Belichick’s Field-Goal Decision against Colts Matches his Approach with Patriots in 2021

The Patriots head coach will always do what’s best for the team, and Saturday night’s call to opt for a fourth-quarter field goal falls into line with his overall strategy.

With nine minutes remaining in Saturday night’s 27-17 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick made a decision, which continues to be second-guessed by fans and media alike. With his team trailing 20-7 with 8:57 remaining, Belichick opted for a 25-yard Nick Folk field goal while They did so facing fourth down on the Indianapolis seven-yard line.

While many will point to this decision as the conservatism of the Pats’ head coach getting the best of him, choosing to take the points has been the Belichickian strategy of choice for the majority of 2021.

In the immediate aftermath of Saturday’s contest, the Pats head coach advised the media that he decided to attempt the field goal, because he felt it was ‘best for the team.’

When meeting with the media on Monday, a more reflective Belichick offered a bit more of an explanation of his thinking.

"I thought there was enough time we'd have enough possessions to score ten points,” Belichick said. “I didn't feel great about converting a fourth-and-goal from the 7. Had there been less time and the situation been different, there’s a point where you would go for it, or I would go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 7, absolutely. II didn’t think in that game situation, it would have been the best decision.”

In essence, Belichick believed that it was more feasible to score a touchdown and field goal, as opposed to two touchdowns in the final minutes of the game. Due to the time left on the clock, he wanted to take the sure three points instead of ending the drive with zero points, and a continued 13-point deficit.

Again, it was not an unfamiliar strategy.

Through fourteen games in 2021, Belichick has opted for the field goal in a few high profile positions situations. Most notably, the Pats head coach tabbed Folk to attempt a 56-yard field goal on a rain-soaked night in Foxboro, Massachusetts, in hopes of lifting the Pats past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week Four. Facing fourth-and-three from the Tampa 37-yard line, Folk’s kick bounced off the upright. Belichick went for the immediate lead, rather than attempt to gain three yards, needed for a first down.

As a result, many began to note that Belichick has seemingly been hesitant to put the fate of the game in the hands of his quarterback, Mac Jones. Given that Jones is a still-developing rookie, there may be a shred of truth to that point. To be fair, his admission of not ‘feeling great’ about his team’s chances to convert the fourth-down attempt in Week Fifteen lends additional credence to Belichick’s reluctance to take a chance with Jones at the helm.

However, while some will take delight in pushing the narrative that these decisions clearly demonstrate a lack of trust in his quarterback, Belichick’s actions are more so taken as a result of his confidence in New England’s defense to both make key stops, and create additional possessions. In Week Four, Belichick attempted to gain the one-point advantage, believing that his defense would make the stop when needed. Considering that this stop needed to be made against Tom Brady and a potent Bucs’ offense, Belichick’s actions show amazing confidence in his preventive unit.

On Saturday, Belichick once again put his faith in the ability of his defense, this time to create additional possessions. On what should have been third-and-goal from the Indianapolis two-yard line, offensive lineman Michael Onwenu was whistled for a costly false start penalty, knocking the Pats’ back five yards. Now facing third-and-seven, New England failed up a pass play from Jones to Hunter Henry, which fell incomplete. As a result, the Patriots settled for the field goal.

Here is where Belichick’s strategy comes into play:

Had the Patriots failed to convert on fourth-down, they would have continued to trail by 13 as time continued to drain from the clock. Instead, the Pats opted to cut the lead to ten, and take the certain points on the leg of their reliable kicker. Much to the chagrin of the analytical zealots, it was a strategy that nearly worked. On their ensuing scoring drive, the Patriots cut Indianapolis’ lead to three, with a seven-play, 82-yard drive, resulting in a seven-yard touchdown strike from Jones to Hunter Henry, cutting the Colts’ lead to three. However, this time, the Patriots defense would yield a 67-yard touchdown run by Jonathan Taylor to secure the victory for Indianapolis.

Ultimately, the decision resulted in four-less points for the Patriots heading into the game’s final minutes. While second-guessing Belichick’s decision is fair, considering the outcome, the narrative might look slightly different if the Patriots had forced a punt or made a stop late in the fourth quarter.

Would Belichick do things differently this time? Based on his comments to the media on Monday, it does not appear so.

“At the end of the game, being able to, especially in a dome, have a chance at a 50-plus-yard field goal, I think it’s a lot better chance than scoring a touchdown and having a six-point differential as opposed to a three-point differential relative to the chances of converting a fourth-and-7,” Belichick said. “But at some point, I definitely would have kept the offense on the field on fourth-and-7 with less time or no timeouts.”

At the end of the day, Bill Belichick did what he felt was best for the team. It did not work per his plans on Saturday. However, when considering the amount of success his decisions have provided the New England Patriots throughout his two-plus decades of coaching tenure, trusting Belichick’s intuition is still a pretty sound strategy.