Rico Dowdle Wasn't That Great and Won't Be Terribly Missed by Panthers

If only considering the depth chart, then the loss of Rico Dowdle is a big one for the Carolina Panthers. He spent more than half the season atop the depth chart, and he was their most successful running back.

On paper, a team losing its best back and replacing him with someone who averaged less than four yards per carry last year is not really ideal, especially when said team has professed to want to run the football.

And while Dowdle certainly would help this season, we have to stop pretending like he was exceptional last year or that the Panthers will really miss him. In some ways, they will miss Dowdle, but the numbers suggest that it won't be a true longing.

The Panthers won't miss Rico Dowdle as badly as it seems

Carolina Panthers running back Rico Dowdle (5) during pregame warm ups before the NFC Wild Card Round game | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Chuba Hubbard was really good in 2024, so there's reason to think a healthy Hubbard can bounce back in 2026 and put the Rico Dowdle concerns to rest. But even if he doesn't, the Panthers were probably wise to let Dowdle walk.

Rico Dowdle's 2025 season had good numbers, but they were insanely skewed by a two-week span in which Dowdle was admittedly playing like the best back in the NFL. He was literally historic against the Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys.

But after that, he was not very good. The running game had negative EPA per play after Week 10. That's half a season of bad results. Dowdle never topped 60 yards in a game following the upset over the Green Bay Packers.

His total EPA last year was -1.36. That's bad. His EPA/play also helped illustrate that his success was more tied to scheme than anything else. The Panthers made him, not the other way around, and he wasn't that great anyway.

Plus, if you look at this chart, you can see that Dowdle wasn't doing anything irreplaceable. Dowdle had a good yards per carry average, but his rush yards over expected was pretty bad.

Derrick Henry as a Raven pic.twitter.com/4nlEnwbLWE
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 29, 2026

He had negative RYOE, and he was categorized around Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rhamondre Stevenson, Joe Mixon, and Kareem Hunt. That's not really a good group of running backs. For what it's worth, Hubbard had worse YPC numbers, but his RYOE were positive, even if barely.

By that metric, which is more predictive of success, Hubbard was the better back, so the Panthers may be just fine without Dowdle. Plus, there are multiple examples of Dowdle missing his blockers or straight up ignoring them, which cost him yards.

Like bro cut behind Tremble he ain’t running up the field just to do cardio 😭 https://t.co/KL6RzsfcTk pic.twitter.com/ydfsgJVUaN
— Delusional Panthers Fan 🐈‍⬛ (@panthers_nation) May 28, 2026

There are two plays in the X thread above that serve as examples. Dowdle's near game-winner on the screen against the Falcons would've been a touchdown if he'd just stayed patient, but he ran past three blockers to try and make one man miss, stepping out of bounds in the process.

In the other, Dowdle had a huge gain that would've been bigger if he'd simply cut inside of Tommy Tremble, who was in position to block Xavier McKinney. Instead, he sped around Tremble and into the safety's arms.

Dowdle was crucial to getting the Panthers to the playoffs, that much is true. But they're not going to miss him that much, especially if Hubbard's RYOE is indicative of a better year ahead.

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