifth on third down and first in the red zone.

Goff had a mostly full-strength offense last week but went 18-of-29 for 197 yards and was sacked five times. Goff is an excellent veteran who has seen it all throughout his career. Yet it didn’t matter. He was under siege and overwhelmed.

Now, it’ll be up to LaFleur to get what essentially is a practice-squad quarterback ready.

“It all starts with a plan,” LaFleur said. “You better be well prepared for what we’re about to see because, if you’re not, it can be embarrassing in terms of how aggressive they are and what a great job they do of knowing how to attack you. I think Flores is one of the best in the business, and he is so good at what he does. I think he’s taken that defense to another level.”

3. Justin Jefferson vs. Jaylin Simpson, Etc.

In games at U.S. Bank Stadium, Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson has made the likes of in-his-prime Jaire Alexander look bad. On Sunday, Jefferson won’t be dealing with an All-Pro cornerback. He might not even be dealing with Green Bay’s mediocre starting cornerbacks.

Maybe Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine will get a few snaps, but the Packers are expected to roll with the likes of Bo Melton, who has yo-yo’d between cornerback and receiver all season, Jaylin Simpson and Shemar Bartholomew, who were signed from the practice squad this week, and Trevon Diggs, who has practiced twice with the team.

Melton, Simpson and Bartholomew have played zero snaps of defense this season – Melton and Simpson have played zero in their careers – and Diggs didn’t break up a single pass in eight games for the Cowboys and might not even know the names of the players who will be at safety.

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a pass against the Green Bay Packers in 2023. | Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

“If Bo has to go out and he does play defense in this game, I’d bet on him,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “Because what I do know he’s going to do is, he’s going to go out and compete and he is going to tackle and he is going to be physical, and if he’s got to cover one of the best in the game in Justin Jefferson, he’s not going to back down.

“And that’s why you love a guy like Bo. It’s the makeup. And you just root for guys like that.”

Jefferson hasn’t had a great season but he’s a great player. He leads the league with 8,379 receiving yards since entering the NFL in 2020. He needs 53 yards on Sunday to join Randy Moss and Mike Evans as the only players with 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first six seasons.

It goes without saying that Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell and quarterback J.J. McCarthy will want to get that done.

“I’m just going to go out there and play ball like I’ve been doing since I was 3 years old,” Simpson said. “The lights won’t be too bright for me, for sure. It means everything.”

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