Raiders Could Deliver One of Biggest Early Upsets of Season

Since the Las Vegas Raiders moved from Oakland, they have beaten the Kansas City Chiefs just three times. One of those wins was at the end of last season, when they beat an injured Chiefs team 14-12.

The 2026 Raiders have a chance to beat the Chiefs in consecutive matchups, something their organization hasn't done since 2012. They will first meet in Week 4 of next season, where the Chiefs will be on the road to face the new-look Raiders. How can the Raiders pull off one of the biggest upsets of the early NFL season?

Health a Big Factor

The last time the Raiders faced Patrick Mahomes, he led his team to a dominant 31 - 0 victory. I don't think the Raiders would've won their final game of the season if he were playing instead of Chris Oladokun and Shane Buechele. However, if Mahomes' injury continues to linger by the time they face off in Week 4, it can affect many aspects of how this matchup is played.

Maxx Crosby is one of the most competitive players in the NFL, and it's apparent that he turns it up a notch whenever they're playing the Chiefs. If Mahomes can't escape the pocket like he usually can, I expect Crosby to have a big game behind their improved defensive line and linebacker corps.

Things To Be Wary Of

Even with Mahomes not being at 100%, the Chiefs should still be a team the Raiders need to be wary of. They have all of that championship experience built into their roster, and they just added the Super Bowl MVP at running back.

Another thing that should concern the Raiders is that Kirk Cousins is 0-5 against the Chiefs in his entire career. That's why I believe if the Raiders want to pull off the upset, this has to be the game Fernando Mendoza steps in and becomes the starter.

May 2, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) speaks during a news conference at the team’s Rookie Minicamp at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images | Candice Ward-Imagn Images

The Raiders signed Cousins specifically not to throw Mendoza into the fire too early, and I can't imagine a bigger inferno than making his career start against the Chiefs. However, I think he has all the tools and will to win to catch the Chiefs off guard.

If the Raiders want to pull something off that hasn't been done in a decade, they can't play it safe. Cousins will do what he can to win games, but he won't be enough to overcome the Chiefs. Mendoza showed in the National Championship that he'll do what it takes to win big games. The competition may be drastically different, but his spirit is still there.

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