NFL coaches on the hot seat at midseason

Ratings are down and penalties are up, but there are still a few certainties around this part of the NFL calendar. The annual wave of firings will begin in about two months, and a handful of coaches should feel their seats heating up right now. Last season six teams switched coaches at some point, which wasn’t too far from the league’s average in recent years. There’s little reason to doubt there will be a similar number of vacancies by the end of Black Monday, which follows the Week 17 action of New Year’s Day. Here are the five coaches who could face the axe at or before season’s end, ranked by degree from a leather seat on a summer day to an accidental press of the seat warmer button. (Honorable mention: Marvin Lewis and Rex Ryan.) — Jonathan Jones

NFL coaches on the hot seat at midseason

Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars

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Firing offensive coordinator Greg Olson is putting a Band-Aid on a bullet wound—no seat is hotter than Bradley’s. Everyone likes him, and that’s probably how he bought himself another year or two despite an uninspiring win-loss record. Jaguars owner Shad Khan has demonstrated more patience than most, but the picture is now clear after 14 wins over three and a half seasons. The Jags have had top-five picks in every draft since he has been there and still have not beaten a team that went on to make the playoffs. The Jaguars were just embarrassed on national television by the Titans, and with a tough stretch ahead, they could very well be 2–11 by the time they close the season with their three division foes.

Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts

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All signs point to this being the end of the road for Pagano even if the Colts win their division. Pagano staved off being fired late last year, but frustratingly familiar results make it likely his time will come this year. It’s tough to figure out how much of the blame he should shoulder, though. Colts GM Ryan Grigson’s miserable drafts in recent years have contributed to the stagnation, and many (rightly) feel his seat should be just as warm, if not hotter. But in the NFL world of 2016, the buck stops with the head coach. The Colts made the wild-card round, then the divisional round, then the AFC title game in consecutive seasons, but they finished 8–8 last year and seem destined for another finish around .500. Indianapolis clearly has something special in Andrew Luck, and the franchise won’t give Pagano a sixth year with him.

Jeff Fisher, Los Angeles Rams

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As soon as Jeff Fisher said it on Hard Knocks, we knew that it would haunt him this season: “I’m not [expletive] going 7–9, or 8–8 ,or 9–7, O.K.? Or 10–6, for that matter.” Well, the Rams are 3–4 and on pace for Fisher’s 16th season at 8–8 or worse. He hasn’t finished above .500 since 2008 and he could extend that streak another year. There was talk at the start of the season that contract extensions for Fisher and GM Les Snead were imminent, which remains baffling three consecutive losses later. L.A. is in the bottom-third of the league in most important offensive categories, and its defense, while above league-average, has a collection of talent that should be even better. Will Fisher get fired? Probably not. He’s the Houdini of NFL head coaches. But that doesn’t mean his seat shouldn’t be on fire after all this mediocrity.

Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions

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Matt Stafford is playing at the highest level of his career, and the Lions are 4–4. They have one good win (a controversial upset of the Eagles at home) and three bad losses (Titans, Bears and Texans). Sunday’s loss in Houston saw the most confounding coaching decision of the week. Down seven points with three minutes left and all three timeouts, Caldwell tried an onside kick. He didn’t trust his defense and saw something on special teams, but of course Houston recovered and drained the clock. Caldwell went 11–5 in 2014 and had a 7–9 record in '15 that probably should have been 9–7 if not for an Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary and an uncalled illegal batting penalty. But a middling season filled with bad losses and strange late-game calls puts on the seat warmers.

Mike McCoy, San Diego Chargers

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The vibe around McCoy isn’t nearly as ominous as it was a month ago. Behind some incredible play from Philip Rivers and in spite of multiple key injuries, the Chargers beat two of the league’s top teams in consecutive weeks in the Broncos and Falcons. On top of that, they are competing in the toughest division in football. But take a step back from the recent history and look at the whole picture: McCoy is 5–14 in games decided by eight points or fewer, and he’s only won seven of his past 24 games. There are some wins left on San Diego’s schedule (Tennessee, Miami, Tampa Bay and Cleveland), but if those turn to losses, watch out.