How Sunday's Week 15 Results Impacted Seattle Seahawks Playoff Odds
With the Seattle Seahawks set to battle the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football, their slim playoff hopes received a small boost thanks to Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns at Lambeau Field, Mayfield led the Buccaneers to a 34-20 win over the Packers on the road, improving their record to 7-7 and staying atop the NFC South. Per the New York Times playoff simulator, coupled with Minnesota losing to Cincinnati on Saturday, Green Bay's eighth loss improved Seattle's wild card odds to 31 percent.
Unfortunately, the Seahawks had to watch the Rams, who hold a tiebreaker over them after sweeping both NFC West matchups earlier in the season, hold on to beat the Commanders 28-20 at SoFi Stadium. The victory improved Los Angeles' record to 7-7, putting it in the seventh seed behind Minnesota, which stayed in the sixth spot based off of a better conference record.
Following the win, Los Angeles now has a 56 percent chance to make the postseason. Despite currently being the higher seed in the wild card standings, Minnesota's playoff odds dropped to 50 percent with a pair of games against division-leading Detroit in the next three weeks. Green Bay now only has a 29 percent chance of making the playoffs after a devastating home loss.
While Washington tried to make things interesting late, Los Angeles built a commanding 21-point lead in the fourth quarter before fending off a late rally for a 28-20 home win to stay in the seventh playoff spot.
© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
After leading 28-7 at one point in the second half, the Rams nearly coughed up a three touchdown lead with Commanders backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett tossing a pair of touchdown passes in the fourth quarter. But Washington couldn't make one last stop with all three timeouts as Los Angeles picked up a first down to bleed out the clock inside two minutes to play.
Heading into Monday's must-win primetime contest against the Eagles, the Seahawks would dramatically improve their playoff chances with a win at Lumen Field. A victory would put them back at the .500 mark with a 7-7 record and though they would still be behind the Rams and Vikings, their wild card chances would jump to 51 percent.
But with a loss, which would extend coach Pete Carroll's longest losing streak since joining the franchise in 2010, thanks to the Rams not slipping up at home, the Seahawks would be on the precipice of playoff elimination with only one conference game left on the schedule. Dropping yet another NFC game to Philadelphia at home would cut wild card odds in half to 15 percent with three games remaining to play.
Ultimately, Seattle should be pleased with how things played out this weekend with both NFC North competitors for wild card spots suffering difficult losses, especially with Green Bay now being two games under .500. But those helpful defeats won't matter much at all if Carroll's team can't take care of business on Monday night, as a fifth straight loss would make returning to the playoffs quite difficult.
