How Brian Fleury Can Make the Seahawks Less Predictable on Offense

Instead of hammering on the especially extreme examples of Brian Fleury’s shortcomings so far, let’s focus on a simple one that could go a long way.

Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Fleury during the first quarter against the New England Patriots. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Through five games, I have many criticisms of Brian Fleury as offensive coordinator and playcaller of the Seattle Seahawks. Some of them, like the zone run to George Holani with 18 seconds left in the first half last week against the San Francisco 49ers, are edge cases, unlikely to come up again. But what about one that comes up a couple dozen times a game?

The First Down Playbook

Let’s toss the Patriots game, since Fleury lost his quarterback after five plays and had to put Drew Lock in cold off the bench. By my count, the Seahawks have run the ball on first down 19 of 29 opportunities against the Cardinals (65.5%), 14 of 36 against the Commanders (38.9%), 18 of 27 against the Chargers (66.7%), and 19 of 29 against the 49ers (65.5%).

Seattle Seahawks running back Emanuel Wilson (23) runs the ball against San Francisco 49ers safety Malik Mustapha (6) and cornerback Renardo Green (0). | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Outside of the Commanders game, where Seattle fell behind and stuck their lead running back in the doghouse early, the Seahawks love running it on first down. In that game, Seattle ran it on 9 of 15 first downs (60%) in the first half, just to illustrate how circumstances dictated the change-up. I suspect the roughly 66% clip at which they do it is #1 in the league.

Setting Yourself Up For Failure

Here’s the thing. The Seahawks aren’t just bad at running on first down. They’re abysmal at it. They have a -0.248 Rush EPA on those runs, 30th in the league. Their overall Rush EPA is somehow even worse at -0.275 (also 30th). They don’t run the ball well in any way, shape, or form. And this data includes games where they had Jadarian Price.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) and offensive coordinator Brian Fleury during minicamp. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Their Dropback EPA isn’t amazing, but at 0.098 and 17th in the league, it’s better than their rushing attack by a longshot. And here’s the part that’ll really blow your minds. The Seahawks Dropback EPA on first down is 0.259, 4th in the NFL. It’s not hard to put the pieces together. This team thrives on early down passing, but they rarely do it.

The Obvious Solution

If the Seahawks opened things up on first downs, would there be some diminishing returns? Probably. But something has to change here. The only reason why the Seahawks don’t have one of the worst offenses in football is all the short-field scoring drives they’ve had. They’re 26th in EPA, a catastrophic -0.07 overall EPA per play. It’s not sustainable.

Seattle Seahawks running back George Holani (36) fumbles the ball while running against the San Francisco 49ers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The current recipe is to run on first down for minimal gain, then either run again on second down for minimal gain or pass with middling effectiveness, and then pass ineffectively on third down. The recipe needs to change. Throw it more early, get into more favorable second and third downs. And maybe, eventually, we can get back to a balanced attack.

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