The First AFC West Rival the Raiders Will Surpass

The Las Vegas Raiders have made significant progress on their roster early in the offseason. The progress they have made was legitimate. Each roster decision they have made has made a lot of sense. They have improved and will continue to do so. However, that is every team's goal.

Las Vegas has made tangible progress on its roster. Yet, Klint Kubiak and a new-look Raiders have a huge hole to dig out of if they want to consistently compete within the AFC West. Las Vegas not only wants success within and outside the division, but they also want sustained success.

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Looking Long Term

Oct 1, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) celebrates after sacking Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

When looking at who Las Vegas will surpass first in their rise up the AFC West, it must be understood that the Raiders' front office is looking much further into the future than just 2026. That will be at the forefront of deciding which team in the division the Raiders will overtake first.

For instance, with no Patrick Mahomes, the Raiders could be just as good, if not better than the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026. However, all of the information available right now points to Kansas City being the better team and organization when discussing things long-term.

That effectively removes Kansas City from the three teams the Raiders can move ahead of in the AFC West over the long term. The Chiefs have owned the division for the past decade, have a solid coaching staff, and will get a motivated Mahomes back sooner or later.

It remains to be seen, but with Andy Reid, the Chiefs may even be solid with Justin Fields holding down the fort until Mahomes returns, leaving the Los Angeles Chargers and the Denver Broncos as the only two options for the Raiders to catch in what is one of the league's toughest divisions.

Jan 4, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty (2) carries the ball against Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Drue Tranquill (23) in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Broncos had many close calls during the 2025 season, yet they did make it to the conference championship. It could also be argued that they would have beaten the New England Patriots if they had not lost their starting quarterback to an injury. That is a fair argument.

Regardless, even with the improvements they have made, there are still too many roster moves for both teams to make to legitimately say the Raiders are better than the reigning AFC West Champions and one of the AFC Championship participants. Sean Payton has a solid operation going in Denver.

That leaves the Chargers as the most likely team and organization that the Raiders will catch within the division. This could happen as soon as the 2026 season. Between the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers, Los Angeles has the least stable team and organization of them all.

Unlike the Raiders, they may have a set way of doing things, but the Chargers' roster is not all that much better than what the Raiders will have at the beginning of the season. The Chargers are the most likely team for Las Vegas to pass first within the division.