Why They Win: Can Patriots Stop Bills' Prolific Offense?
In the words of The Office's Michael Scott ... how the turntables.
For years, death, taxes, the AFC title game, and two wins over the Buffalo Bills were the only certainties in the New England region thanks to the local Patriots' dominance. With Tom Brady having gone south, the Bills have taken their revenge, having won four of the last five meetings between the two teams, including a 47-17 shellacking in Western New York last January.
The next get-together, slated for Thursday night, opens the yearly couple at an unusually late point in the season, one that will carry a significant amount of postseason weight as the AFC bracket begins to form. As it stands, New England, looking to recover from a narrow yet heartbreaking holiday loss to Minnesota last Thursday, would be the first team left off. This week's visitors, fresh off Detroit-based Thanksgiving hijinks straight out of a movie, have won two in a row after consecutive losses bunched up the AFC East divisional race.
How do the Patriots rediscover that dominant spark against a Bills group whose appetite for revenge is far from whetted?
What: Buffalo Bills (8-3) @ New England Patriots (6-5)
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
When: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video/WFXT
Who's Won: New England leads series 77-47-1 (last: 47-17 BUF, 1/22)
Who's Favored: BUF -3.5
Kicking Bass
Bills kicker Tyler Bass was just awarded the AFC's Player of the Month Award, an honor earned through 12 consecutive successful triples and 44 points over the last four games.
Having a reliable kicker is a vital tool that a lot of teams look over ... just look at the pre-Greg Zuerlein New York Jets ... but when you're a team like the Bills, a team absolutely spoiled rotten with offensive fire power (Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and more) ... isn't having a most "valuable" kicker a bit of disappointment?
Moving the ball has been no problem for the Bills, but the frequent Bass appearances have prevented them from pulling away with the AFC East lead. A New England defense, one that could be best defined by a "bend, don't break" reputation (and even the breaking is spectacular if Matthew Judon has anything to say about it), has a fantastic opportunity ahead, especially considering the fact they've allowed touchdowns on only 51.5 percent of opponents' red zone possession, good for seventh in the league entering Week 13 play.
Ticked Off
The best way to neutralize the Bills' offense ... one that infamously dealt its full wrath to the Patriots back in January ... is to keep Allen and his cohorts off the field. That, of course, relies upon a consistent offense and the Bills are responsible for the primary argument against optimism for New England's offense: no Mac Jones argument is perhaps complete until a participant brings up his minimalist first start against the Bills, a 14-10 triumph in Orchard Park that saw him throw a mere three passes.
It'd be no surprise to see the Patriots try and pull this one off with the multi-faceted talents of Rhamondre Stevenson (the aforementioned debut's hero, Damien Harris won't play but Stevenson still picked up 78 yards on 24 carries). But Jones is steadily proving that he's capable of shouldering a larger game-day load. He has earned a triple-digit passer rating in each of the last two weeks and posted a career-best 382 yards on Thanksgiving. Basically, Jones appears to slowly be finding himself as a statistically reliable NFL starter, an increasingly valued skill in this day and age (look no further than, say, the Dallas Cowboys' decision to stick with Dak Prescott despite Cooper Rush's relative mastery in the early going).
When it comes to Buffalo, Jones appears to be handling the skills necessary to take advantage of one of the opponent's most dire stats: the Bills' defense allows an average adversary's drive to last 3:04, the second-worst in the league ahead of only Atlanta. Between Jones' growing consistency and Stevenson's ability to pound out yardage, New England has a prime opportunity to dominate the time of possession battle.
All In on Allen
It's no secret that almost any success that the Patriots have had stems from the Judon and Deatrich Wise pass rush. It also feels like a bit of a cop-out, an easy bullet, to claim that if the Patriots plan on doing anything noteworthy on Thursday, they'll have to raise the heat on Allen, but there's clear statistical evidence to determine the Patriots' fate in this regard: in an almost impressive sign of futility, the Patriots have failed to take down Allen in any of his last 72 dropbacks.
Since enduring an elbow injury, Allen hasn't been the same dominant force fans and enemies are accustomed to seeing since his 2018 debut. But there was a hint of the old Allen on display when he led a game-winning drive in the final minute against the Lions last week.
“All four of us, whoever’s rushing, have to work together,” Judon said of the plan to stop Allen. “We have to work together up front to keep him in front of us, force him to be a passer. He’s a very dangerous passer, but I think we’ll stay with that instead of him running all over us.”
If any group has the ability to make Allen uncomfortable, it's Judon and his compatriots. It'll not only be vital to the Patriots' playoff case but, on a personal level, it could be the difference in stealing the Defensive Player of the Year Award from Micah Parsons.
Geoff Magliocchetti is on Twitter @GeoffJMags
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