Seahawks QB Geno Smith Playing For Long-Term Security in 2023
RENTON, Wash. - All smiles during their press conference at the VMAC on Thursday, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith, coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider all had ample reasons for being jubilant about the player and franchise agreeing to a new three-year contract worth up to $105 million.
As all the pieces of the puzzle have come together over the past few days, the deal couldn't possibly be more team-friendly for Seattle while locking up a Pro Bowl signal caller. A true "middle class" quarterback contract where such contracts didn't exist prior, the structure pays out $25 million per year over three seasons with $30 million in performance escalators. Per OverTheCap.com, Smith's deal also carries a low $10.4 million cap hit in 2023, providing much-needed financial flexibility for organization.
For comparative perspective, Smith's cap number for next season ranks 19th among NFL quarterbacks behind the likes of Pittsburgh Steelers backup Mitch Trubisky and New Orleans Saints backup Jameis Winston. It also takes up only 4.6 percent of the team's cap next season, which the veteran said that was by design to an extent to help Schneider and Carroll acquire additional talent to build around him heading into free agency next week.
"I believe in team, I know how important it is for everyone to have an opportunity and so I trust these guys," Smith told reporters on Thursday. "I understand that these guys are building a championship team and that's what we're about here, and so I really wanted to be a part of that. I'm just happy that we're able to find common ground that was balanced and worked for everyone.”
Coming off a career season where he earned Comeback Player of the Year honors, Smith stands to benefit immensely from the deal as well. With incentives baked into the contract, as long as he continues to improve as he expects he will after throwing 30 touchdown passes and completing a league-best 69.8 percent of his passes in 2022, he has a chance to potentially earn top-10 quarterback money.
But as Smith acknowledged on Thursday, after spending seven seasons as a backup with three teams before last year's improbable breakout, he understands the NFL operates on a year-to-year basis. While signing a multi-year deal was "pivotal" in the negotiations process, by accepting a contract with only $40 million in guarantees and little of that money paid out after 2023, he's gambling on himself to perform as an elite quarterback and earn the final two years of the deal.
Digging deeper into contract specifics, Smith can earn $2 million in roster bonuses next March by throwing for at least 4,282 yards, tossing at least 30 touchdown passes, completing at least 69.755 percent of his pass attempts, posting a 100.84 passer rating or higher, and leading Seattle to the playoffs and/or winning 10 games with a minimum of 80 percent play time. If he manages to hit all of those criteria, he will earn $5 million in additional money, pushing his bonus up to $15 million.
Based on the terms of the contract, Smith will have the same opportunity in 2024 to earn up to $15 million in additional bonuses through performance escalators. In other words, the Seahawks dangled an expensive carrot in front of Smith and ultimately said, "Let's see if you can do it again." Wanting to stay in the Pacific Northwest and confident in his talent, the quarterback obliged.
“I just believe in my ability," Smith remarked. "I believe that with the guys around me, with the coaches that we have, I think the future's very bright for us and so with the contracts and the incentives, it's just a way, obviously, for both parties to make it work. It allows the team room and space to do what they need to do, but it also gives me an opportunity to be one of the top 10 paid quarterbacks, which is something that I believe I am. So with all those things, I think it worked out pretty great.”
Even considering how well Smith played last year and the talented supporting cast at his disposal, there's no shortage of pressure on him. With Seattle having built in easy outs in the contract after 2023 with an absorbable $17 million dead cap hit if released next year and minimal remaining guarantees, there's a lot on the line and equaling or exceeding his numbers from a year ago to hit the aforementioned escalators won't necessarily be easy.
Based on the fine details of the three-year contract, the Seahawks have guarded themselves against potential regression from Geno Smith while also including escalators to reward him if he thrives.
Statistically, Smith's near-70 percent completion rate may be the toughest incentive to reach, as only 16 players in NFL history have posted such accuracy in a single season with 300 or more pass attempts. If there's reason for optimism on this front, he did complete 68.4 percent of his passes in four games in 2021, suggesting his elite accuracy isn't a fluke in Shane Waldron's offense.
Throwing 30 touchdowns in today's NFL isn't the same accomplishment it was two decades ago, but Seahawks quarterbacks have only reached that mark seven times, with Russell Wilson doing it five times, Dave Krieg once, and Smith joining the club in 2022. As for posting a 100.9 passer rating or better, that has only happened six times in franchise history with Wilson being the only player to achieve the feat.
As for a playoff berth and/or 10 wins, though the Seahawks made the postseason last year and appear to be an ascending team with Super Bowl aspirations, they will face a far more daunting schedule next season. With the 49ers not going anywhere and the Rams hoping to be healthier and bounce back from a tough 5-12 season, the NFC West should be challenging as always.
If Smith comes short of several of those marks and regresses from his renaissance season, Seattle has granted itself the flexibility to shift directions at quarterback without hitch. It's the risk the savvy veteran signed on for.
But with no shortage of confidence in his own talent and his teammates, Smith isn't looking forward to 2024 or 2025 and he's laser-focused on next season. And, if Seattle does decide to draft a quarterback early in April's NFL draft, he won't let that decision change his mentality or approach that helped pave the way for his surprising success story. He'll keep grinding and serve as a mentor the way Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning did for him earlier in his career.
Understanding where he must improve to play even better in his second season as a starter orchestrating Waldron's scheme and steadfast in his belief his best football remains ahead of him, Smith's eager to prove himself once again. As long as he plays to his own lofty expectations and the team wins games, questions about his long-term security under center with the Seahawks will take care of themselves and the franchise will happily pay him accordingly.
"Just being around this organization, the type of coaches we have, the type of players on this team, the leadership from top to bottom, it's all about getting better and all about competing every single day. I think that that breeds excellence. So I believe that although we did some great things last year, the sky's the limit for what we can do this year and I think we can improve on in so many ways. That's really what I look forward to. That's all my offseason is about, improving and coming back a better player.”
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